Bitcoin Price Surge to $107K Driven by Geopolitical Ceasefire and Fed Policy Outlook

Bitcoin traded near $107,000 on Wednesday, rising 1.36% over the past 24 hours to $106,693.69 as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, according to market data. This upward movement was fueled by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel, which alleviated immediate fears of an oil supply crunch and boosted global risk assets. Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, explained that while initial optimism lifted markets, doubts are emerging about the truce's durability, particularly after a leaked U.S. intelligence report questioned the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities. This geopolitical relief, combined with broader market sentiment, saw the CoinDesk 20 index gain 1%, highlighting crypto's correlation with traditional equities during risk-on phases.

Fed Chair Powell's Testimony and Interest Rate Implications

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to House lawmakers on Tuesday reinforced a cautious stance on interest rate cuts, emphasizing persistent inflation and potential tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts noted that Powell's "wait-and-see" approach injects short-term uncertainty but remains supportive of risk assets overall. Concurrently, U.S. consumer-confidence data softened, pushing two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and increasing the perceived chance of a July rate cut to about 20%, up from 13% a week ago, as tracked by the CME FedWatch tool. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in an 18% probability of a cut, adding to market volatility. Powell's upcoming testimony before the Senate Banking Committee later today is critical, with President Trump advocating for lower rates, creating a high-stakes environment for crypto traders monitoring dollar strength and liquidity flows.

Derivatives and Technical Analysis Point to Range-Bound Trading

Crypto derivatives markets indicate a neutral to slightly bullish near-term outlook. Jake O, OTC trader at Wintermute, reported that traders are selling straddles and short puts around $105,000 and $100,000 for the June 27 expiry, suggesting expectations of tight price action between these levels. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September expiries reveals a modest bullish inclination. On-chain metrics show Bitcoin's annualized three-month futures basis on offshore exchanges at 5%, below May highs of over 7%, while perpetual funding rates on Binance stand at 0.0048% (5.26% annualized), reflecting moderate bullish sentiment. Technically, the Binance-listed XRP/BTC pair is trading in a falling wedge pattern, with converging trendlines indicating a potential bullish reversal as selling pressure eases, offering traders a setup for breakout opportunities.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $588.6 million, with cumulative flows reaching $47.58 billion and total holdings of approximately 1.23 million BTC, according to Farside Investors. Similarly, spot Ethereum ETFs saw $71.3 million in daily inflows, totaling $4.09 billion and holding about 4.02 million ETH. Key events to watch include Fed Chair Powell's Senate testimony today, CME Group's introduction of spot-quoted futures on June 30 (pending approval), which will allow long-term trading in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and major U.S. equity indices, and upcoming token unlocks like Optimism's $17.13 million unlock on June 30. Traders should focus on support at $105,000 and resistance at $108,000 for BTC, using range-bound strategies amid current uncertainties, while monitoring inflation data and tariff developments for directional shifts.