According to @KobeissiLetter, the current decline in stocks is mirrored by falling treasury yields, a trend that could impact cryptocurrency markets. Without a surge in treasury yields, President Trump may not intervene to support the markets, potentially leading to increased volatility in digital assets. This situation calls for traders to closely monitor bond market developments as they could signal critical shifts in crypto price movements.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US interest expense on national debt has reached a record $1.2 trillion over the past year. This increase necessitates extensive issuance of US Treasuries, leading to a surplus in the bond market and a subsequent drop in bond prices. This scenario is critical for traders, as falling bond prices can impact yields and influence broader financial markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the persistent inflation and US deficit spending have led to the US interest expense on national debt reaching a record $1.2 trillion over the last 12 months. This situation necessitates mass issuances of US Treasuries, which in turn causes bond prices to fall as the market becomes saturated with bonds. Traders should monitor bond market movements as they can impact broader financial markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, gold prices have surged by 114% since March 2020, significantly outperforming the bond market, as indicated by the popular bond-tracking ETF, $TLT, which has declined by 45%. This remarkable shift in investment sentiment towards gold is attributed to several factors, including economic instability and inflation concerns, which have increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Traders are advised to consider the continued volatility in the bond market and the potential for further gains in gold as part of their diversified investment strategies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the 10-Year Treasury Note Yield has risen above 4.50% at the market open, signaling significant control by the bond market. This yield increase could lead to shifts in cryptocurrency investments as traders react to changing interest rates. Historically, rising yields have pressured riskier assets like cryptocurrencies, as investors might seek safer returns in bonds. Monitoring these interest rate movements is crucial for crypto traders to adjust their strategies accordingly.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the imminent rise of the 10-year Treasury Note Yield to 5% could significantly impact global markets, including cryptocurrencies. The unsustainable tension between the U.S. administration, China, and the bond market suggests traders should prepare for volatility. The resolution of these pressures could lead to shifts in investment strategies, affecting cryptocurrency trading dynamics as investors seek alternative assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the rapid rise in 10-year Note Yield approaching 5% is creating a critical situation where either President Trump, China, or the bond market must adjust their stance. This unsustainable yield level impacts market stability and trading strategies, as a yield at this level can lead to significant bond sell-offs and shifts in global financial strategies. Traders should closely monitor these entities' responses, as they will directly affect market dynamics and investment decisions.

According to André Dragosch, PhD, a new paper highlights the dysfunction in the US Treasury market, emphasizing the necessity for the Federal Reserve to provide liquidity during such events, termed as the 'Trump-Fed Put'. This insight could influence trading strategies by anticipating Fed intervention in liquidity crises, thus impacting bond market pricing and volatility expectations.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump's economic priorities shifted quickly following a significant movement in the bond market. Despite previous assertions that no tariff delays would occur, the administration implemented a 90-day pause on tariffs just 12 hours after the bond market showed signs of distress, which coincided with a $12 trillion stock market valuation erosion.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump has shifted his focus from the stock market to the bond market, emphasizing the importance of interest rates. This indicates a pivotal move for traders, as bond market trends and interest rate fluctuations can significantly impact investment strategies. Traders should adjust their focus accordingly, as changes in interest rates are critical for both bond yields and economic forecasts.

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump's decision to implement a 90-day tariff pause came shortly after significant disruptions in the bond market, highlighting the influence of economic indicators on policy decisions. This shift occurred despite previous assertions of no tariff delays, indicating a strategic response to market pressures. Traders should closely monitor bond market trends as they appear to be a critical factor influencing tariff policies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump prioritized economic stability over tariffs by reversing his stance on tariff delays after the bond market showed signs of distress. This policy shift occurred just 12 hours after the bond market broke, indicating the administration's sensitivity to financial market signals. Traders are advised to closely monitor bond market movements for potential policy changes.

According to @KobeissiLetter, President Trump's economic priority shifted to implementing a 90-day tariff pause after the bond market experienced significant disruptions. This decision followed weeks of assurances from Trump that there would be no tariff delay, despite a $12 trillion erosion in stock market value. The bond market's reaction appears to have been a critical factor in the policy shift, emphasizing the need for traders to closely monitor bonds for future economic policy cues.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, President Trump's decision to implement a 90-day tariff pause followed a significant disruption in the bond market, despite his earlier stance of no delays, as stocks lost over $12 trillion. This shift indicates the critical impact of bond market conditions on trade policy decisions.

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), the short-term 2-year Treasury bond yields are nearing a breakdown, indicating a potential top in the bond market. This observation suggests that traders should be cautious of potential shifts in the bond market dynamics, as yield breakdowns can precede price adjustments. The analysis implies that investors might consider re-evaluating their bond positions to mitigate risks associated with falling yields.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, despite inflation forecasts rising above 5% due to tariffs, interest rates are declining significantly, indicating the bond market's anticipation of a recession with over a 50% probability. Additionally, oil prices have plummeted by as much as 8% in response to this news.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the market is signaling a potential recession as the 10-year note yield has decreased by 65 basis points over the last 11 weeks. This decline represents a significant reversal, despite the fact that 1 and 3-month annualized inflation metrics have surpassed 4%. This unusual scenario of falling rates paired with rising inflation is noteworthy for traders and investors (source: @KobeissiLetter).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 2-year breakeven inflation rate has surged to 3.27%, marking the highest level since the March 2023 Banking Crisis. This indicates that the market anticipates inflation to exceed 3.0% over the next two years, reflecting heightened inflation expectations and potential volatility in the bond market. Investors may need to adjust their strategies accordingly.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, in the four months following the start of rate cuts, the 10-year note yield increased by 115 basis points, marking the first such occurrence in over 40 years spanning 11 cutting cycles. This unusual rise is attributed to the US deficit, which has led to a significant increase in bond supply, affecting the bond market dynamics.

According to Eric Balchunas, Vanguard has filed to launch an active multi-sector bond ETF, suggesting a significant expansion in their ETF offerings. This move could impact the bond market by providing investors with a new tool for diversifying their portfolios across various bond sectors. Traders should monitor potential shifts in market dynamics as this ETF could attract substantial investment flows given Vanguard's reputation. [Source: Eric Balchunas]