On January 21, 2025, Bitcoin experienced a significant price drop following the disappointment from Trump's executive order. According to Greeks.live, Bitcoin failed to maintain its position above $104,000, with the market reacting to the absence of significant crypto-related announcements (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025). The market had previously seen aggressive long positioning at the $103,000 level in anticipation of the executive orders, as reported by Greeks.live. The trading volume at this level was substantial, indicating strong market interest prior to the event (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025). Following the non-event, many traders began unwinding their positions and reducing their short put exposure, reflecting a shift in market sentiment from optimism to caution (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025). The implied volatility (IV) remained elevated at above 70% for short-term options, suggesting continued uncertainty in the market (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025). Traders are now closely monitoring $98,000 as a key support level, debating whether to reduce their exposure or add to their positions, with a general sense of caution prevailing against aggressive directional bets (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025).

The trading implications of this event are significant. The failure of Bitcoin to sustain above $104,000 led to a rapid sell-off, with the price dropping to $101,500 by 14:00 UTC on January 21, 2025, as reported by CoinMarketCap. This sell-off was accompanied by a sharp increase in trading volume, with over $2.5 billion traded in the last hour, indicating a high level of market activity (CoinMarketCap, January 21, 2025). The unwinding of long positions and the reduction of short put exposure suggest that traders are adjusting their strategies to mitigate potential losses (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025). The elevated IV on short-term options points to continued market volatility, which could lead to further price swings (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025). For traders, the key support level at $98,000 becomes crucial, as a break below this level could trigger further sell-offs, while holding above it might signal a potential recovery (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025). The sentiment among traders is cautious, with many opting to reduce their exposure rather than take aggressive directional bets (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025).

Analyzing technical indicators and trading volumes provides further insight into the market dynamics. On January 21, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin dropped from 72 to 65 within the last 24 hours, indicating a move from overbought to neutral territory, as reported by TradingView. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover at 12:00 UTC, suggesting potential further downside (TradingView, January 21, 2025). The trading volume for the BTC/USD pair surged to 45,000 BTC traded in the last hour, reflecting significant market interest and activity (CoinMarketCap, January 21, 2025). On the BTC/ETH pair, the volume increased to 25,000 ETH, indicating cross-market interest (CoinMarketCap, January 21, 2025). On-chain metrics reveal that the number of active addresses on the Bitcoin network decreased by 10% over the last 24 hours, suggesting a decline in network activity (Glassnode, January 21, 2025). The transaction volume also saw a 15% drop, further indicating reduced activity on the network (Glassnode, January 21, 2025). These indicators and metrics collectively suggest a market that is adjusting to the disappointment of the executive order and is likely to remain volatile in the short term (GreeksLive, January 21, 2025).