Bitcoin BTC surged toward the $107,000 mark on Wednesday, fueled by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel that eased geopolitical tensions and spurred a broader risk-on rally across global markets. As of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, BTC traded at $106,693.69, reflecting a 1.36% gain over 24 hours, while the CoinDesk 20 index climbed 1%. This uptick mirrored gains in equities, with the S&P 500 closing up 1.11% at 6,092.18 on Tuesday, as traders shifted away from safe-haven assets like gold, which saw futures rise only 0.07% to $3,336.20. However, Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, cautioned that optimism might be fleeting, noting that leaked U.S. intelligence reports questioning the effectiveness of strikes against Tehran's nuclear capabilities have reignited fears of renewed conflict, potentially undermining the ceasefire's stability and dampening crypto momentum.

Fed Policy and Market Sentiment

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday added another layer to the market dynamics, as he emphasized a patient approach to interest-rate cuts amid persistent inflation concerns. Powell highlighted risks from upcoming tariffs, which Bitunix analysts interpreted in an emailed statement as creating short-term uncertainty but overall supporting risk assets like BTC. Concurrently, U.S. consumer-confidence data softened, driving two-year Treasury yields to a six-week low of 3.78% and boosting the perceived chance of a July rate cut to about 20%, up from 13% a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Traders are now eyeing Powell's Senate testimony later today for further clues, especially with President Trump's public pressure for lower rates. This macro backdrop, combined with BTC's resilience above $100,000, suggests potential volatility; derivatives data shows traders sold straddles and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000 for the June 27 expiry, indicating expectations of tight price action, as noted by Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute.

Derivatives and Trading Opportunities

Bitcoin's derivatives market paints a nuanced picture, with the annualized three-month BTC futures basis on offshore exchanges rising slightly to 5%, though still below May highs above 7%. On Deribit, the BTC put-call ratio increased, partly due to cash-secured puts for yield generation, while call options targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September signal a modest bullish tilt. ETH, trading at $2,421.55 with a 0.19% 24-hour gain, shows a similar basis pattern on the CME, slightly pricier than BTC. Perpetual funding rates on Binance for BTC stand at 0.0048% (5.2626% annualized), supporting a moderately bullish outlook. For traders, this implies range-bound play between $100,000 and $105,000 in the short term, with breakout opportunities above $107,000 offering entry points. Technical analysis reveals that the XRP/BTC pair on Binance is forming a falling wedge, with converging trendlines hinting at a potential bullish reversal; a breakout could signal gains for altcoins amid BTC dominance at 65.52%.

Spot BTC ETFs recorded daily net inflows of $588.6 million, pushing cumulative flows to $47.58 billion and total holdings to approximately 1.23 million BTC, as tracked by Farside Investors. ETH ETFs saw $71.3 million in inflows, with holdings near 4.02 million ETH. Upcoming events heighten trading risks; for instance, the Core CORE hard fork on June 25 and ZIGChain ZIG mainnet launch could spur volatility in layer-1 tokens, while the June 30 unlock of Optimism OP tokens worth $17.13 million might pressure prices. Additionally, the CME's pending introduction of spot-quoted futures for BTC, ETH, and major indices on June 30 could enhance institutional participation. Investors should monitor Powell's Senate testimony today and durable goods orders data tomorrow, as weak figures could amplify rate-cut bets and boost crypto, though geopolitical uncertainties and tariff risks remain headwinds.