Bitcoin Price Stability Amid Fed Decision and Geopolitical Tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) demonstrated remarkable resilience, holding steady around $105,032.28 as of 4 p.m. ET Wednesday, despite the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged and escalating Middle East conflicts. According to James Van Straten, BTC has not dipped below the critical $100,000 psychological threshold since May 8, marking 42 consecutive days of stability. This endurance comes even as the Israel-Iran conflict entered its seventh day, typically expected to pressure risk assets like cryptocurrencies. The Fed's latest projections revealed a downgrade in 2024 GDP growth to 1.4% from 1.7% and signaled fewer rate cuts through 2027, heightening inflation concerns. Supporting this stability is the accelerating bitcoin treasury narrative, with the total number of entities holding BTC—including public companies, private firms, and sovereign nations—reaching 235, a surge of 27 in just 30 days.

Derivatives Data Signals Market Caution

While spot prices held firm, derivatives markets flashed warning signs. Data from Velo indicates total open interest across major venues plunged to $55.3 billion, down sharply from the June 11 peak of $65.9 billion, reflecting persistent de-risking. Deribit options flows for the June 27 expiry showed a BTC put/call ratio of 1.13, driven by put demand at $100,000–$110,000 strikes, while ether (ETH) exhibited a more bullish 0.75 ratio with call clustering at $2,600 and $2,800. Funding rates on Binance flipped moderately positive at +0.03% for BTC and +7.5% for ETH, but altcoins like Avalanche (AVAX) and Bitcoin Cash (BCH) recorded deeply negative rates of -19.05% and -24.39%, respectively. Coinglass liquidation maps highlighted dense leverage concentrations between $103,000 and $106,000 for BTC, suggesting elevated risk of short-term volatility if prices break this tight 10% trading band.

Technical Analysis and Trading Opportunities

Ether reclaimed key technical levels after testing the 200-day exponential moving average, trading at $2,540.03, up 1.76% over 24 hours. A decisive close above the monthly open could signal bullish momentum toward Monday's highs. Meanwhile, BTC dominance edged up 0.06% to 64.9%, while the ETH/BTC ratio remained flat at 0.02408. Spot BTC ETFs recorded $388.3 million in daily net inflows, per Farside Investors, lifting cumulative flows to $46.63 billion. Traders should monitor imminent token unlocks: Optimism (OP) will release $17.34 million worth on June 30, Sui (SUI) $120.99 million on July 1, and Ethena (ENA) $11.23 million on July 2—events that could pressure prices if supply overwhelms demand.

Macro Crosswinds and Crypto Implications

Geopolitical risks intensified with Israel's airstrikes on Iranian nuclear targets and retaliatory attacks, pushing Brent crude up 1% to $77.45—its highest since January—and pressuring global equities. European indexes like the FTSE fell 0.27%, while U.S. futures dipped pre-holiday. Crypto's 24/7 market operation during the Juneteenth closure of U.S. exchanges underscores its unique liquidity advantages. Lion Group Holding's $600 million facility to build a Hyperliquid (HYPE) treasury, anchored by SOL and SUI, highlights institutional interest in execution-focused DeFi protocols, with HYPE funding rates spiking to +38.67% on Bybit. For traders, the compressed leverage near current BTC prices suggests potential for explosive moves; maintaining positions above $103,000 support offers upside toward $110,000 resistance, while a breakdown could trigger cascading liquidations.