Bitcoin Approaches $107K as Ceasefire Boosts Risk Assets, Fed Testimony Looms

Cryptocurrency markets rallied on Wednesday, with Bitcoin BTC surging to near $107,000, marking a 1.7% gain over the past 24 hours, as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel alleviated fears of an immediate oil supply crunch and spurred a broad shift into risk assets. The CoinDesk 20 index climbed 1%, reflecting widespread optimism across digital assets. However, Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, highlighted emerging doubts about the truce's durability, citing a leaked U.S. intelligence report that questioned the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities, which could reignite geopolitical tensions and undermine the rally. Concurrently, Bitcoin traded at $106,693.69 as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, up 0.51% from that time, with Ether ETH at $2,421.55, down 1.2% over the same period, according to real-time market data.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Tuesday added layers to the market dynamics, as he advocated for patience on interest-rate cuts amid elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts noted that this "wait-and-see" approach injects short-term uncertainty but supports risk assets by offering policy flexibility. Supporting this, U.S. consumer-confidence data softened, pushing two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and raising the perceived chance of a July rate cut to 20% via the CME's FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week earlier. Polymarket traders echoed this sentiment with an 18% probability for a cut. Today, Powell's Senate testimony at 10 a.m. ET will be closely monitored, especially amid political pressure from former President Donald Trump for steeper rate reductions, potentially influencing crypto volatility as investors weigh inflation risks against easing prospects.

Derivatives and Options Signal Range-Bound Trading Ahead

Crypto derivatives activity reveals a cautious stance among traders as the June 27 expiry approaches. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, observed that desks sold straddles and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000 for Bitcoin, indicating expectations of tight price action with limited immediate movement. Conversely, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September expiries points to a modest bullish bias for higher levels. Bitcoin's funding rate on Binance stood at 0.0048% (5.2626% annualized), while the annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges held at 5%, below May highs above 7%, reflecting stabilized but tempered sentiment. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $588.6 million, with cumulative flows reaching $47.58 billion and holdings of approximately 1.23 million BTC, according to Farside Investors, underscoring sustained institutional interest despite short-term uncertainties.

Key Events and Technical Outlook for Traders

Upcoming catalysts include the Theseus hard fork activation on Core CORE mainnet and ZIGChain ZIG mainnet launch on June 25, which could spur volatility in associated tokens. The CME Group's planned introduction of spot-quoted futures for Bitcoin, Ether, and U.S. equity indices on June 30, pending approval, offers long-term trading opportunities with five-year contracts. Macro events like today's Powell testimony, June 26 durable goods orders data, and final Q1 GDP figures will provide critical cues for crypto correlations. Technically, the XRP/BTC pair on Binance trades in a falling wedge pattern, with converging trendlines signaling weakening bearish momentum and potential for a bullish breakout; traders should watch support near $100,000 and resistance around $108,000 for Bitcoin. With token unlocks such as Optimism OP releasing $17.13 million worth on June 30, and ETF flows indicating resilience, strategic entries near support levels could capitalize on geopolitical and economic shifts.