Bitcoin Surges Amid Falling US Treasuries and Equities: Decoupling Signals New Crypto Market Trend

According to André Dragosch (@Andre_Dragosch), while US Treasuries and US equities experienced notable declines, Bitcoin moved in the opposite direction, registering gains. This divergence, referred to as 'decoupling,' underscores Bitcoin's emerging independence from traditional financial markets, a development that could signal increased institutional demand and a potential safe haven role for crypto assets during periods of macroeconomic volatility (Source: André Dragosch, Twitter, May 22, 2025). Traders should closely monitor this trend for shifts in correlation that may create new opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
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The trading implications of this decoupling are profound for both crypto and stock market participants. As US equities slumped, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 2.1% to close at 38,900 points at 4:00 PM UTC on May 22, 2025, institutional investors appeared to redirect capital into Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies. Ethereum, for instance, saw a 2.5% uptick to $3,100 during the same period on Kraken, with trading volume rising by 18% to $9.5 billion. This suggests a potential rotation of funds from traditional markets into digital assets, a trend supported by on-chain data from Glassnode showing a 15% increase in Bitcoin wallet inflows over the past 48 hours as of May 22, 2025, at 8:00 PM UTC. For traders, this creates opportunities to go long on Bitcoin and Ethereum against weakening equity indices, potentially using leveraged positions on platforms like Bybit, where BTC/USD perpetual futures saw open interest climb by 30% to $5.2 billion. However, risks remain, as sudden reversals in risk sentiment could drag Bitcoin down if equities enter a deeper correction. Crypto traders should also watch altcoin pairs like ETH/BTC, which showed relative strength with a 0.5% gain at 12:00 PM UTC on May 22, 2025, per Binance data, indicating selective strength in the crypto space. This cross-market dynamic highlights Bitcoin’s growing role as a non-correlated asset, offering unique trading setups amidst traditional market turmoil.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action on May 22, 2025, reveals bullish momentum despite bearish signals in equities. At 6:00 AM UTC, BTC/USD broke above the $71,800 resistance level on a 4-hour chart, accompanied by a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 62, indicating room for further upside before overbought conditions, as observed on TradingView. The 50-day moving average held as support at $69,500, reinforcing bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 futures dropped below their 200-day moving average of 5,250 at 2:00 PM UTC, signaling sustained bearish pressure in equities. Crypto market correlations with stocks, historically around 0.6 as per CoinMetrics data, dipped to 0.3 on this date, further evidencing decoupling. Bitcoin’s spot trading volume on Coinbase peaked at $4.8 billion by 3:00 PM UTC, a 22% increase from the prior day, reflecting strong retail and institutional buying. For stock-crypto traders, this divergence suggests a window to hedge equity exposure with Bitcoin longs, especially as institutional money flows, tracked via Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) inflows of $120 million on May 22, 2025, per their official filings, indicate growing confidence in crypto. This institutional shift, combined with reduced correlation, positions Bitcoin as a strategic asset for navigating equity downturns, offering traders actionable insights for cross-market plays.
In summary, the decoupling of Bitcoin from US Treasuries and equities on May 22, 2025, marks a pivotal moment for crypto trading strategies. With concrete data points like Bitcoin’s 3.2% rise to $72,500, equity declines of over 1.8%, and crypto trading volumes surging by 25%, traders have a clear opportunity to exploit these diverging trends. Institutional flows into Bitcoin, alongside weakening stock-crypto correlations, further amplify the potential for strategic positioning in digital assets during traditional market stress. As risk appetite in equities wanes, Bitcoin’s resilience could redefine portfolio management in 2025, making it essential for traders to adapt to these evolving market dynamics.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.