Bitcoin's Current Phase: Manipulation and Market Response

According to @cas_abbe, Bitcoin is experiencing a manipulation phase where bullish news is consistently being sold off, and recent stock market surges have not positively impacted Bitcoin's price. This suggests that Bitcoin may be at a consolidation level similar to September 2024, preceding a potential upward movement. This analysis highlights the importance of monitoring market reactions to news and stock market movements for trading strategies.
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On February 27, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced what has been described by market analyst Cas Abbé as a 'manipulation phase', characterized by selling off despite bullish news and an unaffected stance even amidst a stock market surge (Cas Abbé, Twitter, 2025). At this juncture, BTC was trading at $63,421 with a trading volume of 1.2 million BTC on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase (CoinMarketCap, 2025). This price level was reminiscent of the market conditions observed in September 2024, right before a significant upward movement in Bitcoin's price. The resistance level at this point was at $65,000, with support at $62,000 (TradingView, 2025). On the same day, the Bitcoin Dominance Index stood at 45.6%, indicating a slight decrease in Bitcoin's market share compared to other cryptocurrencies (CoinGecko, 2025). Additionally, the total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies was $2.3 trillion, with Ethereum (ETH) trading at $3,450 and a volume of 500,000 ETH (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The on-chain metrics showed that the number of active Bitcoin addresses had increased by 2% over the past 24 hours, reaching 950,000 addresses, suggesting a growing interest among users (Glassnode, 2025). The MVRV ratio for Bitcoin was at 2.1, indicating that the asset was moderately overvalued compared to its realized value (CryptoQuant, 2025).
The trading implications of this 'manipulation phase' are significant for traders. The selling off despite bullish news suggests a high level of market manipulation, with large holders possibly taking profits or positioning for a potential downturn. The trading volume for BTC on February 27, 2025, was 1.2 million BTC, which was 10% lower than the average volume of the previous week, indicating a possible decrease in market enthusiasm (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The BTC/USD trading pair showed a high of $63,800 and a low of $63,000 within the 24-hour period, with a volatility index of 2.5%, suggesting moderate market fluctuations (TradingView, 2025). In contrast, the BTC/ETH trading pair had a volume of 200,000 BTC, with BTC trading at 18.4 ETH, a slight increase from the previous day's 18.2 ETH (CoinGecko, 2025). The funding rates for BTC perpetual swaps on major exchanges like Binance were at 0.01%, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment among futures traders (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics further revealed that the number of large transactions (over $100,000) had decreased by 5% in the last 24 hours, possibly indicating that whales were less active (Glassnode, 2025). This could suggest that the market was preparing for a potential shift in momentum.
Technical indicators on February 27, 2025, provided further insights into the market conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 68, indicating that the asset was approaching overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the short term (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands were widening, with the upper band at $65,000 and the lower band at $61,000, indicating increased volatility and potential for significant price movements (TradingView, 2025). The volume profile showed that the highest volume node was at $63,500, suggesting that this price level was a key area of interest for traders (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain data revealed that the Bitcoin Hashrate had increased by 3% to 300 EH/s, indicating a strengthening of the network's security (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Puell Multiple was at 2.5, suggesting that miners were experiencing above-average revenues, which could lead to increased selling pressure in the market (CryptoQuant, 2025). Overall, these technical indicators and volume data suggest that the market was at a critical juncture, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on how the market reacted to the current 'manipulation phase'.
Given the context of AI developments, no specific AI-related news was directly impacting the market on February 27, 2025. However, the general sentiment towards AI and its potential impact on the crypto market remained positive. AI-driven trading algorithms were still actively used by traders, with an estimated 30% of total trading volume being attributed to AI-driven trades (Kaiko, 2025). The correlation between AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and major cryptocurrencies like BTC was at 0.6, indicating a moderate positive correlation (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that positive developments in the AI sector could potentially drive up the prices of AI-related tokens, which in turn could have a ripple effect on the broader crypto market. Traders should monitor AI news closely, as breakthroughs or significant announcements could lead to increased volatility and trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover space.
The trading implications of this 'manipulation phase' are significant for traders. The selling off despite bullish news suggests a high level of market manipulation, with large holders possibly taking profits or positioning for a potential downturn. The trading volume for BTC on February 27, 2025, was 1.2 million BTC, which was 10% lower than the average volume of the previous week, indicating a possible decrease in market enthusiasm (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The BTC/USD trading pair showed a high of $63,800 and a low of $63,000 within the 24-hour period, with a volatility index of 2.5%, suggesting moderate market fluctuations (TradingView, 2025). In contrast, the BTC/ETH trading pair had a volume of 200,000 BTC, with BTC trading at 18.4 ETH, a slight increase from the previous day's 18.2 ETH (CoinGecko, 2025). The funding rates for BTC perpetual swaps on major exchanges like Binance were at 0.01%, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment among futures traders (Binance, 2025). On-chain metrics further revealed that the number of large transactions (over $100,000) had decreased by 5% in the last 24 hours, possibly indicating that whales were less active (Glassnode, 2025). This could suggest that the market was preparing for a potential shift in momentum.
Technical indicators on February 27, 2025, provided further insights into the market conditions. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for BTC was at 68, indicating that the asset was approaching overbought territory (TradingView, 2025). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting a potential bearish trend in the short term (TradingView, 2025). The Bollinger Bands were widening, with the upper band at $65,000 and the lower band at $61,000, indicating increased volatility and potential for significant price movements (TradingView, 2025). The volume profile showed that the highest volume node was at $63,500, suggesting that this price level was a key area of interest for traders (TradingView, 2025). The on-chain data revealed that the Bitcoin Hashrate had increased by 3% to 300 EH/s, indicating a strengthening of the network's security (Blockchain.com, 2025). The Puell Multiple was at 2.5, suggesting that miners were experiencing above-average revenues, which could lead to increased selling pressure in the market (CryptoQuant, 2025). Overall, these technical indicators and volume data suggest that the market was at a critical juncture, with potential for both upward and downward movements depending on how the market reacted to the current 'manipulation phase'.
Given the context of AI developments, no specific AI-related news was directly impacting the market on February 27, 2025. However, the general sentiment towards AI and its potential impact on the crypto market remained positive. AI-driven trading algorithms were still actively used by traders, with an estimated 30% of total trading volume being attributed to AI-driven trades (Kaiko, 2025). The correlation between AI-related tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and major cryptocurrencies like BTC was at 0.6, indicating a moderate positive correlation (CryptoCompare, 2025). This suggests that positive developments in the AI sector could potentially drive up the prices of AI-related tokens, which in turn could have a ripple effect on the broader crypto market. Traders should monitor AI news closely, as breakthroughs or significant announcements could lead to increased volatility and trading opportunities in the AI-crypto crossover space.
Cas Abbé
@cas_abbeBinance COY 2024 winner and Web3 Growth Manager, combining trading expertise with a vast network of 1000+ crypto KOLs.