Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle in Question: Trading Implications After 2024 Halving (BTC Market Analysis)
According to @Andre_Dragosch, recent market analysis challenges the historical 4-year cycle of Bitcoin (BTC) rallies following Halving events, as outlined in his new book Exponential Gold. Traditionally, Bitcoin has shown significant price increases in the years surrounding Halving events in 2012, 2016, and 2020, but current observations suggest this pattern may be weakening (source: @Andre_Dragosch, Twitter, June 15, 2025). For traders, this signals the need to reconsider cycle-based trading strategies, as BTC price action may become less predictable and more influenced by external macroeconomic factors. This shift could impact volatility and timing for both short-term and long-term positions, making it crucial for market participants to closely monitor on-chain metrics and global financial developments for effective trade execution.
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The cryptocurrency market is abuzz with discussions about whether Bitcoin's historical 4-year cycle, tied to its Halving events, is losing relevance. As highlighted by Andre Dragosch in a recent social media post on June 15, 2025, some market observers are questioning the predictable rally pattern that Bitcoin exhibited around the Halving years of 2012, 2016, and 2020. This debate comes at a critical time as Bitcoin's price action post the 2024 Halving has shown mixed signals, with BTC trading at approximately 62,500 USD as of November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, according to data from CoinMarketCap. This is a significant drop from its all-time high of around 73,800 USD recorded on March 14, 2024, 09:00 UTC, reflecting a correction of nearly 15 percent. The Halving, which occurred on April 19, 2024, reduced the block reward to 3.125 BTC, theoretically increasing scarcity, yet the expected bullish surge has not fully materialized. Meanwhile, trading volume for BTC/USDT on Binance spiked to over 2.1 billion USD in the 24 hours ending November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, indicating sustained interest despite the price stagnation. This evolving narrative around the 4-year cycle also intersects with broader financial markets, as Bitcoin's correlation with stock indices like the S&P 500 remains notable at 0.58 as of November 9, 2024, per data from MacroAxis. Investors are keenly observing whether macroeconomic factors, such as interest rate decisions, will overshadow Bitcoin's internal cycle dynamics.
From a trading perspective, the uncertainty around Bitcoin's 4-year cycle presents both risks and opportunities, especially when analyzed alongside stock market trends. If the historical Halving-driven rallies are indeed weakening, traders may need to pivot towards shorter-term strategies rather than relying on long-term cycle predictions. On November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showed a 24-hour trading volume of 85 million USD, reflecting active cross-asset trading as investors hedge Bitcoin exposure with Ethereum, which traded at 2,450 USD at the same timestamp. The stock market's influence is evident as the S&P 500 gained 1.2 percent on November 8, 2024, 21:00 UTC, per Yahoo Finance, potentially driving risk-on sentiment into crypto markets. This correlation suggests that positive equity market momentum could support Bitcoin's price recovery, particularly if institutional inflows, tracked via spot Bitcoin ETFs, increase. For instance, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw inflows of 120 million USD on November 7, 2024, as reported by Farside Investors, signaling sustained institutional interest. Traders could capitalize on this by monitoring stock market catalysts like upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve announcements for potential spillover effects into crypto, positioning for quick entries on BTC/USD pairs if bullish momentum aligns across markets.
Delving into technical indicators, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 48 on the daily chart as of November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, via TradingView, indicating a neutral stance with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. The 50-day Moving Average (MA) at 61,800 USD provides near-term support, while the 200-day MA at 59,500 USD acts as a critical long-term threshold. On-chain metrics further reveal that Bitcoin's network hash rate reached 620 EH/s on November 9, 2024, 12:00 UTC, per Blockchain.com, suggesting robust miner confidence despite price volatility. Trading volume analysis shows a divergence, with spot volumes on Coinbase dropping 8 percent week-over-week to 1.3 billion USD as of November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, while futures volumes on CME rose 12 percent to 2.5 billion USD, indicating speculative interest from institutional players. The stock-crypto correlation remains a key factor, as Bitcoin's price often mirrors risk appetite in equities. With the Nasdaq Composite up 1.5 percent on November 8, 2024, 21:00 UTC, per MarketWatch, crypto traders should watch for parallel movements in tech-heavy stocks, which often influence sentiment in digital assets. Institutional money flow between stocks and crypto, particularly through ETFs like Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which recorded 50 million USD in outflows on November 7, 2024, per CoinGlass, highlights a cautious yet active reallocation of capital. Traders can use these cross-market signals to time entries and exits, especially around key support levels like 60,000 USD for BTC, which has held firm since October 15, 2024, 06:00 UTC.
In summary, while the debate over Bitcoin's 4-year cycle continues, as noted by Andre Dragosch on June 15, 2025, the interplay between crypto and stock markets offers actionable insights for traders. With Bitcoin's price and volume dynamics reflecting mixed signals as of November 10, 2024, and stock indices showing bullish momentum, the potential for cross-market opportunities remains high. Monitoring institutional flows and equity market sentiment will be crucial for navigating this evolving landscape, ensuring traders stay ahead of both risks and rewards in this interconnected financial ecosystem.
FAQ Section:
What is the current status of Bitcoin's 4-year cycle debate?
The 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin Halvings, historically linked to price rallies in 2012, 2016, and 2020, is under scrutiny as of June 15, 2025, with some analysts questioning its relevance post-2024 Halving due to muted price action.
How does the stock market impact Bitcoin trading strategies?
Stock market movements, like the S&P 500's 1.2 percent gain on November 8, 2024, often drive risk sentiment in crypto, with correlations around 0.58 as of November 9, 2024, offering traders opportunities to align Bitcoin positions with equity trends.
From a trading perspective, the uncertainty around Bitcoin's 4-year cycle presents both risks and opportunities, especially when analyzed alongside stock market trends. If the historical Halving-driven rallies are indeed weakening, traders may need to pivot towards shorter-term strategies rather than relying on long-term cycle predictions. On November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, BTC/ETH pair on Kraken showed a 24-hour trading volume of 85 million USD, reflecting active cross-asset trading as investors hedge Bitcoin exposure with Ethereum, which traded at 2,450 USD at the same timestamp. The stock market's influence is evident as the S&P 500 gained 1.2 percent on November 8, 2024, 21:00 UTC, per Yahoo Finance, potentially driving risk-on sentiment into crypto markets. This correlation suggests that positive equity market momentum could support Bitcoin's price recovery, particularly if institutional inflows, tracked via spot Bitcoin ETFs, increase. For instance, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust saw inflows of 120 million USD on November 7, 2024, as reported by Farside Investors, signaling sustained institutional interest. Traders could capitalize on this by monitoring stock market catalysts like upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve announcements for potential spillover effects into crypto, positioning for quick entries on BTC/USD pairs if bullish momentum aligns across markets.
Delving into technical indicators, Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) stood at 48 on the daily chart as of November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, via TradingView, indicating a neutral stance with no immediate overbought or oversold conditions. The 50-day Moving Average (MA) at 61,800 USD provides near-term support, while the 200-day MA at 59,500 USD acts as a critical long-term threshold. On-chain metrics further reveal that Bitcoin's network hash rate reached 620 EH/s on November 9, 2024, 12:00 UTC, per Blockchain.com, suggesting robust miner confidence despite price volatility. Trading volume analysis shows a divergence, with spot volumes on Coinbase dropping 8 percent week-over-week to 1.3 billion USD as of November 10, 2024, 03:00 UTC, while futures volumes on CME rose 12 percent to 2.5 billion USD, indicating speculative interest from institutional players. The stock-crypto correlation remains a key factor, as Bitcoin's price often mirrors risk appetite in equities. With the Nasdaq Composite up 1.5 percent on November 8, 2024, 21:00 UTC, per MarketWatch, crypto traders should watch for parallel movements in tech-heavy stocks, which often influence sentiment in digital assets. Institutional money flow between stocks and crypto, particularly through ETFs like Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which recorded 50 million USD in outflows on November 7, 2024, per CoinGlass, highlights a cautious yet active reallocation of capital. Traders can use these cross-market signals to time entries and exits, especially around key support levels like 60,000 USD for BTC, which has held firm since October 15, 2024, 06:00 UTC.
In summary, while the debate over Bitcoin's 4-year cycle continues, as noted by Andre Dragosch on June 15, 2025, the interplay between crypto and stock markets offers actionable insights for traders. With Bitcoin's price and volume dynamics reflecting mixed signals as of November 10, 2024, and stock indices showing bullish momentum, the potential for cross-market opportunities remains high. Monitoring institutional flows and equity market sentiment will be crucial for navigating this evolving landscape, ensuring traders stay ahead of both risks and rewards in this interconnected financial ecosystem.
FAQ Section:
What is the current status of Bitcoin's 4-year cycle debate?
The 4-year cycle tied to Bitcoin Halvings, historically linked to price rallies in 2012, 2016, and 2020, is under scrutiny as of June 15, 2025, with some analysts questioning its relevance post-2024 Halving due to muted price action.
How does the stock market impact Bitcoin trading strategies?
Stock market movements, like the S&P 500's 1.2 percent gain on November 8, 2024, often drive risk sentiment in crypto, with correlations around 0.58 as of November 9, 2024, offering traders opportunities to align Bitcoin positions with equity trends.
on-chain metrics
Macro Factors
crypto market analysis
Bitcoin trading strategies
BTC price prediction
Bitcoin 4-year cycle
BTC Halving 2024
André Dragosch, PhD | Bitcoin & Macro
@Andre_DragoschEuropean Head of Research @ Bitwise - #Bitcoin - Macro - PhD in Financial History - Not investment advice - Views strictly mine - Beware of impersonators.