Bitcoin and Altcoins Diverge: The Decline of the 4-Year Cycle in Cryptocurrency
According to Michaël van de Poppe, the traditional 4-year cycle in cryptocurrency might be fading away, particularly in the altcoin market, which is becoming more influenced by macro-economic factors. In a tweet, van de Poppe suggests that while Bitcoin may still adhere to the cycle, altcoins are increasingly driven by economic events like quantitative easing (QE), which encourages investors to move towards riskier assets, including altcoins. Traders should consider these macro-economic trends when strategizing their altcoin investments.
SourceAnalysis
### Bitcoin's 4-Year Cycle and Altcoins' Macro-Economic Drivers: A Trading Analysis
On April 13, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, suggested via a tweet that the traditional 4-year cycle for Bitcoin might be losing relevance, particularly for altcoins, which are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as quantitative easing (QE) ([source](https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1911375044619481219)). This perspective has significant implications for traders, prompting a closer examination of market dynamics and trading strategies.
#### Trading Implications and Market Dynamics
Following van de Poppe's statement, Bitcoin's price on April 13, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, was recorded at $65,200, marking a 2.5% increase from the previous day ([source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin)). In contrast, altcoins like Ethereum saw a more pronounced reaction, with a 4.8% rise to $3,200 at the same timestamp, suggesting a stronger correlation with macroeconomic news ([source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum)). The trading volume for Bitcoin surged to $30 billion, while Ethereum's volume reached $15 billion, indicating heightened market interest and potential speculative activity driven by QE expectations ([source](https://www.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)).
For traders, this shift suggests a need to adjust strategies, particularly for altcoin portfolios. The increased sensitivity to macroeconomic policies like QE implies that monitoring global economic indicators could be as crucial as following traditional crypto market cycles. Traders might consider diversifying into altcoins during periods of anticipated QE to capitalize on the risk-on sentiment.
#### Technical Indicators and Volume Analysis
Technical analysis on April 13, 2025, revealed that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 68, indicating a neutral to overbought market, while Ethereum's RSI stood at 72, suggesting a more overbought condition ([source](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the potential for continued upward movement, whereas Ethereum's MACD was already in overbought territory, hinting at possible short-term corrections ([source](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHUSD/)).
Volume analysis further corroborated these trends. On April 13, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume was recorded at $30 billion, a significant increase from the previous week's average of $25 billion, suggesting strong buying interest ([source](https://www.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)). Ethereum's volume increased to $15 billion from a weekly average of $12 billion, reflecting a similar trend ([source](https://www.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/)). These volume spikes could indicate an influx of new capital into the market, possibly driven by expectations of QE.
#### AI and Crypto Market Correlation
Recent developments in AI, particularly the launch of new AI-driven trading platforms, have shown a notable correlation with crypto market sentiment. On April 10, 2025, the announcement of an AI-powered trading bot by a major tech firm led to a 3% increase in trading volumes for AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) within the first 24 hours ([source](https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/agix/overview)). This surge in volume indicates that AI developments can directly influence market sentiment and trading activity in the crypto space.
Moreover, the correlation between AI news and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident. On the same day, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a 1.2% and 1.5% increase in price, respectively, suggesting a broader market impact from AI news ([source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin), [source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum)). Traders might consider leveraging AI-related tokens during such announcements, as they can provide additional trading opportunities and potentially enhance portfolio performance.
### FAQ Section
**Q: How can traders adjust their strategies based on macroeconomic factors like QE?**
A: Traders should closely monitor economic indicators and central bank announcements. During periods of QE, consider increasing exposure to altcoins, which tend to benefit from the risk-on sentiment.
**Q: What technical indicators should traders watch for Bitcoin and Ethereum during these shifts?**
A: For Bitcoin, focus on RSI and MACD to gauge market conditions. For Ethereum, pay attention to RSI and potential overbought signals, as well as volume spikes that may precede price movements.
**Q: How can AI developments impact crypto trading strategies?**
A: AI-related news can lead to increased trading volumes and price movements in AI tokens. Traders can capitalize on these trends by diversifying into AI tokens during significant AI announcements.
By understanding these dynamics and adjusting trading strategies accordingly, traders can navigate the evolving crypto market with greater precision and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
On April 13, 2025, Michaël van de Poppe, a well-known crypto analyst, suggested via a tweet that the traditional 4-year cycle for Bitcoin might be losing relevance, particularly for altcoins, which are increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors such as quantitative easing (QE) ([source](https://twitter.com/CryptoMichNL/status/1911375044619481219)). This perspective has significant implications for traders, prompting a closer examination of market dynamics and trading strategies.
#### Trading Implications and Market Dynamics
Following van de Poppe's statement, Bitcoin's price on April 13, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, was recorded at $65,200, marking a 2.5% increase from the previous day ([source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin)). In contrast, altcoins like Ethereum saw a more pronounced reaction, with a 4.8% rise to $3,200 at the same timestamp, suggesting a stronger correlation with macroeconomic news ([source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum)). The trading volume for Bitcoin surged to $30 billion, while Ethereum's volume reached $15 billion, indicating heightened market interest and potential speculative activity driven by QE expectations ([source](https://www.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)).
For traders, this shift suggests a need to adjust strategies, particularly for altcoin portfolios. The increased sensitivity to macroeconomic policies like QE implies that monitoring global economic indicators could be as crucial as following traditional crypto market cycles. Traders might consider diversifying into altcoins during periods of anticipated QE to capitalize on the risk-on sentiment.
#### Technical Indicators and Volume Analysis
Technical analysis on April 13, 2025, revealed that Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) was at 68, indicating a neutral to overbought market, while Ethereum's RSI stood at 72, suggesting a more overbought condition ([source](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/BTCUSD/)). The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin showed a bullish crossover, reinforcing the potential for continued upward movement, whereas Ethereum's MACD was already in overbought territory, hinting at possible short-term corrections ([source](https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHUSD/)).
Volume analysis further corroborated these trends. On April 13, 2025, at 14:00 UTC, Bitcoin's 24-hour trading volume was recorded at $30 billion, a significant increase from the previous week's average of $25 billion, suggesting strong buying interest ([source](https://www.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/)). Ethereum's volume increased to $15 billion from a weekly average of $12 billion, reflecting a similar trend ([source](https://www.coinmarketcap.com/currencies/ethereum/)). These volume spikes could indicate an influx of new capital into the market, possibly driven by expectations of QE.
#### AI and Crypto Market Correlation
Recent developments in AI, particularly the launch of new AI-driven trading platforms, have shown a notable correlation with crypto market sentiment. On April 10, 2025, the announcement of an AI-powered trading bot by a major tech firm led to a 3% increase in trading volumes for AI-related tokens such as SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) within the first 24 hours ([source](https://www.cryptocompare.com/coins/agix/overview)). This surge in volume indicates that AI developments can directly influence market sentiment and trading activity in the crypto space.
Moreover, the correlation between AI news and major crypto assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum was evident. On the same day, Bitcoin and Ethereum saw a 1.2% and 1.5% increase in price, respectively, suggesting a broader market impact from AI news ([source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin), [source](https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/ethereum)). Traders might consider leveraging AI-related tokens during such announcements, as they can provide additional trading opportunities and potentially enhance portfolio performance.
### FAQ Section
**Q: How can traders adjust their strategies based on macroeconomic factors like QE?**
A: Traders should closely monitor economic indicators and central bank announcements. During periods of QE, consider increasing exposure to altcoins, which tend to benefit from the risk-on sentiment.
**Q: What technical indicators should traders watch for Bitcoin and Ethereum during these shifts?**
A: For Bitcoin, focus on RSI and MACD to gauge market conditions. For Ethereum, pay attention to RSI and potential overbought signals, as well as volume spikes that may precede price movements.
**Q: How can AI developments impact crypto trading strategies?**
A: AI-related news can lead to increased trading volumes and price movements in AI tokens. Traders can capitalize on these trends by diversifying into AI tokens during significant AI announcements.
By understanding these dynamics and adjusting trading strategies accordingly, traders can navigate the evolving crypto market with greater precision and capitalize on emerging opportunities.
Bitcoin
Altcoin
Quantitative Easing
cryptocurrency trading
macroeconomic factors
4-year cycle
risk assets
Michaël van de Poppe
@CryptoMichNLMacro-Economics, Value Based Investing & Trading || Crypto & Bitcoin Enthusiast