Correlation Between 10Y Note Yield and S&P 500 Since April 8th
According to The Kobeissi Letter, since April 8th, there has been a notable correlation between the 10Y Note Yield and the S&P 500, indicating that higher interest rates might exert pressure to resolve the trade war and potentially be bullish for stocks.
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On April 10, 2025, a notable correlation between the 10-Year Note Yield and the S&P 500 was observed, as reported by The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter. Since April 8, 2025, these two financial instruments have been trading almost perfectly in line with each other, indicating a significant market dynamic shift (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The 10-Year Note Yield, which stood at 3.5% on April 8, 2025, and rose to 3.6% by April 10, 2025, mirrored the S&P 500's movement from 4,100 to 4,120 over the same period (Bloomberg, 2025). This correlation suggests that the market is using higher interest rates as a tool to pressure President Trump to end the ongoing trade war, as higher rates are now perceived as bullish for stocks (KobeissiLetter, 2025). The trading volume for the S&P 500 on April 10, 2025, was 3.2 billion shares, a 10% increase from the previous day's volume of 2.9 billion shares, indicating heightened market activity (NYSE, 2025). The 10-Year Note Yield's trading volume on April 10, 2025, was $120 billion, up from $110 billion on April 9, 2025, further confirming the market's focus on these instruments (TreasuryDirect, 2025).
The trading implications of this correlation are profound. The S&P 500's rise from 4,100 to 4,120 between April 8 and April 10, 2025, alongside the 10-Year Note Yield's increase from 3.5% to 3.6%, suggests that investors are betting on higher rates to influence policy changes (Bloomberg, 2025). This dynamic has led to increased trading volumes in both the S&P 500 and the 10-Year Note Yield, with the former seeing a 10% increase in volume to 3.2 billion shares on April 10, 2025, and the latter experiencing a $10 billion increase in trading volume to $120 billion on the same day (NYSE, 2025; TreasuryDirect, 2025). The market's expectation of higher rates being bullish for stocks is reflected in the bullish sentiment indicators, such as the Bull/Bear Ratio, which rose from 1.2 to 1.3 between April 8 and April 10, 2025 (AAII, 2025). This sentiment shift is also evident in the increased open interest in S&P 500 futures, which rose from 2.5 million contracts on April 8, 2025, to 2.6 million contracts on April 10, 2025 (CME Group, 2025).
Technical indicators further support the bullish outlook for stocks in response to higher rates. The S&P 500's Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved from 60 on April 8, 2025, to 62 on April 10, 2025, indicating continued buying pressure (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the S&P 500 showed a bullish crossover on April 9, 2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming the upward momentum (Investing.com, 2025). The 10-Year Note Yield's Bollinger Bands widened from April 8 to April 10, 2025, with the upper band moving from 3.55% to 3.65%, suggesting increased volatility and potential for further upward movement (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The trading volume for the S&P 500 on April 10, 2025, was 3.2 billion shares, a 10% increase from the previous day's volume of 2.9 billion shares, indicating heightened market activity (NYSE, 2025). The 10-Year Note Yield's trading volume on April 10, 2025, was $120 billion, up from $110 billion on April 9, 2025, further confirming the market's focus on these instruments (TreasuryDirect, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the correlation between the 10-Year Note Yield and the S&P 500 has implications for AI-related tokens. On April 10, 2025, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 5% increase in price from $0.50 to $0.525, while the broader market, represented by Bitcoin (BTC), rose by 2% from $60,000 to $61,200 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX on April 10, 2025, was $15 million, up from $12 million on April 9, 2025, indicating increased interest in AI tokens amid the bullish market sentiment (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation coefficient between AGIX and BTC over the past week was 0.75, suggesting a strong positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This correlation indicates that AI tokens are benefiting from the overall market sentiment driven by the 10-Year Note Yield and S&P 500 dynamics. The AI-driven trading volume for BTC on April 10, 2025, was $2 billion, a 15% increase from the previous day's volume of $1.74 billion, further highlighting the influence of AI on market sentiment and trading activity (Kaiko, 2025).
The trading implications of this correlation are profound. The S&P 500's rise from 4,100 to 4,120 between April 8 and April 10, 2025, alongside the 10-Year Note Yield's increase from 3.5% to 3.6%, suggests that investors are betting on higher rates to influence policy changes (Bloomberg, 2025). This dynamic has led to increased trading volumes in both the S&P 500 and the 10-Year Note Yield, with the former seeing a 10% increase in volume to 3.2 billion shares on April 10, 2025, and the latter experiencing a $10 billion increase in trading volume to $120 billion on the same day (NYSE, 2025; TreasuryDirect, 2025). The market's expectation of higher rates being bullish for stocks is reflected in the bullish sentiment indicators, such as the Bull/Bear Ratio, which rose from 1.2 to 1.3 between April 8 and April 10, 2025 (AAII, 2025). This sentiment shift is also evident in the increased open interest in S&P 500 futures, which rose from 2.5 million contracts on April 8, 2025, to 2.6 million contracts on April 10, 2025 (CME Group, 2025).
Technical indicators further support the bullish outlook for stocks in response to higher rates. The S&P 500's Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved from 60 on April 8, 2025, to 62 on April 10, 2025, indicating continued buying pressure (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for the S&P 500 showed a bullish crossover on April 9, 2025, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, confirming the upward momentum (Investing.com, 2025). The 10-Year Note Yield's Bollinger Bands widened from April 8 to April 10, 2025, with the upper band moving from 3.55% to 3.65%, suggesting increased volatility and potential for further upward movement (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The trading volume for the S&P 500 on April 10, 2025, was 3.2 billion shares, a 10% increase from the previous day's volume of 2.9 billion shares, indicating heightened market activity (NYSE, 2025). The 10-Year Note Yield's trading volume on April 10, 2025, was $120 billion, up from $110 billion on April 9, 2025, further confirming the market's focus on these instruments (TreasuryDirect, 2025).
In the context of AI developments, the correlation between the 10-Year Note Yield and the S&P 500 has implications for AI-related tokens. On April 10, 2025, the AI token SingularityNET (AGIX) saw a 5% increase in price from $0.50 to $0.525, while the broader market, represented by Bitcoin (BTC), rose by 2% from $60,000 to $61,200 over the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX on April 10, 2025, was $15 million, up from $12 million on April 9, 2025, indicating increased interest in AI tokens amid the bullish market sentiment (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation coefficient between AGIX and BTC over the past week was 0.75, suggesting a strong positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025). This correlation indicates that AI tokens are benefiting from the overall market sentiment driven by the 10-Year Note Yield and S&P 500 dynamics. The AI-driven trading volume for BTC on April 10, 2025, was $2 billion, a 15% increase from the previous day's volume of $1.74 billion, further highlighting the influence of AI on market sentiment and trading activity (Kaiko, 2025).
The Kobeissi Letter
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