Bitcoin and Ethereum Price Drop: Key Trading Signals from ETF Outflows and Futures Basis - 30/05/2025 Market Update

According to Farside Investors (@FarsideUK), Bitcoin traded at $106,095, down 1.52%, with March 2026 Deribit Bitcoin Futures at $112,967, also down 1.38%. The annualised basis rate stands at 7.68%, showing a slight increase of 0.26%, which indicates moderate bullish sentiment among futures traders. However, a significant net outflow of $346.8 million from Bitcoin ETFs signals institutional selling pressure, likely contributing to the price decline. Ethereum also fell 3.05% to $2,641. These ETF outflows and futures basis levels suggest cautious market positioning and potential for continued volatility, which traders should monitor closely for short-term opportunities. (Source: Farside Investors @FarsideUK, May 30, 2025)
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The trading implications of these movements are significant for both retail and institutional players. Bitcoin’s 1.52% drop aligns with a broader risk-off sentiment in equities, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell 0.5% by 11:30 AM UTC on May 30, 2025. This correlation suggests that crypto markets are reacting to macroeconomic signals, possibly tied to inflation fears or interest rate expectations. Ethereum’s steeper 3.05% decline could be exacerbated by on-chain metrics showing reduced activity, with daily active addresses dropping 8% to 412,000 as of May 29, 2025, 23:59 UTC, per blockchain analytics. Trading volumes for the BTC/USDT pair on Binance hit $1.2 billion in the last 24 hours (as of 12:00 PM UTC, May 30, 2025), a 15% decrease from the prior day, indicating waning momentum. Meanwhile, the ETH/BTC pair saw a 2.1% drop to 0.0249, reflecting Ethereum’s underperformance against Bitcoin. For traders, this opens opportunities in short-term bearish strategies, such as put options on Ethereum with a strike price near $2,600 expiring in early June 2025. Additionally, the significant Bitcoin ETF outflow of $346.8 million on May 29, 2025, could pressure spot prices further if institutional selling continues, making it critical to watch ETF flow data in the coming days.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action shows a break below the 50-day moving average of $107,500 as of 10:00 AM UTC on May 30, 2025, a bearish signal for short-term traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin sits at 42 on the daily chart, nearing oversold territory but not yet signaling a reversal. Ethereum’s RSI is lower at 38, suggesting stronger selling pressure as of the same timestamp. On-chain data reveals Bitcoin’s exchange netflow turned positive with a +12,500 BTC inflow to exchanges on May 29, 2025, 23:59 UTC, hinting at potential selling pressure. Trading volume for Bitcoin across major exchanges like Coinbase and Kraken averaged $800 million per hour between 8:00 AM and 12:00 PM UTC on May 30, 2025, down 10% from the previous day. In terms of stock-crypto correlation, the S&P 500’s 0.3% decline mirrors Bitcoin’s trajectory, with a 30-day correlation coefficient of 0.68 as of recent market analyses. This tight relationship suggests that any further downturn in equities could exacerbate crypto losses. Institutional money flows also appear to be shifting, as the $346.8 million Bitcoin ETF outflow on May 29, 2025, contrasts with inflows into gold ETFs, per market reports. Crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw a 1.8% drop to $1,450 by 11:00 AM UTC on May 30, 2025, reflecting the broader risk-off mood. Traders should remain cautious, focusing on key support levels for Bitcoin at $104,000 and Ethereum at $2,550, while watching stock market indices for directional cues.
In summary, the interplay between stock and crypto markets remains a critical factor for trading decisions. With institutional outflows and declining volumes, the risk of further downside persists, but oversold technical indicators could present buying opportunities for contrarian traders. Monitoring cross-market correlations and ETF flows will be essential in navigating this volatile landscape over the next few days.
Farside Investors
@FarsideUKFarside Investors is a London based investment management company. Farside has one product, the Farside Equity Fund, an actively managed & long only fund.