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Bitcoin (BTC) Accumulator Strategy Outperforms DCA by 26%, Research Shows; MicroStrategy (MSTR) Soars on S&P 500 Speculation | Flash News Detail | Blockchain.News
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7/5/2025 12:02:00 PM

Bitcoin (BTC) Accumulator Strategy Outperforms DCA by 26%, Research Shows; MicroStrategy (MSTR) Soars on S&P 500 Speculation

Bitcoin (BTC) Accumulator Strategy Outperforms DCA by 26%, Research Shows; MicroStrategy (MSTR) Soars on S&P 500 Speculation

According to @QCompounding, new research from crypto options market maker OrBit Markets reveals that a Bitcoin (BTC) 'accumulator' strategy has significantly outperformed traditional dollar-cost averaging (DCA) since January 2023. The backtesting showed that three-month accumulators delivered 10% outperformance, while twelve-month accumulators outperformed DCA by 26%, making it a potentially superior method for corporate treasuries accumulating BTC. This strategy involves agreeing to buy BTC at a discounted price but carries the risk of forced purchases if the price drops below a certain strike. Separately, MicroStrategy's (MSTR) stock and its perpetual preferred shares (STRK, STRF) have rallied, with STRK gaining 15%. This surge is attributed to speculation that the company may be included in the S&P 500 index. According to analyst Jeff Walton, Bitcoin's high price has boosted MSTR's earnings to a level that meets the final requirement for inclusion, prompting what appears to be front-running by investors.

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Analysis

As corporate treasuries increasingly look to Bitcoin (BTC) for diversification and as a hedge against inflation, the methods for acquiring the digital asset are evolving beyond simple buy-and-hold tactics. While dollar-cost averaging (DCA) has been the go-to strategy for its simplicity and discipline, new research suggests more sophisticated structured products may offer superior returns, particularly in bullish market conditions. This shift towards complex financial instruments is mirrored in the equity markets, where Bitcoin proxy plays like MicroStrategy (MSTR) are seeing speculative activity tied to both the underlying asset's price and potential inclusion in major stock indices.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $108,175, showing relative stability with a minor 24-hour change. Despite the calm, the market for accumulation strategies is heating up. According to research from crypto options market maker OrBit Markets, a structured product known as an “accumulator” has significantly outperformed traditional DCA since the beginning of 2023. Pulkit Goyal, head of trading at OrBit Markets, highlighted that this strategy is a “natural fit for crypto treasury companies’ use case.” The backtesting results are compelling: a three-month BTC accumulator delivered a 10% outperformance over DCA, with six-month and twelve-month accumulators achieving even better results, outperforming by 13% and 26%, respectively. This resulted in an average acquisition cost of just $39,035 for the accumulator, compared to $43,329 for DCA over the tested period.

How Bitcoin Accumulators Enhance Corporate Strategy

An accumulator is a time-structured product where an investor commits to buying a set amount of an asset at a predetermined discounted price (the strike price) at regular intervals. The structure remains active for a set period unless the spot price hits a pre-agreed upper limit, known as the knock-out barrier, which terminates the contract. For instance, an investor might agree to buy $1,000 of BTC weekly at a strike of $94,500 when the spot is $105,000, with a knock-out at $115,000. This allows corporates to acquire BTC at a discount. However, the strategy carries a significant risk, earning it the nickname “I kill you later” in traditional finance. If the spot price falls below the strike price, the investor is obligated to double their purchase at that same, now-unfavorable, strike price. This makes the strategy unsuitable for short-term speculators but ideal for long-term accumulators with a bullish conviction who seek to optimize their entry points.

MicroStrategy (MSTR) and the S&P 500 Speculation

The most prominent corporate Bitcoin accumulator, MicroStrategy (MSTR), is at the center of a different kind of market speculation. The company's stock and its perpetual preferred shares appear to be front-running a potential inclusion in the prestigious S&P 500 index. According to analyst Jeff Walton, Bitcoin’s strong close for the quarter, ending June at $107,750, could translate into a positive earnings impact of approximately $11 billion for MicroStrategy. This would boost its earnings per share to about $39.50, clearing the final profitability hurdle for S&P 500 eligibility. Anticipation of this event, which would open the door to massive institutional investment, has fueled significant gains. MSTR stock recently rose 5% to over $400. More impressively, its perpetual preferred shares surged, with STRK climbing 15% and STRF adding 7.5%. These preferred shares also offer attractive yields, such as STRK's 6.6% and STRF's 8.8%, providing an additional incentive for investors in the current interest rate environment.

This dynamic illustrates the deepening integration of crypto-assets with traditional financial markets. The performance of MSTR and its related securities is now a complex interplay between Bitcoin's price, which recently saw a 24-hour high of $108,341 on the BTC/USDT pair, and traditional market catalysts like index inclusion. The 42% return of STRK since its February launch has dwarfed both Bitcoin’s 11% gain and the S&P 500’s 2% rise over the same period, highlighting the powerful leveraged effect and speculative premium attached to these instruments. As the market awaits the official S&P 500 announcement, traders are closely watching both BTC price action and MSTR-related securities for clues, representing a new frontier of cross-market trading opportunities and risks. The broader altcoin market shows mixed signals, with assets like AVAX showing strength against BTC with a 6.7% gain, while ETH trades cautiously at around $2,513.

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