Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest uplift in the wake of geopolitical developments, with former President Donald Trump's announcement delaying potential U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. According to AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth via Yahoo Finance, Trump's two-week hiatus reduced immediate intervention risks, calming risk assets like cryptocurrencies. By late Friday, BTC traded near $107,252.90, reflecting a 0.98% increase over 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) rose to $2,467.12, up 1.83%. This sentiment shift coincided with a 1.7% drop in oil prices and gains in European stock indices, as tracked by Polymarket prediction data showing odds of U.S. action falling from 70% to 40% within the month. Despite this relief, the broader CoinDesk 20 index saw a 0.76% gain, indicating cautious optimism but lingering uncertainty as analysts monitor macro indicators like upcoming U.S. PMI data on June 23.

Technical Analysis and Price Targets

Bitcoin's price action shows resilience, reclaiming its monthly open after testing the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key support level near $104,000. Currently capped by the 20-day EMA, BTC faces immediate resistance at $109,000, with a decisive close above this level potentially invalidating bearish patterns and paving the way for upside continuation. Technical indicators suggest that holding above $106,000 could trigger a push toward the Monday high of $109,000, offering entry opportunities for bullish traders. However, failure to breach resistance may lead to consolidation, with critical support at $102,000 acting as a buffer against deeper corrections. Ethereum mirrors this trend, trading at $2,467.12 with resistance near $2,600, while altcoins like BCH surged 3.73% to $500.00, highlighting intra-market divergences.

Derivatives and On-Chain Metrics

Derivatives markets reveal subdued activity, with total open interest (OI) across major venues at $56.73 billion, down from a June 11 peak of $65.95 billion, according to Velo data. Binance leads with $24.5 billion in OI, while ETH options on Deribit hit a yearly high of 2.58 million contracts, expiring June 27 with a put/call ratio of 0.43 favoring calls. Funding rates remain elevated, with BTC at 10.95% APR on Bybit and ETH at 10.05% on Binance, signaling bullish sentiment, though BNB shows negative prints of -22.73% on Bybit, indicating short pressure. On-chain data from CryptoQuant and Glassnode paints a mixed picture: ETF inflows have plummeted 60% since April, whale buying slowed by half, and short-term holders dumped 800,000 BTC since late May, raising concerns over demand sustainability. Coinglass reports $131.89 million in liquidations, 56% short-focused, with clusters between $106,000 and $108,000 suggesting leveraged positions were cleared.

Despite the geopolitical reprieve, CryptoQuant analysts warn of a potential BTC drop to $92,000 if demand fails to rebound, citing dwindling institutional flows and on-chain lethargy. Trading strategies should include tight stop-losses below $104,000 for longs and scaling into positions near support, while monitoring ETH's $3,200 call concentration for volatility plays. Upcoming events like CME's spot-quoted futures launch on June 30 could bolster liquidity, but token unlocks such as Optimism's (OP) $17.34 million release on June 30 may add sell pressure. Overall, BTC dominance at 65% underscores a risk-on environment, yet traders must stay vigilant for macro catalysts like U.S. PMI data to navigate near-term swings.