The cryptocurrency market is bracing for potential volatility this week as key macroeconomic events from the US economy are set to influence risk assets, including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and altcoins. On Thursday, traders should closely monitor the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the third quarter, scheduled for 8:30 AM Eastern Time, as highlighted in the GoMoon Macro Calendar Part 2. This critical economic indicator measures the overall health of the US economy, and any deviation from the expected annualized growth rate of 3.0 percent could trigger significant movements in both stock and crypto markets. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure may bolster risk appetite, potentially driving institutional inflows into crypto assets, while a weaker reading could heighten recession fears, leading to sell-offs across markets. Additionally, on Friday at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, will be released. Economists anticipate a month-over-month increase of 0.2 percent for September, and any surprises could influence expectations for interest rate decisions, directly impacting crypto market sentiment. Given the historical correlation between macro events and Bitcoin's price action, traders need to prepare for potential swings in BTC/USD, which was trading at approximately 67,800 as of 10:00 AM Eastern Time on October 29, 2024, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

The trading implications of these macro events are significant for crypto investors looking to capitalize on cross-market dynamics. A robust GDP report on Thursday could strengthen the US dollar, potentially exerting downward pressure on Bitcoin and major altcoins like Ethereum (ETH/USD at 2,620 as of 10:00 AM Eastern Time on October 29, 2024) in the short term, as investors might pivot to traditional safe-haven assets. However, if the GDP data signals economic strength without overheating, it could encourage risk-on behavior, driving BTC and ETH higher alongside stock indices like the S&P 500, which often correlates positively with crypto during bullish macro conditions. On Friday, the PCE data could further shape market direction. If inflation readings come in below expectations, signaling a dovish stance from the Fed, crypto assets could rally, with trading volumes on pairs like BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT likely to spike on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase. According to historical trends observed on TradingView, Bitcoin often sees a 2-3 percent price movement within 24 hours of major inflation data releases. Conversely, hotter-than-expected PCE numbers could reignite fears of aggressive rate hikes, potentially triggering a drop in crypto prices and a shift of institutional money back to bonds or equities. Traders should set tight stop-losses and monitor order book depth for sudden liquidity shifts during these high-impact events.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's price action on the 4-hour chart shows a consolidation pattern near the 67,500-68,000 resistance zone as of 10:00 AM Eastern Time on October 29, 2024, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering at 55, indicating neutral momentum. Ethereum, trading at 2,620, exhibits similar consolidation around the 2,600 level, with 50-day and 200-day moving averages converging, signaling a potential breakout or breakdown depending on macro catalysts. Trading volumes for BTC/USDT on Binance reached 1.2 billion USD in the last 24 hours as of October 29, 2024, reflecting heightened trader interest ahead of these events, while ETH/USDT volumes stood at 680 million USD. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal a net inflow of 5,200 BTC into exchanges over the past 48 hours as of October 29, suggesting potential selling pressure if macro data disappoints. Stock market correlations remain critical, as the S&P 500 futures were up 0.3 percent at 10:00 AM Eastern Time on October 29, 2024, per Bloomberg data, hinting at a risk-on environment that could support crypto if sustained. Institutional flows between stocks and crypto are also evident, with recent filings showing increased allocations to Bitcoin ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) amid positive stock market sentiment, as reported by Yahoo Finance. These macro events could either reinforce or disrupt this correlation, making it essential for traders to watch both GDP and PCE outcomes.

In terms of stock-crypto market dynamics, a positive GDP reading on Thursday could lift crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase Global (COIN), which was trading at 178.50 USD as of market close on October 28, 2024, per Nasdaq data, alongside broader tech indices. This could further drive retail and institutional interest in crypto assets, potentially increasing trading volumes for BTC/USD and ETH/USD by 10-15 percent within 48 hours post-release, based on historical patterns observed during similar macro events. Conversely, a disappointing PCE report on Friday could dampen risk appetite, pushing capital out of crypto and into defensive stocks or treasuries, as institutional investors often rebalance portfolios during inflationary uncertainty. Monitoring these cross-market movements offers traders unique opportunities to hedge positions or capitalize on volatility using derivatives like BTC futures on the CME, which saw open interest rise by 8 percent week-over-week as of October 29, 2024, according to CME Group data. By staying attuned to both macro releases and stock market reactions, crypto traders can better navigate the upcoming volatility and position themselves for potential gains.

FAQ:
What impact could the US GDP data have on Bitcoin prices?
The US GDP data, scheduled for release on Thursday at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, could significantly influence Bitcoin prices. A stronger-than-expected growth rate of over 3.0 percent may boost risk appetite, potentially driving BTC/USD higher as institutional investors allocate more capital to crypto. However, a weaker reading could trigger sell-offs, pushing Bitcoin below key support levels like 67,000, as seen in past macro-driven corrections.

How does the PCE Price Index affect crypto market sentiment?
The PCE Price Index, released on Friday at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, is a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve. A lower-than-expected reading of 0.2 percent month-over-month could signal a dovish Fed policy, likely boosting crypto market sentiment and driving prices of assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum higher. Conversely, a higher reading could increase fears of rate hikes, negatively impacting crypto prices and trading volumes.