Market Analysis

Bitcoin traded at $106,015.34 as of 4 p.m. ET Thursday, marking a 1.63% increase from the same time Wednesday, amid geopolitical relief triggered by former President Donald Trump's comments on delaying U.S. military action in the Israel-Iran conflict. Trump indicated a potential two-week hiatus before any decision, reducing immediate intervention odds on prediction market Polymarket from 70% to 40% for month-end action by midday ET. This shift bolstered risk assets, with the CoinDesk 20 index rising 1.3% to 3,034.29 and Ethereum gaining 1.85% to $2,554.74 over the same period. Broader markets reflected the improved sentiment, as oil prices fell 1.7% after a three-week rally, European equities advanced (FTSE up 0.44%, Euro Stoxx 50 up 0.80%), and U.S. equity futures edged higher. AJ Bell investment analyst Dan Coatsworth noted to Yahoo Finance that the delay keeps geopolitical risks alive for next week, while Glassnode reported subdued on-chain activity, signaling institutional dominance with large, infrequent transactions. Despite the stability, CryptoQuant warned of demand erosion risks, citing a 60% drop in ETF flows since April.

Trading Implications

The temporary geopolitical reprieve masks underlying vulnerabilities for Bitcoin, with CryptoQuant analysts projecting a potential drop to $92,000 if demand fails to recover. Key indicators highlight bearish pressures: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows have declined 60% since April, per Farside Investors data, with zero net flows recorded on Thursday; whale accumulation has halved; and short-term holders offloaded approximately 800,000 BTC since late May. This weakening demand could expose BTC to sharp corrections, particularly if macroeconomic uncertainties from upcoming events like U.S. PMI data on June 23 exacerbate risk aversion. Trading opportunities arise from monitoring ETF flow reversals—sustained outflows may trigger sell-offs toward the $100,000 support level. Conversely, institutional money flow shifts could benefit correlated assets, with crypto equities like Galaxy Digital Holdings showing pre-market gains. The divergence in altcoin performance, such as Bitcoin Cash's 6.59% surge to $482.00, offers pair-specific trades, though caution is advised given BNB's negative funding rates indicating short pressure.

Technical Indicators

Technically, Bitcoin reclaimed its monthly open price after testing the 50-day exponential moving average, but faces resistance at the 20-day EMA near $106,500, with a decisive close above $109,000 needed to invalidate bearish patterns. Derivatives data reveals open interest at $56.73 billion across top venues, below the June 11 peak of $65.95 billion, as per Velo metrics, with Binance leading at $24.5 billion. Bitcoin Cash saw the third-largest notional OI gain, adding $83.4 million in 24 hours according to Laevitas. Options positioning remains concentrated, with Deribit reporting a yearly high in ETH options open interest at 2.58 million contracts expiring June 27, and BTC skew clustered between $100,000-$110,000 strikes. Funding rates are positive for BTC and ETH (10.95% annualized on Bybit) but negative for BNB (-22.73%), reflecting altcoin weakness. Coinglass recorded $131.89 million in liquidations over 24 hours, 56% from shorts, with ETH leading at $32.2 million and liquidation clusters between $106,000-$108,000 indicating squeezed leverage. BTC dominance held steady at 65%, reinforcing its market anchor role.

Summary and Outlook

In summary, Bitcoin's near-term trajectory hinges on balancing geopolitical relief against structural demand concerns, with CryptoQuant's $92,000 warning underscoring downside risks if ETF flows and whale activity remain tepid. Key support lies at $100,000, while resistance at $109,000 offers a bullish breakout target. Traders should watch June 30 events like Optimism's $17.34 million token unlock and CME's potential spot-quoted futures launch for volatility catalysts. Macro data, including U.S. PMI on June 23, may influence cross-market correlations, with equities serving as sentiment indicators. Despite positive technical signals from the 50-day EMA hold, caution is warranted due to mixed derivatives metrics and weakening on-chain demand. A sustained close above $106,500 could signal short-term strength, but failure may validate bearish targets, making risk management paramount for leveraged positions.