The cryptocurrency market is buzzing with renewed optimism as prominent financial institutions forecast a significant rally for Bitcoin (BTC) in the second half of the year, challenging historical price patterns. According to an analysis by Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, the traditional post-halving price slump is unlikely to materialize this cycle. Kendrick boldly declared that "the bitcoin halving cycle is dead," citing powerful new structural supports that are reshaping market dynamics. The investment bank has reiterated its ambitious year-end price target of $200,000 for BTC, with an interim target of $135,000 projected by the end of the third quarter. This bullish sentiment is echoed in a separate report from Coinbase Research, which points to a confluence of favorable macroeconomic trends and increasing regulatory clarity as key drivers for a constructive market outlook.

Bitcoin (BTC) Eyes $200K as Institutional and Macro Winds Align

The primary engine behind this forecast is the relentless and accelerating institutional adoption of Bitcoin. Standard Chartered highlighted that strong inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) combined with renewed corporate treasury demand accounted for a staggering 245,000 BTC being absorbed in the second quarter alone. This trend is expected to gather even more steam. Further bolstering this argument, Coinbase Research noted a significant 2024 accounting rule change that now allows for "mark-to-market" accounting of digital assets. This change simplifies the process for public companies to add crypto to their balance sheets, effectively expanding the sources of demand for BTC. This institutional embrace provides a strong underlying bid for Bitcoin, creating a floor price that is less susceptible to the speculative whims that dominated previous cycles.

Macroeconomic Tailwinds and Market Technicals

Beyond institutional flows, the macroeconomic landscape is becoming increasingly favorable for risk assets like Bitcoin. After a shaky start to the year, recent data points to strengthening U.S. economic growth, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker surging to 3.8% QoQ in early June. This, coupled with widespread expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, has significantly eased recession fears and boosted investor sentiment. As Coinbase Research points out, these factors create a supportive environment for Bitcoin's price appreciation. From a technical trading perspective, the BTCUSDT pair reflects this underlying strength, despite a recent 1.83% pullback. The price recently tested a high of $109,953 before consolidating around the $107,785 level, establishing a new potential support zone. This price action suggests a period of healthy accumulation before a potential move towards the Q3 target of $135,000.

Altcoin Divergence and Regulatory Clarity

While the outlook for Bitcoin is overwhelmingly positive, the picture for altcoins is more nuanced. The Coinbase report suggests that altcoins may lag unless they are driven by specific catalysts, such as individual ETF approvals or major protocol upgrades. This divergence is evident in the current market data. The ETHBTC pair has seen a 1.94% decline, trading at 0.02326, while the SOLBTC pair is down 2.34% to 0.00136460. This indicates that capital is currently rotating towards Bitcoin's relative safety and upside potential. However, there are exceptions, as seen with AVAXBTC, which has rallied an impressive 6.73% to 0.00022670, demonstrating that project-specific strength can still yield significant returns for discerning traders. The broader market is also keenly watching regulatory developments. The U.S. Senate's passage of the GENIUS Act for stablecoins and the potential for the CLARITY Act to define regulatory roles for the SEC and CFTC are seen as major long-term positives. With rulings on over 80 crypto ETF applications expected by October, the coming months could provide the regulatory clarity needed to unlock the next wave of institutional investment across the entire digital asset space, though Bitcoin is poised to be the primary beneficiary.