Bitcoin surged to near $107,000 on Wednesday, marking a 1.7% gain over the past 24 hours and reaching an intraday high of $108,209.12, as a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel eased geopolitical fears and spurred a broad-based rally in risk assets. According to Francisco Rodrigues, the broader CoinDesk 20 index climbed 1%, reflecting increased investor confidence amid reduced oil supply concerns. However, Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, cautioned that optimism could be fleeting due to doubts about the truce holding, citing U.S. intelligence leaks questioning the effectiveness of strikes on Iran's nuclear capabilities. This sentiment shift underscores the volatile nature of crypto markets, where Bitcoin's dominance rose to 65.52%, indicating its resilience as a haven asset during uncertain times.

Federal Reserve Policy and Market Reactions

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday added momentum to the rally, as he emphasized a patient approach to interest rate cuts, noting elevated inflation and potential tariff pressures. Bitunix analysts highlighted in an email statement that Powell's wait-and-see stance introduces short-term uncertainty but supports risk assets overall. Concurrently, U.S. consumer confidence data softened, pulling two-year Treasury yields down to a six-week low of 3.78% and raising the probability of a July rate cut to about 20%, per the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week prior. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in an 18% chance, with Powell's upcoming Senate testimony on June 25 at 10 a.m. ET likely to drive further volatility. Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets was evident, as the S&P 500 closed up 1.11% at 6,092.18, suggesting cross-market opportunities where crypto traders could leverage Fed-driven shifts for strategic entries near support levels like $105,000.

Derivatives and Options Positioning

Crypto derivatives markets signaled a neutral to cautiously bullish outlook, with Bitcoin futures basis on offshore exchanges stabilizing at 5% annualized for three-month contracts, below May's peak of over 7%. Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute, reported traders selling straddles and short puts around $105,000 and $100,000, indicating expectations of tight price action ahead of the June 27 expiry. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September points to modest bullish sentiment. On Deribit, the BTC put-call ratio rose, partly due to interest in cash-secured puts for yield generation. Perpetual funding rates on Binance remained positive at 0.0048% (5.2626% annualized), supporting upside potential. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $588.6 million in daily net inflows, with cumulative holdings now at 1.23 million BTC, according to Farside Investors, reinforcing institutional confidence. Ethereum's CESR staking rate edged up to 3.14%, while ETH spot ETFs saw $71.3 million in inflows, holding 4.02 million ETH.

Technical analysis reveals key trading patterns, such as the Binance-listed XRP/BTC pair trading in a falling wedge with converging trendlines, suggesting a potential bullish reversal if it breaks out. Bitcoin's hashrate held steady at 799 EH/s, with hashprice at $54, indicating miner stability. Altcoins showed mixed performance: Ethereum gained 0.19% to $2,421.55, while Solana dipped 1.619% to $143.42 amid higher volatility. BCH surged 4.159% to $495.90 on Binance USDT pairs, offering short-term momentum plays. Upcoming token unlocks, like Optimism's $17.13 million release on June 30, could pressure prices, advising traders to monitor supply increases for exit strategies. Events such as Core's Theseus hard fork on June 25 and ZIGChain mainnet launch present catalysts for speculative trades.

Looking ahead, traders should watch Powell's Senate testimony and key macro data, including May durable goods orders and Q1 GDP figures on June 26, which could sway rate cut expectations. With Bitcoin testing resistance near $108,000, support at $100,000 remains critical; a breach below could trigger liquidations, while a hold above signals buying opportunities. Overall, the ceasefire and Fed narrative provide a supportive backdrop, but vigilance on geopolitical risks and inflation data is essential for risk management in volatile crypto markets.