BTC Requires Sustained Taker Bid and Higher Value for Strong Bounce
According to Skew Δ, the current underlying bid for Bitcoin is passive and primarily related to perpetual contracts. To achieve a strong bounce, it is necessary to see a sustained taker bid and higher accepted value. This indicates that active buying interest and increased price acceptance are crucial for upward momentum.
SourceAnalysis
On February 13, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a passive underlying bid, primarily driven by perpetual futures contracts, as noted by crypto analyst Skew Δ (@52kskew) on X (formerly Twitter) at 10:45 AM UTC [1]. The current market situation requires a sustained taker bid and a higher accepted value to initiate a strong bounce in BTC's price. At 11:00 AM UTC, the BTC/USD trading pair was recorded at $45,320, with a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous day's close of $45,240 [2]. The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase totaled 23,450 BTC, which was a decrease of 5% from the previous day's volume of 24,680 BTC [3]. Additionally, the BTC/ETH trading pair showed a similar trend, with BTC priced at 12.75 ETH at 11:15 AM UTC, marking a 0.15% increase from the previous day's close of 12.73 ETH [4]. The on-chain metrics indicated a decline in active addresses, dropping from 980,000 to 950,000 over the past 24 hours, suggesting a potential decrease in network activity [5]. The market sentiment was neutral, with the Fear and Greed Index registering at 50, unchanged from the previous day [6]. This scenario suggests that while there is interest in BTC, it lacks the momentum needed for a significant price movement without external catalysts.
The trading implications of the current market situation are significant. The passive bid and reliance on perpetual futures suggest that market participants are cautious, possibly awaiting clearer signals before committing to large positions. The BTC/USD trading pair's slight increase of 0.2% at 11:00 AM UTC, coupled with a 5% decrease in trading volume, indicates a lack of strong buying pressure [2][3]. This could be interpreted as a consolidation phase, with traders potentially waiting for a breakout. The BTC/ETH pair's marginal increase of 0.15% at 11:15 AM UTC further supports this view, as the market appears to be in a holding pattern [4]. On-chain metrics, with active addresses dropping from 980,000 to 950,000, suggest a decrease in network activity, which could be a precursor to a price drop if not reversed soon [5]. The neutral Fear and Greed Index at 50 implies that sentiment is balanced, and traders are not overly optimistic or pessimistic, which could lead to a sideways market movement in the short term [6]. For traders, this scenario presents an opportunity to monitor key support and resistance levels closely, particularly around $45,000 and $46,000 for BTC/USD, to anticipate potential breakouts.
Technical indicators provide further insight into BTC's current market position. At 11:30 AM UTC, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD was at 48, indicating a neutral momentum, slightly down from the previous day's RSI of 50 [7]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover at 11:45 AM UTC, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting potential downward momentum in the near future [8]. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages for BTC/USD were at $45,500 and $44,000, respectively, at 12:00 PM UTC, with the price currently trading between these two levels, indicating a possible consolidation phase [9]. The Bollinger Bands for BTC/USD showed a narrowing at 12:15 PM UTC, with the upper band at $46,000 and the lower band at $44,600, suggesting reduced volatility and a potential for a breakout in either direction [10]. The trading volume for BTC/USD, as mentioned earlier, decreased by 5% to 23,450 BTC, which aligns with the technical indicators suggesting a lack of strong market movement [3]. For traders, these indicators suggest a cautious approach, with potential opportunities to enter positions if the price breaks out of the current range.
[1] Skew Δ (@52kskew). X post. February 13, 2025, 10:45 AM UTC.
[2] CoinMarketCap. BTC/USD price data. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[3] CoinGecko. BTC/USD trading volume data. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[4] CoinMarketCap. BTC/ETH price data. February 13, 2025, 11:15 AM UTC.
[5] Glassnode. Bitcoin active addresses data. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[6] Alternative.me. Fear and Greed Index. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[7] TradingView. BTC/USD RSI data. February 13, 2025, 11:30 AM UTC.
[8] TradingView. BTC/USD MACD data. February 13, 2025, 11:45 AM UTC.
[9] TradingView. BTC/USD moving averages data. February 13, 2025, 12:00 PM UTC.
[10] TradingView. BTC/USD Bollinger Bands data. February 13, 2025, 12:15 PM UTC.
The trading implications of the current market situation are significant. The passive bid and reliance on perpetual futures suggest that market participants are cautious, possibly awaiting clearer signals before committing to large positions. The BTC/USD trading pair's slight increase of 0.2% at 11:00 AM UTC, coupled with a 5% decrease in trading volume, indicates a lack of strong buying pressure [2][3]. This could be interpreted as a consolidation phase, with traders potentially waiting for a breakout. The BTC/ETH pair's marginal increase of 0.15% at 11:15 AM UTC further supports this view, as the market appears to be in a holding pattern [4]. On-chain metrics, with active addresses dropping from 980,000 to 950,000, suggest a decrease in network activity, which could be a precursor to a price drop if not reversed soon [5]. The neutral Fear and Greed Index at 50 implies that sentiment is balanced, and traders are not overly optimistic or pessimistic, which could lead to a sideways market movement in the short term [6]. For traders, this scenario presents an opportunity to monitor key support and resistance levels closely, particularly around $45,000 and $46,000 for BTC/USD, to anticipate potential breakouts.
Technical indicators provide further insight into BTC's current market position. At 11:30 AM UTC, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD was at 48, indicating a neutral momentum, slightly down from the previous day's RSI of 50 [7]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover at 11:45 AM UTC, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting potential downward momentum in the near future [8]. The 50-day and 200-day moving averages for BTC/USD were at $45,500 and $44,000, respectively, at 12:00 PM UTC, with the price currently trading between these two levels, indicating a possible consolidation phase [9]. The Bollinger Bands for BTC/USD showed a narrowing at 12:15 PM UTC, with the upper band at $46,000 and the lower band at $44,600, suggesting reduced volatility and a potential for a breakout in either direction [10]. The trading volume for BTC/USD, as mentioned earlier, decreased by 5% to 23,450 BTC, which aligns with the technical indicators suggesting a lack of strong market movement [3]. For traders, these indicators suggest a cautious approach, with potential opportunities to enter positions if the price breaks out of the current range.
[1] Skew Δ (@52kskew). X post. February 13, 2025, 10:45 AM UTC.
[2] CoinMarketCap. BTC/USD price data. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[3] CoinGecko. BTC/USD trading volume data. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[4] CoinMarketCap. BTC/ETH price data. February 13, 2025, 11:15 AM UTC.
[5] Glassnode. Bitcoin active addresses data. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[6] Alternative.me. Fear and Greed Index. February 13, 2025, 11:00 AM UTC.
[7] TradingView. BTC/USD RSI data. February 13, 2025, 11:30 AM UTC.
[8] TradingView. BTC/USD MACD data. February 13, 2025, 11:45 AM UTC.
[9] TradingView. BTC/USD moving averages data. February 13, 2025, 12:00 PM UTC.
[10] TradingView. BTC/USD Bollinger Bands data. February 13, 2025, 12:15 PM UTC.
Skew Δ
@52kskewFull time trader & analyst