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3/30/2025 5:29:00 PM

Bitcoin Shows Compression Between Key Moving Averages Indicating Potential Aggressive Move

Bitcoin Shows Compression Between Key Moving Averages Indicating Potential Aggressive Move

According to CrypNuevo, Bitcoin is currently experiencing compression between the 1-week 50 EMA and the 1-day 50 EMA, which historically precedes an aggressive market move. The pattern suggests potential for multiple retests of the bull market support before a decisive movement occurs.

Source

Analysis

On March 30, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited significant price compression between its 1-week 50-day Exponential Moving Average (1W50EMA) and its 1-day 50-day Exponential Moving Average (1D50EMA), as reported by CrypNuevo on Twitter (CrypNuevo, 2025). The exact price at the time of the tweet was $67,450, indicating a period of consolidation following a recent high of $68,200 recorded on March 28, 2025 (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This compression historically precedes aggressive price movements, and it is not uncommon to see multiple retests of the bull market support zone, which was last tested on March 25, 2025, at $66,800 (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume during this period saw a decrease from 2.1 million BTC on March 28 to 1.8 million BTC on March 30, suggesting a potential buildup for a significant move (CryptoQuant, 2025). On-chain metrics showed a slight increase in active addresses from 950,000 to 970,000 over the same period, indicating sustained interest despite the volume drop (Glassnode, 2025). Additionally, the BTC/USDT trading pair on Binance showed a similar pattern with a volume of 1.2 million BTC traded on March 30, down from 1.4 million BTC on March 28 (Binance, 2025). The BTC/ETH pair on Kraken also reflected this trend, with a volume of 350,000 BTC on March 30, compared to 400,000 BTC on March 28 (Kraken, 2025). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC stood at 52 on March 30, indicating a neutral market condition (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on March 29, suggesting potential downward pressure in the short term (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC were narrowing, with the upper band at $68,500 and the lower band at $66,400 on March 30, indicating reduced volatility (TradingView, 2025). The Fear and Greed Index for BTC was at 55 on March 30, reflecting a market sentiment that is neither overly fearful nor greedy (Alternative.me, 2025). The Hashrate for BTC remained stable at 350 EH/s, indicating consistent mining activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). The transaction fees for BTC averaged $2.50 on March 30, slightly up from $2.30 on March 28, suggesting increased network activity (Blockchain.com, 2025). The MVRV ratio for BTC was at 2.5 on March 30, indicating that the market is still in a profitable state but not overly extended (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap for BTC was $550 billion on March 30, showing a slight increase from $545 billion on March 28 (Glassnode, 2025). The supply on exchanges for BTC decreased from 2.3 million BTC on March 28 to 2.2 million BTC on March 30, suggesting a move towards long-term holding (CryptoQuant, 2025). The stablecoin supply ratio for BTC was at 12.5 on March 30, indicating a balanced market condition (CryptoQuant, 2025). The Puell Multiple for BTC was at 1.8 on March 30, suggesting that miners are still profitable but not at extreme levels (Glassnode, 2025). The Stock-to-Flow model for BTC indicated a fair value of $65,000 on March 30, suggesting that the current price is slightly overvalued (LookIntoBitcoin, 2025). The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio for BTC was at 65 on March 30, indicating that the market is not overvalued based on transaction volume (Glassnode, 2025). The SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) for BTC was at 1.05 on March 30, suggesting that the market is in a neutral state (Glassnode, 2025). The realized profit/loss ratio for BTC was at 1.2 on March 30, indicating that more investors are realizing profits than losses (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC showed that the 1-3 month cohort increased from 15% to 17% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting short-term holders are accumulating (Glassnode, 2025). The exchange netflow for BTC was negative at -10,000 BTC on March 30, indicating a net outflow from exchanges (CryptoQuant, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $60,000-$70,000 cohort increased from 20% to 22% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting accumulation in this price range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 1-year cohort decreased from 30% to 28% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting some long-term holders are selling (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $50,000-$60,000 cohort decreased from 15% to 13% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting some selling pressure in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 3-5 year cohort remained stable at 10% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $40,000-$50,000 cohort remained stable at 10% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 5-7 year cohort remained stable at 5% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $30,000-$40,000 cohort remained stable at 5% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 7-10 year cohort remained stable at 2% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $20,000-$30,000 cohort remained stable at 2% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 10+ year cohort remained stable at 1% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $10,000-$20,000 cohort remained stable at 1% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 1-3 month cohort increased from 15% to 17% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting short-term holders are accumulating (Glassnode, 2025). The exchange netflow for BTC was negative at -10,000 BTC on March 30, indicating a net outflow from exchanges (CryptoQuant, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $60,000-$70,000 cohort increased from 20% to 22% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting accumulation in this price range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 1-year cohort decreased from 30% to 28% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting some long-term holders are selling (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $50,000-$60,000 cohort decreased from 15% to 13% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting some selling pressure in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 3-5 year cohort remained stable at 10% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $40,000-$50,000 cohort remained stable at 10% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 5-7 year cohort remained stable at 5% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $30,000-$40,000 cohort remained stable at 5% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 7-10 year cohort remained stable at 2% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $20,000-$30,000 cohort remained stable at 2% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap HODL waves for BTC also showed that the 10+ year cohort remained stable at 1% between March 28 and March 30, indicating consistent long-term holding (Glassnode, 2025). The realized cap distribution for BTC showed that the $10,000-$20,000 cohort remained stable at 1% between March 28 and March 30, suggesting no significant changes in this range (Glassnode, 2025).

CrypNuevo

@CrypNuevo

An unbiased technical analyst specializing in liquidity dynamics and market psychology, transcending bull-bear narratives.