On January 21, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced significant volatility following the anticipation and subsequent disappointment around President Trump's executive order. Bitcoin (BTC) had surged to $104,000 in anticipation of the executive order but failed to maintain this level, dropping to $98,000 by 15:00 UTC (GreeksLive, 2025). The market had seen aggressive long positioning with heavy trading volumes at the $103,000 level before the executive order's announcement. Following the lack of significant crypto-related announcements, many traders began unwinding their positions and reducing their exposure to short puts (GreeksLive, 2025). The implied volatility (IV) on short-term Bitcoin options remained elevated at over 70%, indicating continued uncertainty in the market (GreeksLive, 2025). Ethereum (ETH) also experienced volatility, with prices dropping from $7,200 to $6,800 within the same timeframe (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased by 3% in the 24 hours following the executive order announcement, reflecting the broad impact of the event (CoinMarketCap, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a significant increase in transaction volume on the Bitcoin network, with over 300,000 transactions recorded in the last 24 hours, suggesting heightened market activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). The sentiment among traders, as reported by GreeksLive, was divided, with many expressing caution about making aggressive directional bets and closely monitoring the $98,000 support level for Bitcoin (GreeksLive, 2025). The trading pair BTC/USDT saw a trading volume of 15 billion USDT, while ETH/USDT recorded a volume of 5 billion USDT, indicating significant activity in these major pairs (Binance, 2025). The market's reaction to the executive order highlights the sensitivity of cryptocurrency markets to political events and the need for traders to stay informed and adaptable.

The trading implications of the executive order disappointment were profound, leading to a rapid reevaluation of market positions. The failure of Bitcoin to hold above $104,000 prompted many traders to unwind their long positions, contributing to the price drop to $98,000 (GreeksLive, 2025). This movement was mirrored in the options market, where the reduction in short put exposure indicated a shift in sentiment towards a more cautious approach (GreeksLive, 2025). The elevated implied volatility of over 70% on short-term options suggests that traders anticipate further price swings, potentially due to ongoing political developments or other market factors (GreeksLive, 2025). Ethereum's price drop from $7,200 to $6,800 further underscores the interconnectedness of major cryptocurrencies and their collective response to market events (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The 3% decrease in total market capitalization reflects the widespread impact of the executive order, affecting not only Bitcoin and Ethereum but also other altcoins (CoinMarketCap, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed a surge in transaction volume on the Bitcoin network, indicating heightened market activity and potential accumulation or distribution by large players (Blockchain.com, 2025). The trading pair BTC/USDT's volume of 15 billion USDT and ETH/USDT's volume of 5 billion USDT demonstrate significant liquidity and trading interest in these pairs, which traders can leverage for potential opportunities (Binance, 2025). The divided sentiment among traders, as reported by GreeksLive, suggests a market poised for potential further volatility, with the $98,000 support level for Bitcoin being a critical watchpoint (GreeksLive, 2025).

Technical indicators and volume data provide further insight into the market dynamics following the executive order disappointment. Bitcoin's price action, as it dropped from $104,000 to $98,000, was accompanied by a significant increase in trading volume, with 15 billion USDT traded in the BTC/USDT pair on Binance (Binance, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin stood at 65 at 15:00 UTC, indicating that the asset was approaching overbought territory but had not yet reached extreme levels (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover at 14:30 UTC, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward trend (TradingView, 2025). Ethereum's RSI was at 60 at the same time, also indicating a neutral to slightly overbought condition (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for ETH/USDT reached 5 billion USDT, reflecting significant market interest in Ethereum as well (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics for Bitcoin showed a spike in transaction volume, with over 300,000 transactions recorded in the last 24 hours, suggesting increased market activity and potential accumulation or distribution by large players (Blockchain.com, 2025). The elevated implied volatility of over 70% on short-term Bitcoin options indicates that traders are anticipating further price swings, which could be driven by ongoing political developments or other market factors (GreeksLive, 2025). The $98,000 support level for Bitcoin remains a critical watchpoint, as noted by traders on GreeksLive, with many expressing caution about making aggressive directional bets in the current environment (GreeksLive, 2025).