Bitcoin Approaches $107,000 as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Assets Amid Fed Policy Focus

Bitcoin surged to near $107,000 on Wednesday, climbing 1.7% over the past 24 hours to $106,693.69 by 4 p.m. ET, as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel alleviated immediate geopolitical risks and spurred a rally in global risk assets. The broader CoinDesk 20 index gained 1%, reflecting broad-based crypto strength, with Bitcoin's 24-hour high reaching $107,653.91 and low at $106,304.78, according to real-time market data. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted that initial optimism lifted markets, but lingering doubts emerged after U.S. intelligence reports questioned the effectiveness of strikes against Iran's nuclear capabilities, potentially resurfacing military tensions and capping gains. This relief wave, combined with easing oil supply fears, saw traders rotate into cryptocurrencies, with Ethereum rising 0.19% to $2,421.55 and altcoins like XRP jumping 5.5% to $2.1986 amid elevated trading volumes.

Fed Chair Powell's Testimony and Rate Cut Expectations Drive Market Sentiment

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday reinforced a cautious stance on interest-rate cuts, emphasizing persistent inflation and tariff-related pressures, which Bitunix analysts noted as fostering short-term uncertainty but overall support for risk assets. Powell's comments preceded a softening in U.S. consumer-confidence data, which pushed two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and increased the probability of a July rate cut to 20%, up from 13% a week ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in an 18% chance of a cut, with Powell's upcoming Senate testimony today expected to provide further clarity amid political pressure for lower rates. Bitcoin's resilience was evident as it held above key support at $105,000, with derivatives data showing neutral positioning; Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observed straddle sales and short puts near $100,000-$105,000, indicating expectations of tight price action ahead of the June 27 options expiry, while call option buying at $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September suggests underlying bullishness.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded robust inflows of $588.6 million, according to Farside Investors, bringing cumulative net flows to $47.58 billion and total BTC holdings to approximately 1.23 million. Ethereum ETFs saw $71.3 million in inflows, with total ETH holdings at 4.02 million. On-chain metrics, such as Bitcoin's annualized three-month futures basis on offshore exchanges rising to 5% from recent lows, and perpetual funding rates on Binance at 0.0048% (5.26% annualized), signal stabilizing sentiment. The ETH/BTC ratio declined 1.78% to 0.02269, while BTC dominance edged up 0.38% to 65.52%, underscoring Bitcoin's leadership. Technical analysis reveals opportunities, such as the XRP/BTC pair forming a falling wedge pattern on Binance, which could indicate a bullish reversal upon breakout, with traders eyeing key resistance levels.

Upcoming Macro Events and Trading Strategies for Crypto Markets

Key events today include Fed Chair Powell's Senate testimony at 10 a.m. ET, which could sway markets based on inflation and rate cut signals, alongside the NATO summit discussions on security. Macro data releases on June 26, such as U.S. durable goods orders and Q1 GDP figures, will provide critical cues; for instance, durable goods orders excluding transportation are estimated at 0% month-over-month, down from 0.2% previously, which could impact risk appetite. Crypto-specific events like Core's Theseus hard fork activation and ZIGChain mainnet launch today add volatility potential, while token unlocks, such as Optimism's $17.13 million unlock on June 30, may pressure prices. Traders should monitor support levels at $105,000 for BTC and resistance at $108,000, with strategies favoring range-bound plays in derivatives and long positions on breakouts, given the current ETF inflows and modest bullish indicators. Vigilance is advised due to geopolitical fragility and economic data surprises, but the overall setup supports cautious optimism for near-term gains in major cryptocurrencies.