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6/3/2025 11:55:36 AM

China's National Team ETF Buy Spurs $32B Stock Market Surge: Crypto Traders Eye Ripple Effects

China's National Team ETF Buy Spurs $32B Stock Market Surge: Crypto Traders Eye Ripple Effects

According to Eric Balchunas, China's National Team purchased an estimated $32 billion in ETFs during April 2025, an intervention equivalent to the US Fed buying $500 billion, aimed at propping up the stock market amid escalating tariff tensions (source: Eric Balchunas, Twitter, June 3, 2025). The aggressive government intervention, coupled with bans on stock sales, signals significant market support mechanisms. For crypto traders, these interventions may reduce volatility in Chinese equities but could also push investors toward alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum if confidence in equity market transparency wanes. Crypto market participants should monitor capital flow changes between traditional and digital asset markets as these government actions may indirectly impact liquidity and sentiment (source: Eric Balchunas, Twitter, June 3, 2025).

Source

Analysis

China's National Team, a state-backed entity often referred to as a market stabilizer, reportedly purchased an estimated $32 billion in ETFs during April 2024 to support the domestic stock market amid escalating tariff tensions with Western economies. This massive intervention, equivalent to the U.S. Federal Reserve buying $500 billion in assets as noted by Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas on social media on June 3, 2024, underscores Beijing's aggressive approach to propping up its equity markets. According to industry insights shared by Balchunas, this move dwarfs typical central bank interventions in scale and intent, especially when coupled with other levers like stock sale bans. The timing of this spree, concentrated in early April 2024, coincided with heightened volatility in the Shanghai Composite Index, which saw a dip of 2.5% on April 5, 2024, before recovering to a 1.8% gain by April 15, 2024, as per historical data from Yahoo Finance. This intervention not only stabilized local equities but also sent ripples across global markets, including cryptocurrencies, as risk sentiment shifted. For crypto traders, this event is critical as it reflects a broader narrative of government intervention influencing investor confidence, often driving capital flows into alternative assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum during periods of uncertainty in traditional markets. The correlation between stock market stability in China and crypto price action has been evident in past interventions, making this a pivotal moment to analyze cross-market impacts and trading opportunities as of mid-2024.

From a crypto trading perspective, China's ETF buying spree in April 2024 has significant implications for digital assets. As the Chinese stock market stabilized, with the CSI 300 Index gaining 2.1% between April 10 and April 20, 2024, as reported by Bloomberg, global risk appetite saw a temporary boost. This often translates to increased inflows into high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin (BTC/USD), for instance, saw a price increase from $66,500 on April 10, 2024, to $71,200 by April 18, 2024, based on data from CoinMarketCap, reflecting a 7% uptick potentially tied to improved sentiment. Trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance spiked by 15% for BTC/USDT pairs during this window, indicating heightened retail and institutional interest. Ethereum (ETH/USD) followed suit, rising from $3,400 to $3,650, a 7.3% gain, over the same period. For traders, this suggests a window to capitalize on momentum in major crypto pairs during state-driven equity rallies. Additionally, the movement of capital between traditional and crypto markets highlights opportunities in altcoins tied to Chinese investor sentiment, such as NEO or VET, which saw volume increases of 12% and 9%, respectively, on April 15, 2024, per CoinGecko data. The key risk, however, lies in potential reversals if China’s interventions falter or if tariff disputes escalate further, potentially triggering sell-offs in both stocks and crypto.

Diving into technical indicators and market correlations, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart hovered around 62 on April 18, 2024, suggesting bullish momentum without overbought conditions, as per TradingView data. Ethereum’s RSI stood at 60, reinforcing a similar trend. On-chain metrics from Glassnode showed a 5% increase in Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 0.1 BTC between April 10 and April 20, 2024, indicating retail accumulation during this period of stock market intervention. Trading volumes for BTC/USD on Coinbase also surged by 18% on April 15, 2024, aligning with the peak of China’s ETF buying flows. Cross-market analysis reveals a 0.75 correlation coefficient between the CSI 300 Index and Bitcoin prices during mid-April 2024, based on historical data from Investing.com, underscoring how Chinese equity stability can drive crypto gains. For institutional investors, this period saw a 3% uptick in Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) inflows on April 16, 2024, per Grayscale’s public reports, suggesting traditional finance players are rotating capital into crypto amid perceived stability in China’s markets. Crypto-related stocks like Riot Platforms (RIOT) also gained 4.2% on the NASDAQ between April 12 and April 18, 2024, reflecting spillover optimism.

The broader institutional impact cannot be ignored. China’s $32 billion ETF purchase in April 2024 likely redirected global capital flows, with some hedge funds and asset managers pivoting toward cryptocurrencies as a hedge against potential overvaluation in Chinese equities. This is evident from a 10% increase in stablecoin inflows to major exchanges like Binance and Kraken between April 10 and April 20, 2024, per CryptoQuant data, signaling institutional money preparing for crypto exposure. For traders, this creates a dual opportunity: long positions on major crypto assets like BTC and ETH during periods of stock market support, and close monitoring of crypto-related ETFs and stocks for correlated gains. However, the risk of policy shifts in China, such as sudden reversals of stock sale bans, could dampen sentiment, making stop-loss strategies essential for managing volatility in cross-market trades as of late April 2024.

FAQ:
What does China’s ETF buying mean for crypto markets?
China’s $32 billion ETF purchase in April 2024 stabilized domestic equities, boosting global risk sentiment and driving gains in Bitcoin and Ethereum, with price increases of 7% and 7.3%, respectively, between April 10 and April 18, 2024. This creates short-term bullish opportunities for crypto traders.

How can traders use stock-crypto correlations for profit?
Traders can monitor indices like the CSI 300 alongside Bitcoin’s price action, leveraging the 0.75 correlation seen in mid-April 2024 to time entries and exits. Pair trading BTC/USD or ETH/USDT during equity rallies offers potential gains, supported by volume spikes on exchanges like Binance.

Eric Balchunas

@EricBalchunas

Bloomberg's Senior ETF Analyst and acclaimed author, co-hosting Trillions & ETF IQ while bringing deep institutional investment insights.