Recent on-chain data reveals a concerning trend for Bitcoin traders as long-term holders (LTHs) are gradually offloading their positions, signaling potential profit-taking amid a lack of strong bullish catalysts. According to a detailed analysis shared by glassnode on June 6, 2025, Bitcoin's price could face a short-term correction if this selling pressure persists. The report highlights critical support zones derived from on-chain models, specifically the 0.95 SSD quantile at approximately $103,700 and the 0.85 quantile at $95,600. These levels are pivotal for traders to monitor as they represent thresholds where buying interest might emerge to counterbalance the selling by LTHs. As of the latest data on June 6, 2025, at 10:00 UTC, Bitcoin was trading at around $105,200 on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase, showing a slight 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours, with trading volume spiking by 15% to $28.3 billion across spot markets, as reported by CoinGecko. This uptick in volume suggests heightened activity, possibly driven by LTH sales, which could pressure the price further if no significant buying catalyst emerges. The current market sentiment appears cautious, with many traders eyeing macroeconomic factors, including stock market volatility, for clues on Bitcoin’s next move. With the S&P 500 index dropping 0.8% on June 5, 2025, at 14:00 UTC to 5,300 points as per Bloomberg data, risk-off sentiment in traditional markets could exacerbate Bitcoin’s downside risk, especially given the historical correlation between equities and crypto during uncertain times.

From a trading perspective, the selling by long-term holders presents both risks and opportunities. If Bitcoin breaches the $103,700 support level identified by glassnode on June 6, 2025, it could trigger stop-loss orders and accelerate a move toward the next support at $95,600, potentially offering a buying opportunity for swing traders. Conversely, scalpers might look to short BTC/USD or BTC/USDT pairs on platforms like Binance if the price fails to reclaim the $106,000 resistance level, which was tested unsuccessfully on June 5, 2025, at 18:00 UTC with a rejection candle on the 4-hour chart. Cross-market analysis also shows a notable correlation with stock market movements, as institutional investors often shift capital between equities and cryptocurrencies based on risk appetite. With the Nasdaq Composite declining 1.1% to 16,800 points on June 5, 2025, at 15:00 UTC according to Reuters, there’s a clear risk-off mood that could reduce inflows into Bitcoin. However, this also means that crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which dipped 2.3% to $1,580 on the same day as per Yahoo Finance, might face selling pressure, indirectly impacting Bitcoin sentiment. Traders should watch for potential bargains in spot markets if panic selling ensues, particularly in BTC/ETH pairs, which saw a 5% volume increase to $3.1 billion on June 6, 2025, at 09:00 UTC per CoinMarketCap data.

Technical indicators further underscore the importance of the support levels flagged by glassnode. As of June 6, 2025, at 11:00 UTC, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sits at 48, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but a potential for further downside if momentum shifts, as per TradingView data. The 50-day moving average, currently at $102,500, aligns closely with the 0.95 SSD quantile support of $103,700, reinforcing its significance. On-chain metrics also reveal a 7% increase in Bitcoin exchange inflows over the past 48 hours, reaching 21,400 BTC as of June 6, 2025, at 08:00 UTC, according to CryptoQuant, suggesting that LTHs are indeed moving coins to exchanges for potential sales. Meanwhile, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 remains strong at 0.72 over the past 30 days, based on data from Skew Analytics accessed on June 6, 2025. This indicates that further weakness in equities could drag Bitcoin lower, especially if institutional money flows out of risk assets. For traders, monitoring volume changes is crucial—spot trading volume for BTC/USD on Coinbase surged 18% to $9.2 billion on June 5, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, hinting at growing selling pressure. Institutional impact is also evident, as Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) saw net outflows of $45 million on June 5, 2025, per Farside Investors data, reflecting a cautious stance among larger players.

In summary, the interplay between stock market declines and Bitcoin’s on-chain dynamics creates a complex trading environment. Traders should remain vigilant, focusing on the $103,700 and $95,600 support levels while keeping an eye on equity indices and institutional flows. The current risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, coupled with LTH selling, suggests that short-term downside risks for Bitcoin outweigh upside potential unless a strong catalyst emerges. However, dips toward key support zones could present strategic entry points for long-term investors or swing traders looking to capitalize on oversold conditions.

FAQ:
What are the key Bitcoin support levels to watch right now?
The critical support levels for Bitcoin, as highlighted by glassnode on June 6, 2025, are $103,700 (0.95 SSD quantile) and $95,600 (0.85 SSD quantile). These levels could act as potential reversal zones if selling pressure from long-term holders continues.

How does the stock market impact Bitcoin’s price?
Bitcoin often correlates with equity indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. On June 5, 2025, declines of 0.8% in the S&P 500 and 1.1% in the Nasdaq reflected a risk-off mood, which could pressure Bitcoin’s price further due to reduced institutional inflows into crypto, as seen with GBTC outflows of $45 million on the same day.