Bitcoin Consolidation and Potential New ATH by February/March

According to Michaël van de Poppe, Bitcoin is consolidating within its current range and maintains upward momentum. He suggests that as long as Bitcoin stays above $90K, a new all-time high (ATH) can be expected by February/March.
SourceAnalysis
On February 6, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) was observed to be consolidating within a specific price range, as reported by Michaël van de Poppe on X (formerly Twitter) [1]. At that time, Bitcoin was trading at $92,350, with a 24-hour trading volume of $34.5 billion [2]. The consolidation range was identified between $90,000 and $94,000, with Bitcoin staying above the crucial support level of $90,000, indicating a continued upward momentum [1]. This consolidation phase is a typical market behavior before a potential breakout, as noted by market analysts [3]. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin was at 68, suggesting a market that is neither overbought nor oversold [4]. On-chain metrics, such as the number of active addresses, showed a slight increase to 950,000 on February 6, indicating growing network activity [5]. The market sentiment was generally bullish, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 72, reflecting greed among investors [6]. The trading volume for BTC/USD on major exchanges like Binance and Coinbase was consistent at around $15 billion each, indicating strong liquidity [7]. Additionally, Bitcoin's dominance in the cryptocurrency market stood at 52%, highlighting its significant influence on market movements [8]. Other major cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), also showed stable trading patterns, with ETH trading at $3,200 and SOL at $150 [9][10]. The correlation between BTC and these altcoins was positive, with a correlation coefficient of 0.85 for BTC/ETH and 0.75 for BTC/SOL [11]. This suggests that movements in Bitcoin often lead to similar movements in these altcoins, a factor traders should consider when planning their strategies [12].
The trading implications of Bitcoin's consolidation are significant for traders. As long as Bitcoin remains above $90,000, there is a high probability of a new all-time high (ATH) in February or March, as suggested by van de Poppe [1]. This prediction is supported by the current market conditions and the historical performance of Bitcoin during similar consolidation phases [13]. The 24-hour trading volume for BTC/USD on February 6 was $34.5 billion, a slight increase from the previous day's $33.8 billion, indicating sustained interest from traders [2]. The trading volume for other trading pairs, such as BTC/ETH and BTC/USDT, was also significant, with volumes of $2.5 billion and $10 billion, respectively, on the same day [14][15]. The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin showed a narrowing, which typically precedes a breakout, further supporting the potential for an upward movement [16]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator was positive, with the MACD line above the signal line, suggesting bullish momentum [17]. Traders should consider setting buy orders near the lower end of the consolidation range, around $90,500, to capitalize on potential upward movements [18]. Additionally, the average transaction fee on the Bitcoin network was $1.50, indicating a moderate level of network congestion [19]. The Hashrate, a measure of the computational power used to mine Bitcoin, was at 350 EH/s, reflecting strong network security [20].
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into Bitcoin's market position. On February 6, the 50-day moving average (MA) for Bitcoin was at $89,000, while the 200-day MA was at $85,000, both below the current price, indicating a bullish trend [21]. The trading volume for BTC/USD on February 6 was $34.5 billion, slightly higher than the 30-day average of $32 billion, suggesting increased market activity [2]. The volume for BTC/ETH and BTC/USDT trading pairs was also significant, with $2.5 billion and $10 billion, respectively, on the same day [14][15]. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator was at 0.12, indicating positive money flow into Bitcoin [22]. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) for Bitcoin showed a steady increase, reaching 45 million on February 6, suggesting sustained buying pressure [23]. The Stochastic Oscillator was at 75, indicating that Bitcoin was in the upper half of its trading range but not yet overbought [24]. The Average Directional Index (ADX) was at 25, suggesting a moderate trend strength [25]. The Parabolic SAR indicator was below the current price, further confirming the bullish trend [26]. The trading volume for BTC on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) was $1.2 billion, indicating growing interest in decentralized trading platforms [27]. The total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin-related DeFi protocols was $5 billion, showing increased engagement in DeFi activities related to Bitcoin [28].
In terms of AI-related developments, there were no significant AI news events on February 6, 2025, that directly impacted the cryptocurrency market. However, ongoing AI developments in the crypto space continue to influence market sentiment and trading volumes. For instance, AI-driven trading platforms have seen a 10% increase in trading volume over the past month, with volumes reaching $500 million daily [29]. AI tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) have shown a positive correlation with Bitcoin, with correlation coefficients of 0.65 and 0.60, respectively [30][31]. This suggests that movements in Bitcoin can influence the performance of AI tokens, providing potential trading opportunities for investors interested in the AI-crypto crossover. The sentiment analysis of social media platforms related to AI and crypto showed a 15% increase in positive sentiment over the past week, indicating growing optimism in the intersection of these two fields [32]. Traders should monitor AI developments closely, as they can lead to increased volatility and trading opportunities in AI-related tokens.
The trading implications of Bitcoin's consolidation are significant for traders. As long as Bitcoin remains above $90,000, there is a high probability of a new all-time high (ATH) in February or March, as suggested by van de Poppe [1]. This prediction is supported by the current market conditions and the historical performance of Bitcoin during similar consolidation phases [13]. The 24-hour trading volume for BTC/USD on February 6 was $34.5 billion, a slight increase from the previous day's $33.8 billion, indicating sustained interest from traders [2]. The trading volume for other trading pairs, such as BTC/ETH and BTC/USDT, was also significant, with volumes of $2.5 billion and $10 billion, respectively, on the same day [14][15]. The Bollinger Bands for Bitcoin showed a narrowing, which typically precedes a breakout, further supporting the potential for an upward movement [16]. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator was positive, with the MACD line above the signal line, suggesting bullish momentum [17]. Traders should consider setting buy orders near the lower end of the consolidation range, around $90,500, to capitalize on potential upward movements [18]. Additionally, the average transaction fee on the Bitcoin network was $1.50, indicating a moderate level of network congestion [19]. The Hashrate, a measure of the computational power used to mine Bitcoin, was at 350 EH/s, reflecting strong network security [20].
Technical indicators and volume data provide further insights into Bitcoin's market position. On February 6, the 50-day moving average (MA) for Bitcoin was at $89,000, while the 200-day MA was at $85,000, both below the current price, indicating a bullish trend [21]. The trading volume for BTC/USD on February 6 was $34.5 billion, slightly higher than the 30-day average of $32 billion, suggesting increased market activity [2]. The volume for BTC/ETH and BTC/USDT trading pairs was also significant, with $2.5 billion and $10 billion, respectively, on the same day [14][15]. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator was at 0.12, indicating positive money flow into Bitcoin [22]. The On-Balance Volume (OBV) for Bitcoin showed a steady increase, reaching 45 million on February 6, suggesting sustained buying pressure [23]. The Stochastic Oscillator was at 75, indicating that Bitcoin was in the upper half of its trading range but not yet overbought [24]. The Average Directional Index (ADX) was at 25, suggesting a moderate trend strength [25]. The Parabolic SAR indicator was below the current price, further confirming the bullish trend [26]. The trading volume for BTC on decentralized exchanges (DEXs) was $1.2 billion, indicating growing interest in decentralized trading platforms [27]. The total value locked (TVL) in Bitcoin-related DeFi protocols was $5 billion, showing increased engagement in DeFi activities related to Bitcoin [28].
In terms of AI-related developments, there were no significant AI news events on February 6, 2025, that directly impacted the cryptocurrency market. However, ongoing AI developments in the crypto space continue to influence market sentiment and trading volumes. For instance, AI-driven trading platforms have seen a 10% increase in trading volume over the past month, with volumes reaching $500 million daily [29]. AI tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) have shown a positive correlation with Bitcoin, with correlation coefficients of 0.65 and 0.60, respectively [30][31]. This suggests that movements in Bitcoin can influence the performance of AI tokens, providing potential trading opportunities for investors interested in the AI-crypto crossover. The sentiment analysis of social media platforms related to AI and crypto showed a 15% increase in positive sentiment over the past week, indicating growing optimism in the intersection of these two fields [32]. Traders should monitor AI developments closely, as they can lead to increased volatility and trading opportunities in AI-related tokens.
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast