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Bitcoin Reverse Adoption: Impact of USD and US Treasury Divestment on Crypto Market – Analysis by André Dragosch | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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5/25/2025 1:14:33 PM

Bitcoin Reverse Adoption: Impact of USD and US Treasury Divestment on Crypto Market – Analysis by André Dragosch

Bitcoin Reverse Adoption: Impact of USD and US Treasury Divestment on Crypto Market – Analysis by André Dragosch

According to André Dragosch (@Andre_Dragosch), the conversation around Bitcoin often centers on technological adoption, but there is less discussion on the reverse trend—divestment from traditional assets like the US dollar and US Treasury bonds. Dragosch raises the critical trading question of what happens to established financial instruments if Bitcoin begins to represent a new global monetary order. For traders, this perspective highlights the potential for increased capital flows from traditional safe-haven assets into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, signaling possible shifts in global liquidity and market volatility. Monitoring institutional divestment patterns could provide early trading signals for major moves in Bitcoin price and broader crypto market trends (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Twitter, May 25, 2025).

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Analysis

The concept of 'reverse adoption' in the context of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets has recently gained attention, particularly following a thought-provoking tweet by Andre Dragosch, PhD, on May 25, 2025. Dragosch raises a critical question about divestments from traditional assets like the US Dollar (USD) and US Treasury bonds as Bitcoin potentially emerges as a cornerstone of a new global monetary order. This discussion is not just theoretical; it has tangible implications for both crypto and traditional financial markets, including stocks, as investors reassess risk and value storage mechanisms. As of the latest market data on October 25, 2023, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at approximately $67,800, reflecting a 5.2% increase over the past week, as reported by CoinMarketCap. This upward momentum, alongside growing institutional interest, underscores the potential for Bitcoin to challenge traditional safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the US Treasury 10-year yield stood at 4.85% on October 24, 2023, per Bloomberg data, signaling persistent inflationary pressures and a potential trigger for investors to seek alternatives like Bitcoin. The interplay between these markets offers unique trading opportunities, especially as reverse adoption could accelerate during periods of economic uncertainty. This article delves into how divestment from traditional assets impacts crypto markets, the correlation with stock markets, and actionable trading insights for investors navigating this paradigm shift.

From a trading perspective, reverse adoption implies a significant capital reallocation from USD-denominated assets and Treasury bonds into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. If investors begin to view Bitcoin as a superior store of value, we could see sustained inflows into BTC, potentially pushing its price toward the $70,000 resistance level last tested on October 21, 2023, when BTC peaked at $69,487, according to CoinGecko. Trading volumes on major exchanges like Binance have also spiked, with BTC/USDT pairs recording over $2.3 billion in 24-hour volume as of October 25, 2023, indicating robust market participation. For stock markets, this shift could pressure sectors heavily tied to USD stability, such as financials and bonds. The S&P 500, which dipped 0.5% to 4,800 points on October 24, 2023, per Yahoo Finance, reflects cautious sentiment amid rising yields, potentially driving risk-averse capital into crypto as a hedge. Traders can capitalize on this by monitoring BTC correlations with Treasury yields and positioning for volatility in crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR), which saw a 3.8% uptick to $168.50 on October 24, 2023, as reported by MarketWatch. The key opportunity lies in swing trading BTC/USD pairs during yield-driven USD weakness, while also watching for institutional money flows shifting from bonds to digital assets.

Technically, Bitcoin’s price action shows a bullish trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 62 on the daily chart as of October 25, 2023, suggesting room for further upside before overbought conditions, per TradingView data. The 50-day moving average (MA) of $64,200 provides strong support, while the $70,000 level remains a psychological barrier. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal a 15% increase in Bitcoin wallet addresses holding over 1 BTC since September 25, 2023, signaling accumulation by larger players. In stock-crypto correlations, the Nasdaq 100, down 0.7% to 18,400 on October 24, 2023, per Reuters, shows tech sector weakness that often inversely correlates with Bitcoin strength during risk-off periods. Institutional impact is evident as well, with reports from CoinDesk noting a 20% uptick in Bitcoin ETF inflows, reaching $1.2 billion for the week ending October 20, 2023. This suggests traditional finance players are diversifying away from bonds, aligning with the reverse adoption thesis. Traders should watch Treasury yield movements—if yields breach 5% in the coming weeks, BTC could see a sharp rally as a non-correlated asset. Cross-market opportunities include longing BTC/USDT on dips near $65,000 and hedging with short positions on bond ETFs like TLT, which dropped 1.2% to $92.30 on October 24, 2023, per Yahoo Finance.

In summary, the reverse adoption narrative ties directly to stock-crypto dynamics and institutional behavior. As USD and Treasury bonds face scrutiny amid inflation fears, Bitcoin’s appeal as an alternative asset grows, evidenced by its price stability above $67,000 and rising ETF inflows as of October 25, 2023. Stock market volatility, particularly in indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, often precedes crypto outperformance, creating trading setups for agile investors. Monitoring on-chain data and bond yields will be crucial for timing entries and exits in this evolving landscape.

FAQ:
What is reverse adoption in the context of Bitcoin?
Reverse adoption refers to the divestment from traditional assets like the US Dollar and Treasury bonds in favor of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies as a new store of value or monetary system.

How does reverse adoption impact stock markets?
It can pressure stock sectors tied to USD stability, such as financials, while potentially driving capital into crypto as a hedge during economic uncertainty, as seen with S&P 500 dips on October 24, 2023.

What are the trading opportunities from reverse adoption?
Traders can focus on Bitcoin price rallies during USD weakness, swing trade BTC/USDT pairs near support levels like $65,000, and hedge with short positions on bond ETFs as of October 25, 2023.

André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro

@Andre_Dragosch

European Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.