Bitcoin (BTC) has demonstrated significant strength, pushing past the critical $110,000 mark for the first time in a month before facing a slight pullback. This price action unfolds against a complex macroeconomic backdrop, where bullish long-term signals are clashing with strong short-term economic data. As of the latest data, the BTCUSDT pair registered a 24-hour high of $110,493.51 before settling around $109,425. The market is currently digesting conflicting narratives from a weakening U.S. dollar, a surging tech sector, and a surprisingly robust U.S. jobs report that has tempered expectations for an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut.

Macro Catalysts: A Weaker Dollar and Surging Nvidia

A key tailwind for Bitcoin has been the persistent decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). The index, which measures the dollar's strength against a basket of major currencies, recently fell to 97.27, its lowest point since February 2022. A weaker dollar typically boosts the appeal of assets like Bitcoin, which are priced in USD, making them cheaper for foreign investors and enhancing their status as a hedge against currency debasement. Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, noted this development, stating that the DXY at its lowest since March 2022 has "very bullish implications for global money supply growth and bitcoin." This environment eases global financial conditions and encourages capital to flow into higher-risk assets.

Further bolstering the risk-on sentiment is the remarkable performance of Nvidia (NVDA), a key barometer for the AI and technology sectors. NVDA shares surged 4.33% to a record high of $154.30. The correlation between Bitcoin and Nvidia has become increasingly significant for traders. The 90-day correlation coefficient between the two assets stands at a strong 0.80, indicating that they have been moving in close concert since both bottomed out in late 2022. NVDA's rally, following a bullish "golden cross" on Nasdaq futures, suggests a sustained appetite for emerging technologies, a category where Bitcoin often finds itself. While BTC has been a primary beneficiary, other assets like Ethereum (ETH) have also seen impressive gains, with the ETHUSDT pair climbing nearly 4% to over $2,588.

Recession Cues vs. Hawkish Data

Contradictory signals are emerging from the bond market and consumer data. The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note, which is sensitive to Fed policy, dropped to 3.76%, while the 10-year yield fell to 4.27%. This movement, known as a bull steepening of the yield curve, is often a precursor to a recession. As wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter observed, if the 2-year yield breaks significantly lower, it could signal the Fed has "lost control." This sentiment was echoed by the Conference Board's latest data, which showed consumer confidence dropping sharply. The expectations index fell to 69, well below the 80 threshold that historically signals an impending recession. These factors had led traders, according to the CME FedWatch tool, to price in a growing probability of a July rate cut.

Jobs Report Jolts Markets, Reshuffles Fed Odds

However, the narrative shifted dramatically with the release of the U.S. June jobs report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls, smashing the forecast of 110,000. The unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%, beating expectations of 4.3%. The market reaction was swift and decisive. Bitcoin, which had just touched its monthly high above $110,000, immediately dipped to just under $109,000. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked nine basis points to 4.36%, and stock futures rose, signaling that investors now see less need for immediate monetary easing. The odds of a July rate cut evaporated, with the CME FedWatch tool showing the probability of the Fed holding rates steady soaring from 75% to 95% in the minutes after the report. For traders, this means the anticipated liquidity injection from the Fed is likely delayed, creating a short-term headwind for assets like BTC. The key support level to watch for Bitcoin is now the pre-report low around $108,116, while $110,500 remains formidable resistance.