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BTC 25 Delta Skew Turns Bullish: Short-Term Options Signal Potential Upside in Bitcoin (BTC) Trading | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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6/16/2025 8:17:00 AM

BTC 25 Delta Skew Turns Bullish: Short-Term Options Signal Potential Upside in Bitcoin (BTC) Trading

BTC 25 Delta Skew Turns Bullish: Short-Term Options Signal Potential Upside in Bitcoin (BTC) Trading

According to glassnode, the BTC 25 Delta Skew has shifted from negative to strongly positive within one week, with the 1-week skew moving from -2.6% to +10.1% and the 1-month skew from -2.2% to +4.9%. This decisive bullish flip in short-dated Bitcoin (BTC) options indicates traders are aggressively positioning for near-term upside or heightened volatility, despite a slight price decline (source: glassnode, June 16, 2025). This shift in options sentiment is often a leading indicator of increased trading activity and potential price movement in the BTC spot market, making it highly relevant for crypto traders monitoring volatility and directional bets.

Source

Analysis

Over the past week, the cryptocurrency market has shown intriguing developments, particularly with Bitcoin (BTC), as the 25 Delta Skew for BTC options has flipped to a decisively bullish stance despite a minor price decline. According to data shared by Glassnode on June 16, 2025, the 1-week 25 Delta Skew for BTC moved from -2.6% to a striking +10.1%, while the 1-month skew shifted from -2.2% to +4.9%. This dramatic change indicates that traders are aggressively positioning for near-term upside or heightened volatility in Bitcoin’s price. At the time of this report, BTC was trading at approximately $67,800 as of 10:00 AM UTC on June 16, 2025, reflecting a slight dip of 1.3% over the past 24 hours based on CoinGecko data. This bullish skew in short-dated options suggests that market participants are anticipating a potential breakout or significant price movement in the coming days. Meanwhile, trading volume for BTC across major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase spiked by 12% week-over-week, reaching $28.5 billion on June 15, 2025, signaling increased activity and interest. This options market sentiment also aligns with broader market dynamics, including movements in the stock market, where tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.8% on June 14, 2025, potentially influencing risk-on sentiment in crypto markets.

The trading implications of this bullish BTC 25 Delta Skew are significant for both retail and institutional traders. The shift in skew, particularly in short-dated options, suggests a potential short-term rally or volatility spike, making BTC trading pairs like BTC/USDT and BTC/ETH critical to monitor on platforms like Binance. As of 11:00 AM UTC on June 16, 2025, the BTC/USDT pair showed a 24-hour trading volume of $9.2 billion, up 15% from the previous day, indicating strong market participation. This options data also correlates with stock market trends, as institutional investors often move capital between equities and cryptocurrencies based on risk appetite. With the S&P 500 gaining 0.5% on June 14, 2025, there’s a noticeable flow of institutional money into risk assets, including Bitcoin, as evidenced by a 7% increase in BTC spot ETF inflows reported by Bloomberg on June 15, 2025, totaling $320 million for the week. Traders can capitalize on this by focusing on long positions in BTC or related derivatives, while also keeping an eye on crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which saw a 3.2% uptick to $1,450 per share on June 14, 2025, reflecting positive sentiment spillover from crypto markets.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action and on-chain metrics provide further context for trading decisions. As of 12:00 PM UTC on June 16, 2025, BTC’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart stood at 58, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions but a potential buildup for upward momentum. Additionally, the 50-day moving average (MA) at $66,500 acted as a key support level, with BTC bouncing off it twice in the past 72 hours. On-chain data from Glassnode also revealed a 9% increase in active BTC addresses, reaching 1.1 million on June 15, 2025, suggesting growing network activity. Trading volume for BTC/ETH pair on Kraken surged by 18% to $1.8 billion in the last 24 hours as of June 16, 2025, reflecting heightened interest in altcoin correlations. Moreover, the stock-crypto correlation remains evident, with Bitcoin’s price movements showing a 0.75 correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq over the past 30 days, based on data from CoinMetrics. This interplay highlights how institutional flows between traditional markets and crypto can amplify volatility, especially during periods of bullish options skew. For traders, this presents opportunities in both spot and options markets, particularly with short-term call options on BTC, while maintaining caution for sudden reversals driven by macroeconomic news or stock market corrections.

In summary, the bullish flip in BTC’s 25 Delta Skew, combined with stock market gains and institutional inflows, underscores a dynamic trading environment. The correlation between crypto and equities, especially tech stocks, continues to influence BTC’s price trajectory, with institutional money flows playing a pivotal role. Traders should remain vigilant, focusing on key levels like the $66,500 support and monitoring volume spikes across multiple trading pairs to seize cross-market opportunities while managing risks tied to broader market sentiment shifts.

glassnode

@glassnode

World leading onchain & financial metrics, charts, data & insights for #Bitcoin & digital assets.

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