Bitcoin maintained resilience near the $105,000 threshold despite escalating Middle East tensions triggered by former President Donald Trump labeling Iran's leader an easy target. As of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, BTC traded at $104,736.41, down 1.19% over 24 hours, while ETH hovered at $2,526.50, down 1.34%. This relative stability occurred amid heightened geopolitical risks, with prediction market Polymarket indicating a 62% probability of U.S. military involvement in the Iran-Israel conflict—up from 50% just 24 hours prior—and a 73% chance of action before August. Institutional accumulation offset panic selling, evidenced by corporate treasury expansions: Strategy added over 10,000 BTC via its STRD offering, The Blockchain Group acquired 182 BTC this week, Fold secured a $250 million bitcoin purchasing facility, and Mercury Fintech plans an $800 million treasury raise. Concurrently, regulatory tailwinds emerged as the U.S. Senate passed the GENIUS Act, marking the first major stablecoin legislation approval. According to QCP Capital analysts, BTC's 3% Friday pullback contrasted sharply with April 2023's 8% plunge during similar tensions, signaling maturing market structure. Deribit's BTC Volatility Index (DVOL) reflected calmer sentiment, dropping to 40.86 from April's 62+ peak. Traders now await the Federal Reserve's 2 p.m. ET rate decision, with CME FedWatch showing 99% certainty of unchanged rates at 4.25%-4.50%.

Cross-market correlations reveal crypto's growing sensitivity to traditional finance catalysts. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $216.5 million daily inflows, lifting cumulative flows to $46.24 billion, while ETH ETFs added $11.1 million, reaching $3.91 billion total per Farside Investors. These inflows underscore institutional capital bridging equity-crypto markets, though Ark Invest's $44.7 million Circle stock selloff signals profit-taking amid regulatory clarity. Geopolitical spillovers materialized in crypto-specific attacks, as Israel-linked hackers breached Iranian exchange Nobitex—following Bank Sepah infiltration—stealing $48 million. Any U.S. intervention or Iranian Strait of Hormuz closure could trigger broad risk-asset liquidation. The Dollar Index (DXY) dipped 0.17% to 98.65, but a technical breakout above its downtrend line would pressure bitcoin. Commodity correlations diverged: gold futures fell 0.19% to $3,400.40 while silver rose 0.47% to $37.33. Equity markets showed risk aversion, with S&P 500 down 0.84% at 5,982.72 and Nasdaq falling 0.91% to 19,521.09. Crypto equities like Coinbase (COIN) dropped 2.95%, though Circle (CRCL) gained 3.43%, reflecting selective positioning ahead of Fed guidance.

Technical indicators highlight critical support zones across major tokens. Bitcoin’s defense of $100,000—a psychological barrier—remains pivotal, with its 24-hour trading range spanning $99,594.16 to $105,883.31. Ethereum faces resistance at $2,600, though ETHBTC ratio edged up 0.12% to 0.02403. Chainlink’s LINK broke below its Ichimoku cloud, confirming bearish momentum; failure to hold $12.60 support risks a drop toward $10. Trading volumes showed altcoin strength: XRP surged 6.414% to $2.1585 with $41.2 million 24-hour volume, while SOL jumped 7.858% to $143.57. Derivatives positioning indicates caution: Deribit’s top five BTC options were protective puts at $90,000-$100,000 strikes, and BTC funding rates on Binance annualized at 5.28%. Mining metrics signaled stability—hashrate averaged 886 EH/s with hashprice at $53.1—while BTC dominance held at 64.90%. Macro triggers include June 18 U.S. jobless claims (est. 245K) and Brazil’s rate decision. Upcoming token unlocks pose supply pressures: Fasttoken’s $88.8 million unlock June 18, Optimism’s $17.34 million June 30, and Sui’s $120.99 million July 1. Traders should monitor XRP ETF debuts on the Toronto Stock Exchange, including Purpose’s XRPP and Evolve’s XRP.U, for liquidity shifts.