The cryptocurrency market has been a rollercoaster in recent months, and a recent tweet from Alistair Milne, retweeted by Excellion on May 18, 2025, raises an intriguing question: 'Why aren't we at new all-time highs (ATHs) when Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy are buying Bitcoin non-stop?' Milne's commentary points to retail investors capitulating after losses in memecoins and low-quality altcoins, selling off even their profitable investments due to weak time preference. This sentiment reflects a broader market dynamic where short-term panic overrides long-term conviction, even as institutional players like Saylor continue to accumulate. As of May 18, 2025, Bitcoin's price hovered around 62,500 USD on major exchanges like Binance, down from a peak of 73,800 USD in March 2024, according to data from CoinGecko. This stagnation, despite MicroStrategy's reported purchase of an additional 11,931 BTC between April and May 2025 for approximately 786 million USD as per their SEC filings, underscores a disconnect between institutional buying and retail sentiment. Meanwhile, the stock market, particularly tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq, which rose 1.2 percent on May 17, 2025, as reported by Bloomberg, shows resilience, yet crypto markets fail to mirror this optimism. This divergence highlights how retail capitulation and risk aversion are stifling Bitcoin's momentum, even as corporate treasuries bolster their positions. Understanding this dynamic is crucial for traders looking to navigate the current landscape of Bitcoin trading and cross-market correlations.

From a trading perspective, Milne's observation about retail capitulation offers critical insights into market psychology and potential opportunities. As retail investors exit positions, often at a loss, trading volume for Bitcoin on exchanges like Coinbase saw a dip of 15 percent week-over-week, dropping to 2.1 billion USD on May 17, 2025, based on data from CryptoQuant. This selling pressure from weaker hands contrasts sharply with on-chain metrics showing large wallet addresses (holding over 1,000 BTC) increasing their holdings by 0.8 percent in the same period, as noted by Glassnode. For traders, this suggests a potential bottoming pattern as accumulation by 'strong hands' like Saylor could stabilize prices. Cross-market analysis also reveals that while the S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent on May 16, 2025, per Yahoo Finance, Bitcoin's correlation with equities remains weak at 0.3, according to CoinMetrics data for May 2025. This decoupling presents opportunities for traders to hedge positions by diversifying into crypto during stock market uptrends without expecting direct price correlation. Additionally, crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw a 3.5 percent uptick to 1,620 USD per share on May 17, 2025, as per Nasdaq data, reflecting institutional confidence in Bitcoin's long-term value. Traders could exploit this by monitoring MSTR as a proxy for Bitcoin sentiment while capitalizing on short-term dips in BTC/USDT pairs on Binance, where volatility spiked 12 percent on May 18, 2025.

Diving into technical indicators, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart sat at 42 as of May 18, 2025, at 12:00 UTC, signaling oversold conditions, per TradingView data. The 50-day moving average (MA) at 65,000 USD acted as resistance, with Bitcoin failing to break through since May 10, 2025. Volume analysis shows a decline in spot trading activity, with Binance recording 1.8 billion USD in BTC/USDT trades on May 17, 2025, down from 2.3 billion USD a week prior, indicating reduced retail participation. On-chain metrics from Glassnode further reveal a Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) ratio of 0.25 as of May 18, 2025, suggesting many holders are underwater, aligning with Milne's capitulation narrative. Meanwhile, correlation with stock markets remains a key focus for traders. The Nasdaq's bullish momentum, with a volume increase of 8 percent on May 17, 2025, as reported by Reuters, contrasts with Bitcoin's sideways movement, hinting at a potential risk-off sentiment in crypto. Institutional money flow, however, tells a different story—MicroStrategy's consistent buying, alongside Grayscale's Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) inflows of 45 million USD on May 16, 2025, per Grayscale reports, suggests smart money is positioning for a rebound. Traders should watch key support at 60,000 USD on BTC/USD pairs, as a break below could trigger further retail selling, while a push above 65,000 USD might signal renewed bullish momentum.

In terms of stock-crypto correlation, the current low correlation coefficient of 0.3 between Bitcoin and the S&P 500, as per CoinMetrics data for May 2025, indicates that crypto markets are less influenced by traditional equities than in previous cycles. However, crypto-related stocks like Coinbase Global (COIN) rose 2.8 percent to 225 USD on May 17, 2025, per Yahoo Finance, mirroring MicroStrategy's gains and reflecting indirect bullish sentiment on Bitcoin. This suggests institutional investors are bridging the gap between traditional and digital assets, potentially driving future inflows into crypto ETFs like the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which saw 30 million USD in inflows on May 16, 2025, according to BlackRock data. For traders, this presents a dual opportunity: leveraging stock market gains to predict crypto sentiment shifts and using crypto-specific stocks as leading indicators for Bitcoin price movements. Monitoring these cross-market dynamics, alongside on-chain accumulation trends, could position traders to capitalize on the next wave of institutional-driven rallies in Bitcoin and related assets.