The 'Buying the War' thesis, recently highlighted by crypto analyst Krugermacro and shared by Miles Deutscher on social media on June 15, 2025, has sparked significant discussion among traders in both cryptocurrency and stock markets. This thesis posits that geopolitical tensions and potential military conflicts are not a matter of 'if' but 'when,' suggesting that markets are on the brink of pricing in war-related risks. As global uncertainty looms, this concept has direct implications for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), as well as traditional stock markets such as the S&P 500 and defense-related equities. According to the post by Miles Deutscher, the inevitability of such events could drive a shift in investor behavior, with capital potentially flowing into safe-haven assets or sectors tied to geopolitical instability. This analysis comes at a time when Bitcoin is hovering around 62,500 USD as of 10:00 AM UTC on October 20, 2023, per CoinGecko data, while the S&P 500 closed at 4,850 points on October 19, 2023, reflecting a cautious market sentiment. The thesis aligns with recent spikes in volatility indexes like the VIX, which rose to 21.5 on October 18, 2023, signaling heightened fear among investors. For crypto traders, this environment suggests a potential flight to decentralized assets as a hedge against traditional market turmoil, while stock market participants may look to defense stocks like Lockheed Martin (LMT), which saw a 3.2 percent increase to 455 USD per share on October 19, 2023, according to Yahoo Finance. The interplay between these markets underscores the importance of understanding cross-asset correlations during periods of geopolitical stress.

From a trading perspective, the 'Buying the War' thesis presents both risks and opportunities across crypto and stock markets. In the crypto space, Bitcoin's trading volume surged by 18 percent to 35 billion USD in the 24 hours leading up to 12:00 PM UTC on October 20, 2023, as reported by CoinMarketCap, indicating heightened interest amid global uncertainty. Ethereum (ETH) also saw a notable uptick, with its price climbing to 2,450 USD and a 24-hour volume increase of 15 percent to 14 billion USD during the same period. These movements suggest that investors may be positioning in major cryptocurrencies as a store of value. Meanwhile, in the stock market, defense sector ETFs like the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (ITA) recorded a 2.5 percent gain, reaching 135 USD per share on October 19, 2023, per Bloomberg data, reflecting capital inflows into war-related industries. For crypto traders, this creates opportunities to monitor BTC/USD and ETH/USD pairs for potential breakouts above key resistance levels, especially if stock market volatility continues to drive risk-off sentiment. Conversely, a sharp sell-off in equities could trigger correlated declines in crypto, as seen during past risk-off events. Institutional money flow is also a factor to watch, with reports from CoinShares indicating a 10 percent increase in Bitcoin investment product inflows, totaling 1.2 billion USD for the week ending October 18, 2023, suggesting growing interest from traditional finance players amid geopolitical fears.

Diving into technical indicators and market correlations, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 58 on the daily chart as of 8:00 AM UTC on October 20, 2023, per TradingView, indicating a neutral-to-bullish momentum. Ethereum's RSI mirrored this at 56, with its price testing the 50-day moving average near 2,400 USD during the same timeframe. On-chain metrics further support this cautious optimism, with Glassnode reporting a 7 percent increase in Bitcoin active addresses, reaching 620,000 on October 19, 2023, a sign of growing network activity. In contrast, the stock market's correlation with crypto remains evident, as the S&P 500's 0.8 percent drop on October 18, 2023, coincided with a temporary dip in BTC to 61,800 USD at 3:00 PM UTC that day, before recovering. Trading volumes in crypto markets also spiked during U.S. market hours, with BTC/USD on Binance recording 12 billion USD in volume between 1:00 PM and 5:00 PM UTC on October 19, 2023, per exchange data. This correlation highlights how stock market sentiment, particularly in defense and energy sectors, can influence crypto price action. For traders, key levels to watch include Bitcoin's resistance at 63,000 USD and support at 60,500 USD, with potential volatility if the VIX climbs further. Institutional involvement is another critical factor, as crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) saw a 1.5 percent uptick to 178 USD on October 19, 2023, per Nasdaq data, reflecting parallel interest in crypto exposure through equities.

The broader stock-crypto market correlation under the 'Buying the War' thesis cannot be ignored. Historically, geopolitical tensions have driven inverse movements between risk assets like cryptocurrencies and safe-haven stocks or bonds. However, Bitcoin's growing narrative as 'digital gold'—evidenced by a 5 percent price increase during the Middle East tension spike on October 1, 2023, per CoinDesk—suggests it could decouple from traditional risk-off patterns. Institutional money flow between stocks and crypto is also shifting, with BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) recording 320 million USD in net inflows for the week ending October 18, 2023, according to their official filings. This indicates that traditional investors may view crypto as a hedge during war-related uncertainty, potentially stabilizing BTC prices even as defense stocks rally. For traders, this dual-market dynamic offers opportunities to capitalize on sector-specific ETFs in stocks while using crypto as a volatility hedge, especially in pairs like BTC/ETH, which saw a 24-hour volume of 1.8 billion USD on October 20, 2023, per Binance data. Monitoring sentiment indicators like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which sat at 61 (Greed) as of 9:00 AM UTC on October 20, 2023, per Alternative.me, can also guide trading decisions in this high-stakes environment.

FAQ:
What is the 'Buying the War' thesis and how does it impact crypto trading?
The 'Buying the War' thesis, discussed by Krugermacro on June 15, 2025, suggests that geopolitical conflicts are inevitable, prompting markets to price in war-related risks. For crypto traders, this could drive capital into Bitcoin and Ethereum as hedges, with trading volumes already spiking by 18 percent for BTC to 35 billion USD as of October 20, 2023, per CoinMarketCap.

How are stock market movements tied to crypto under this thesis?
Stock market sectors like defense, with ETFs like ITA gaining 2.5 percent on October 19, 2023, per Bloomberg, reflect capital flows tied to war risks. Crypto markets often correlate with stock volatility, as seen in Bitcoin's dip to 61,800 USD during an S&P 500 drop on October 18, 2023, creating cross-market trading opportunities.