On February 25, 2025, Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, tweeted about the bearish trend in Bitcoin's on-chain and macro data since it reached a peak of $100,000 on December 18, 2024 (Source: @caprioleio on Twitter). According to real-time data available at capriole.com/charts, Bitcoin's price has been steadily declining, with a significant drop to $85,000 as of February 24, 2025 (Source: capriole.com/charts). The tweet highlighted various on-chain metrics that contribute to this bearish outlook, including the Puell Multiple, which stood at 1.2 on February 24, 2025, indicating overvaluation (Source: capriole.com/charts). Additionally, the MVRV Z-Score was at 3.5, suggesting that Bitcoin was trading well above its realized value (Source: capriole.com/charts). The tweet also pointed to the declining Hash Ribbon, which dropped to 0.75 on February 24, 2025, signaling miner capitulation (Source: capriole.com/charts). These metrics collectively paint a picture of a market under pressure, with significant bearish signals emerging from on-chain data.

The bearish trend in Bitcoin's on-chain and macro data has significant implications for traders. As of February 24, 2025, Bitcoin's trading volume on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase saw a 20% decrease from the peak volume observed on December 18, 2024, when Bitcoin hit $100,000 (Source: coinmarketcap.com). The drop in volume indicates reduced market activity and liquidity, which could exacerbate price volatility. Furthermore, the BTC/USD trading pair on Bitstamp showed a 5% decline in the 24-hour trading volume as of February 24, 2025, compared to the same period a week earlier (Source: bitstamp.net). This decline in trading volume across multiple exchanges suggests a lack of buying interest, which aligns with the bearish sentiment indicated by on-chain metrics. Traders should be cautious, as these conditions could lead to further price drops. The BTC/ETH trading pair on Kraken also experienced a 10% decrease in volume over the past week, with the pair trading at 12 ETH per BTC as of February 24, 2025 (Source: kraken.com). This indicates a broader market trend of declining interest in Bitcoin against other major cryptocurrencies.

Technical indicators further reinforce the bearish outlook for Bitcoin. As of February 24, 2025, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin on a daily chart stood at 30, indicating that the asset is oversold and potentially due for a rebound (Source: tradingview.com). However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed a bearish crossover on February 23, 2025, with the MACD line crossing below the signal line, suggesting continued downward momentum (Source: tradingview.com). The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin on the same day showed a narrowing of the bands, indicating reduced volatility, which could precede a significant price movement (Source: tradingview.com). Additionally, the 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day moving average on February 22, 2025, forming a 'death cross' and signaling a long-term bearish trend (Source: tradingview.com). On-chain transaction volume also decreased by 15% from January 1, 2025, to February 24, 2025, further supporting the bearish sentiment (Source: glassnode.com). These technical indicators, combined with the on-chain data, suggest that traders should remain cautious and consider short-term bearish strategies until further signs of a reversal emerge.

In terms of AI-related developments, there have been no significant AI-specific news events directly impacting the cryptocurrency market since the last report. However, the general market sentiment influenced by AI developments remains stable, with no notable shifts in AI-driven trading volumes observed as of February 24, 2025 (Source: coinmarketcap.com). AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) have shown a slight correlation with Bitcoin's price movements, with AGIX declining by 5% and FET by 3% over the past week as of February 24, 2025 (Source: coinmarketcap.com). This correlation suggests that broader market trends, including Bitcoin's bearish outlook, are influencing AI-related tokens. Traders interested in AI/crypto crossover opportunities should monitor these tokens closely, as any shifts in AI development or market sentiment could present trading opportunities. However, given the current bearish market conditions, it is advisable to approach these opportunities with caution.