Bitcoin Nears $107K as Ceasefire and Fed Policy Shape Market Sentiment

Bitcoin surged toward the $107,000 mark on Wednesday, climbing 1.7% over the past 24 hours to reach $106,693.69 as of 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, according to Francisco Rodrigues. This rally coincided with a broader market uplift, driven by a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Iran and Israel that eased fears of an oil supply crunch and spurred risk-on sentiment. The CoinDesk 20 index gained 1%, reflecting increased investor confidence. However, Susannah Streeter, head of money markets at Hargreaves Lansdown, cautioned that optimism is fragile, citing leaked U.S. intelligence reports questioning the ceasefire's durability and potential for renewed military action. This geopolitical relief, while temporary, underscores how external shocks can rapidly influence crypto prices, with Bitcoin's dominance rising to 65.52%.

Fed Chair Powell's Testimony and Rate Cut Implications

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony before House lawmakers on Tuesday added another layer to the market dynamics, emphasizing patience on interest rate cuts due to persistent inflation and tariff risks. Bitunix analysts highlighted that this "wait-and-see" approach creates short-term uncertainty but supports risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Concurrently, U.S. consumer-confidence data softened, pulling two-year Treasury yields down to a six-week low of 3.78% and boosting the probability of a July rate cut to approximately 20%, per the CME FedWatch tool, up from 13% a week earlier. Powell's upcoming Senate testimony today is critical, as traders monitor for any shifts in tone amid political pressure, which could sway crypto volatility and institutional flows into ETFs.

Derivatives and Technical Signals for Trading Strategy

Options data indicates a neutral to mildly bullish stance ahead of the June 27 expiry, with traders selling straddles and short puts near $105,000 and $100,000, as noted by Jake O, an OTC trader at Wintermute. This suggests expectations of range-bound price action between $100,000 and $105,000 in the short term. However, call option buying targeting $108,000 and $112,000 for July and September points to underlying bullish sentiment. Technical analysis reveals strong support at $100,000 and resistance at $108,000, with Bitcoin's hashprice at $54 and annualized funding rates on Binance at 5.26%. Altcoins like Solana (SOL) showed strength, rising 3.37% to $146.69 against USDT, while Ethereum (ETH) faced pressure, dipping 0.46% to $2,426.44. ETF inflows remain robust, with spot BTC ETFs recording daily net flows of $588.6 million, accumulating $47.58 billion in total holdings.

Upcoming Catalysts and Market Risks

Traders should watch key events such as the Core (CORE) hard fork activation on June 25 and the ZIGChain (ZIG) mainnet launch, which could spur volatility in related tokens. The CME Group's planned introduction of spot-quoted futures on June 30 may enhance liquidity for BTC and ETH. Macroeconomic data, including May durable goods orders and Q1 GDP figures on June 26, will provide further cues. Risks include the potential for the ceasefire to unravel, as highlighted by Streeter, and token unlocks like Optimism (OP) releasing $17.13 million worth of tokens on June 30, which could increase selling pressure. Despite a $242 million drop in high-risk DeFi loans reducing liquidation risks, investors should stay agile, using support levels for entry points and resistance for profit-taking in this uncertain environment.