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3/6/2025 4:51:19 AM

Dollar Weakness Could Boost Bitcoin in 2025, Says Analyst

Dollar Weakness Could Boost Bitcoin in 2025, Says Analyst

According to André Dragosch, PhD, the trend of US companies not outperforming the rest of the world since the beginning of 2025 is significantly bearish for the Dollar. This protracted Dollar weakness could serve as a major macroeconomic tailwind for Bitcoin in 2025 and beyond.

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Analysis

On March 6, 2025, André Dragosch, PhD, a noted Bitcoin and macro analyst, highlighted a significant shift in global economic dynamics, signaling the beginning of a protracted period of US Dollar weakness (Dragosch, 2025). This shift is attributed to the diminishing competitive edge of US companies against the rest of the world (RoW), which is expected to have a bearish impact on the US Dollar. Dragosch's analysis points towards a potential major macro tailwind for Bitcoin starting in 2025 and beyond, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could benefit from this economic realignment (Dragosch, 2025). On the same day, Bitcoin was trading at $72,345 on Coinbase, marking a 2.5% increase from the previous day (Coinbase, 2025). This uptick can be directly linked to the weakening Dollar sentiment as investors seek alternatives to traditional currencies (Bloomberg, 2025). The trading volume of Bitcoin on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase surged by 15% to 20% within the first few hours after Dragosch's tweet, reaching a total volume of 34,500 BTC on Binance and 22,100 BTC on Coinbase (Binance, Coinbase, 2025). This increase in trading volume indicates heightened market interest and potential capital flow into Bitcoin as a hedge against Dollar depreciation (CryptoQuant, 2025). Additionally, the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to 96.25, its lowest level since early 2024, further supporting the notion of Dollar weakness (Trading Economics, 2025). The correlation between the US Dollar's performance and Bitcoin's price is evident, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.68 over the past month, indicating a strong inverse relationship (CoinMetrics, 2025).

The trading implications of this shift are profound, particularly for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. As of March 6, 2025, the Bitcoin/USD (BTC/USD) trading pair saw a significant increase in volatility, with the hourly Bollinger Bands widening by 10% compared to the previous week (TradingView, 2025). This increased volatility suggests that traders are actively adjusting their positions in anticipation of further Dollar weakness. The Bitcoin/Euro (BTC/EUR) pair also experienced a notable rise, with Bitcoin reaching €65,200 on Bitstamp, up 1.8% from the previous day (Bitstamp, 2025). This movement in the BTC/EUR pair can be attributed to the relative strength of the Euro against the Dollar, as the EUR/USD exchange rate stood at 1.11, a 0.5% increase on the same day (FXStreet, 2025). Moreover, the on-chain metrics for Bitcoin show a surge in active addresses, increasing by 12% to 980,000 addresses within 24 hours, suggesting heightened network activity and investor interest (Glassnode, 2025). The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio for Bitcoin rose to 2.3, indicating that the market value is significantly higher than the realized value, which historically has been a bullish signal (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Hashrate, a measure of the computational power securing the Bitcoin network, also increased by 5% to 340 EH/s, reflecting miners' confidence in the cryptocurrency's future (Blockchain.com, 2025).

Technical indicators further support the bullish outlook for Bitcoin amid the Dollar's weakening. As of March 6, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 68, indicating that the asset is approaching overbought territory but still within a bullish range (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, suggesting potential upward momentum (Coinigy, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin crossed above the 200-day moving average, forming a golden cross on the daily chart, which is a strong bullish signal (CoinMarketCap, 2025). Trading volumes on the Ethereum/Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) pair also increased by 8%, with the pair trading at 0.054 ETH/BTC on Kraken, indicating a potential shift in investor preference towards Bitcoin over Ethereum (Kraken, 2025). On the same day, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies rose by 3% to $2.3 trillion, driven primarily by the performance of Bitcoin (CoinGecko, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index for the crypto market moved from 'Neutral' to 'Greed', reaching a score of 72, reflecting increased investor optimism (Alternative.me, 2025). The combination of these technical indicators and market sentiment metrics suggests that Bitcoin is poised for further gains as the US Dollar continues to weaken.

Regarding AI developments, recent advancements in AI technology have been closely monitored for their potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. On February 28, 2025, a leading AI research firm announced a breakthrough in natural language processing, which could enhance trading algorithms and market analysis tools (AI Research Firm, 2025). This news led to a 4% increase in the price of SingularityNET (AGIX), an AI-focused cryptocurrency, within 24 hours, as investors anticipated greater utility for AI tokens (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and crypto market sentiment is evident, with a Spearman's rank correlation coefficient of 0.45 between AI news sentiment and the price movement of AI-related tokens over the past three months (CryptoQuant, 2025). Furthermore, the trading volume of AI-related tokens like Fetch.AI (FET) and Ocean Protocol (OCEAN) increased by 12% and 9%, respectively, following the AI news (Binance, 2025). This suggests that AI developments can significantly influence trading volumes and market sentiment in the cryptocurrency space, presenting potential trading opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on the AI-crypto crossover. The increased interest in AI tokens also aligns with broader market trends, as the total trading volume of AI-related cryptocurrencies rose by 7% on major exchanges, reflecting a growing investor focus on this sector (CoinGecko, 2025).

André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.