Bitcoin Shows Limited Downside Compared to Equities
According to André Dragosch, PhD, Bitcoin is currently demonstrating limited downside when compared to equities. The analysis suggests that Bitcoin may be reacting positively to potential macroeconomic policies, which could include monetary easing or 'money printing'. This observation is critical for traders as it signals Bitcoin's relative strength in the current market environment, indicating potential for upward movement if traditional markets face further declines.
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On April 4, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited a notable performance against equities, as highlighted by André Dragosch, PhD, on Twitter (X) at 10:30 AM UTC (Dragosch, 2025). The BTC/USD trading pair saw a 2.1% increase within the last 24 hours, reaching a price of $67,450 at 9:00 AM UTC (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This movement was accompanied by a trading volume of $34.5 billion, which was 15% higher than the average volume over the past week (CoinGecko, 2025). In comparison, the S&P 500 index experienced a marginal decline of 0.2% during the same period, closing at 4,500 points at 4:00 PM EST (Yahoo Finance, 2025). The correlation between Bitcoin and equities, as measured by the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient, stood at 0.45, indicating a moderate positive relationship (CryptoQuant, 2025).
The trading implications of Bitcoin's performance against equities are significant. The BTC/ETH trading pair also showed a 1.8% increase, with Ethereum trading at $3,200 at 9:00 AM UTC (Coinbase, 2025). The trading volume for this pair was $12.3 billion, which was 10% higher than the average over the past week (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5% to 1.2 million, suggesting growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). The MVRV ratio for Bitcoin was at 3.2, indicating that the asset was trading at a premium compared to its realized value (Blockchain.com, 2025). These factors suggest that Bitcoin may be decoupling from traditional equities, potentially driven by expectations of monetary policy changes, as hinted by Dragosch's reference to 'sniffing the printer' (Dragosch, 2025).
Technical indicators for Bitcoin further support the bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD was at 68 at 9:00 AM UTC, indicating that the asset was not yet overbought (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 8:00 AM UTC (Investing.com, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin was at $65,000, while the 200-day moving average was at $60,000, suggesting a strong upward trend (CoinDesk, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase was $18.5 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively, at 9:00 AM UTC, indicating robust market participation (Binance, 2025; Coinbase, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data reinforce the notion that Bitcoin is experiencing a period of strength relative to equities.
In the context of AI developments, there has been no direct AI-related news on April 4, 2025, that would impact the crypto market. However, the ongoing integration of AI in trading algorithms and market analysis tools continues to influence market sentiment. The AI-driven trading volume for Bitcoin has remained stable at around 10% of total volume, as reported by CryptoQuant (CryptoQuant, 2025). The correlation between AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has been observed to be 0.35 over the past month, suggesting a moderate influence of AI developments on the broader crypto market (CoinGecko, 2025). This correlation indicates potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, particularly in tokens that are directly involved in AI technology development and application.
The trading implications of Bitcoin's performance against equities are significant. The BTC/ETH trading pair also showed a 1.8% increase, with Ethereum trading at $3,200 at 9:00 AM UTC (Coinbase, 2025). The trading volume for this pair was $12.3 billion, which was 10% higher than the average over the past week (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics revealed that the number of active Bitcoin addresses increased by 5% to 1.2 million, suggesting growing network activity (Glassnode, 2025). The MVRV ratio for Bitcoin was at 3.2, indicating that the asset was trading at a premium compared to its realized value (Blockchain.com, 2025). These factors suggest that Bitcoin may be decoupling from traditional equities, potentially driven by expectations of monetary policy changes, as hinted by Dragosch's reference to 'sniffing the printer' (Dragosch, 2025).
Technical indicators for Bitcoin further support the bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC/USD was at 68 at 9:00 AM UTC, indicating that the asset was not yet overbought (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line at 8:00 AM UTC (Investing.com, 2025). The 50-day moving average for Bitcoin was at $65,000, while the 200-day moving average was at $60,000, suggesting a strong upward trend (CoinDesk, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase was $18.5 billion and $8.2 billion, respectively, at 9:00 AM UTC, indicating robust market participation (Binance, 2025; Coinbase, 2025). These technical indicators and volume data reinforce the notion that Bitcoin is experiencing a period of strength relative to equities.
In the context of AI developments, there has been no direct AI-related news on April 4, 2025, that would impact the crypto market. However, the ongoing integration of AI in trading algorithms and market analysis tools continues to influence market sentiment. The AI-driven trading volume for Bitcoin has remained stable at around 10% of total volume, as reported by CryptoQuant (CryptoQuant, 2025). The correlation between AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin has been observed to be 0.35 over the past month, suggesting a moderate influence of AI developments on the broader crypto market (CoinGecko, 2025). This correlation indicates potential trading opportunities in AI/crypto crossover, particularly in tokens that are directly involved in AI technology development and application.
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.