Bitcoin Weathers Geopolitical Turmoil as Markets Plunge

Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated relative resilience amid a global market rout triggered by escalating Middle East tensions, with prices dropping 2.9% over 24 hours to $104,889.07 at 4 p.m. ET on Thursday. This decline occurred as Israeli airstrikes targeted Iran's nuclear and missile sites overnight, sparking fears of a broader conflict and sending risk assets tumbling worldwide. The CoinDesk 20 Index plummeted 6.1% during the same period, reflecting broad crypto weakness, while traditional safe havens like gold futures surged 1.3% to $3,445 per ounce, approaching all-time highs. According to reports, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated the attack aimed to counter Iran's nuclear ambitions, with Iran responding by launching drones toward Israel, heightening investor anxiety and causing U.S. crude oil futures to spike over 6% to $73 per barrel. This geopolitical shock reversed earlier crypto gains driven by ETF speculation, underscoring Bitcoin's sensitivity to global risk events despite its haven narrative.

ETF Optimism Clashes with Geopolitical Risks

Solana (SOL) suffered a sharp 9.5% drop over 24 hours, erasing gains fueled by recent SEC actions on Solana ETF filings. Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, noted that reports of the SEC requesting updated S-1 filings had sparked a rally in SOL, with Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart assigning a 90% probability of approval by year-end, potentially within three to five weeks. Despite this optimism, spot crypto ETFs continued to attract inflows, with BTC funds drawing $939 million month-to-date and ETH funds $811 million, according to Farside Investors. However, market focus shifted abruptly to geopolitical threats, with Polymarket traders now pricing a 91% chance of Iranian retaliation this month. The U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate held steady at 4.365%, but U.S. index futures fell 1.2%, signaling broader risk aversion that weighed heavily on altcoins like ETH, which plunged 8.81% to $2,523.28.

Derivatives Data Reveals Defensive Sentiment and Liquidation Risks

Derivatives markets showed a stark shift toward caution, with total open interest across top venues dropping to $49.31 billion, a monthly low, down from a peak of $55 billion on June 12, as per Velo data. Binance alone shed over $2.5 billion in open interest overnight, while the BTC put/call ratio on Deribit climbed to 1.28 and the ETH ratio to 1.25, indicating increased demand for downside protection. Funding rates remained deeply negative for most assets, with ETH at -7.99% and altcoins like DOT at -15.2% and SHIB at -44.5%, though exceptions like AAVE showed positive bias at +9.95% on Bybit. Liquidations totaled $1.16 billion in the past 24 hours, with 90% affecting long positions, according to Coinglass data. Bitcoin liquidation heatmaps highlight up to $84 million in long-side open interest concentrated between $102,000 and $104,000, which could exacerbate declines if breached, given elevated leverage levels.

Technical Levels and Trading Opportunities Ahead

Ethereum faces critical technical resistance, with ETH briefly trading below $2,480 before reclaiming that level, which aligns with the 200-day exponential moving average—a key support zone since May. A daily close above $2,480 could signal strength, but current volatility demands caution. Bitcoin, while down 1.08% from Thursday's close, shows support near $102,000-$104,000, with the 50-day simple moving average at $103,150 acting as a potential floor. Upcoming events add layers of risk, including token unlocks like Arbitrum's (ARB) $31.28 million unlock on June 16 and ZKsync's (ZK) $37.26 million unlock on June 17, which may pressure prices. Macro catalysts such as the G7 Summit from June 15-17 and the U.S. Senate vote on stablecoin legislation on June 17 could sway sentiment. Traders should monitor these levels for strategic entries, as crypto markets remain volatile with high geopolitical uncertainty offering contrarian opportunities at oversold conditions.