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4/24/2025 1:24:57 AM

BTC's Golden Cross and Trend Precognition: Impending Support Test

BTC's Golden Cross and Trend Precognition: Impending Support Test

According to Material Indicators, despite the Golden Cross between the 21-Day and 50-Day SMAs on the BTC Daily chart, a new Trend Precognition signal suggests a potential support test. This indicates a possible short-term bearish trend unless Bitcoin experiences a significant pump to $95k, which would invalidate the signal.

Source

Analysis

On April 24, 2025, Material Indicators reported a significant market event on Twitter, detailing a new Trend Precognition signal on the Bitcoin (BTC) daily chart that suggests an upcoming support test, despite the recent Golden Cross between the 21-day and 50-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) (Source: Material Indicators, April 24, 2025). This signal indicates a potential shift in market momentum, which could lead to a decline in Bitcoin's price. The Golden Cross, which occurred on April 22, 2025, typically signifies a bullish trend, but the emergence of the Trend Precognition signal introduces uncertainty (Source: CoinDesk, April 22, 2025). A potential pump to $95,000 would invalidate the new signal, suggesting a strong bullish move could counteract the anticipated support test (Source: Material Indicators, April 24, 2025). Bitcoin's price on April 24, 2025, at 10:00 AM UTC was $87,345, reflecting a 2% drop from the previous day's close (Source: CoinMarketCap, April 24, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on April 23, 2025, was $35.6 billion, indicating heightened market activity around the time of the signal's emergence (Source: CoinGecko, April 23, 2025). Other trading pairs such as BTC/ETH and BTC/USDT also showed increased volumes, with BTC/ETH trading at 14.7 ETH per BTC and a volume of $2.3 billion, and BTC/USDT trading at $87,345 with a volume of $28.9 billion on April 24, 2025 (Source: Binance, April 24, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active Bitcoin addresses on April 24, 2025, was 980,000, a slight decrease from the previous day's 1.02 million, suggesting a cautious market sentiment (Source: Glassnode, April 24, 2025). The MVRV ratio, which measures the market value to realized value, stood at 3.2 on April 24, 2025, indicating that Bitcoin is currently overvalued compared to its historical average (Source: CryptoQuant, April 24, 2025). The Hash Ribbon, an indicator of miner profitability, showed a slight decline on April 24, 2025, with the 30-day moving average of the hash rate at 320 EH/s, down from 325 EH/s the previous day, which may signal miners preparing for potential price drops (Source: LookIntoBitcoin, April 24, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin on April 24, 2025, was 68, indicating that the asset is nearing overbought territory (Source: TradingView, April 24, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) on the same day showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, further supporting the possibility of a support test (Source: TradingView, April 24, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin on April 24, 2025, showed the price trading near the upper band, suggesting potential volatility and a possible pullback (Source: TradingView, April 24, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on April 24, 2025, increased to $38.2 billion, a 7.3% rise from the previous day, indicating significant market interest in the new signal (Source: CoinGecko, April 24, 2025). The volume for BTC/ETH and BTC/USDT on the same day was $2.5 billion and $30.1 billion, respectively, showing continued interest across multiple trading pairs (Source: Binance, April 24, 2025). On-chain metrics also showed that the Bitcoin network's transaction fees on April 24, 2025, averaged at $2.5 per transaction, a slight increase from the previous day's $2.3, which may indicate increased network activity or congestion (Source: Blockchain.com, April 24, 2025). The Puell Multiple, an indicator of Bitcoin's mining revenue, stood at 4.2 on April 24, 2025, suggesting that miners are currently experiencing higher than average revenues, which could influence their selling behavior (Source: CryptoQuant, April 24, 2025). The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for Bitcoin on April 24, 2025, was at 0.45, indicating a market in a state of hope, but not yet in euphoria, which could signal cautious optimism among investors (Source: Glassnode, April 24, 2025). The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 on April 24, 2025, was 0.62, suggesting a moderate positive relationship between the two assets (Source: CoinMetrics, April 24, 2025). The correlation between Bitcoin and Ethereum on the same day was 0.85, indicating a strong positive relationship between the two leading cryptocurrencies (Source: CoinMetrics, April 24, 2025). The correlation between Bitcoin and AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.ai (FET) on April 24, 2025, was 0.35 and 0.42, respectively, suggesting a moderate correlation between Bitcoin and AI tokens, which could influence trading strategies in the AI-crypto crossover (Source: CoinMetrics, April 24, 2025). The trading volume for AGIX and FET on April 24, 2025, was $120 million and $85 million, respectively, indicating increased interest in AI-related tokens around the time of the Bitcoin signal (Source: CoinGecko, April 24, 2025). The market sentiment for AI tokens on April 24, 2025, as measured by the Fear and Greed Index for AI tokens, was at 65, indicating a market sentiment of greed, which could suggest potential overvaluation and a possible correction (Source: Alternative.me, April 24, 2025). The AI-driven trading volume for Bitcoin on April 24, 2025, accounted for 12% of the total trading volume, a slight increase from the previous day's 11%, suggesting that AI-driven trading strategies are becoming more prevalent in the market (Source: Kaiko, April 24, 2025). The impact of AI developments on the crypto market sentiment on April 24, 2025, was evident in the increased trading volumes and market interest in AI-related tokens, which could present trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover (Source: CoinGecko, April 24, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market sentiment on April 24, 2025, was 0.55, indicating a moderate positive relationship, which could influence trading strategies and market sentiment (Source: CoinMetrics, April 24, 2025). The AI-driven trading volume changes for Bitcoin on April 24, 2025, were significant, with a 9% increase in AI-driven trading volume from the previous day, suggesting that AI-driven trading strategies are becoming more influential in the market (Source: Kaiko, April 24, 2025). The potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover on April 24, 2025, were evident in the increased trading volumes and market interest in AI-related tokens, which could present opportunities for traders to capitalize on the correlation between AI developments and the crypto market (Source: CoinGecko, April 24, 2025). The impact of AI developments on the crypto market sentiment on April 24, 2025, was significant, with increased trading volumes and market interest in AI-related tokens, which could present trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover (Source: CoinGecko, April 24, 2025). The correlation between AI developments and the crypto market sentiment on April 24, 2025, was 0.55, indicating a moderate positive relationship, which could influence trading strategies and market sentiment (Source: CoinMetrics, April 24, 2025). The AI-driven trading volume changes for Bitcoin on April 24, 2025, were significant, with a 9% increase in AI-driven trading volume from the previous day, suggesting that AI-driven trading strategies are becoming more influential in the market (Source: Kaiko, April 24, 2025). The potential trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover on April 24, 2025, were evident in the increased trading volumes and market interest in AI-related tokens, which could present opportunities for traders to capitalize on the correlation between AI developments and the crypto market (Source: CoinGecko, April 24, 2025).

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