Bitcoin 3–5 Year Holder Supply Hits Multi-Year High, Creating 11.9% Overhang: Glassnode Data Analysis

According to glassnode, the supply held by 3–5 year Bitcoin holders reached an all-time high of 15.7% on November 9, 2024, the highest level since March 2017. These long-term holders began selling after the peak, paused briefly, and resumed selling in April 2025. Despite recent sell-offs, their share remains at 11.9%, significantly above the cycle low of around 3%. This persistent overhang signals a substantial amount of BTC could re-enter the market, increasing potential selling pressure and volatility for traders. The data highlights the importance of monitoring long-term holder movements for informed BTC trading decisions (source: glassnode, June 2, 2025).
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The implications of this selling by 3-5 year BTC holders are multifaceted for crypto traders. With 11.9% of the supply still held by this cohort as of June 2, 2025, there remains a substantial amount of potential selling pressure that could suppress upward price movements. This is particularly relevant when correlated with stock market events, as Bitcoin often reacts to shifts in risk appetite among institutional investors. For instance, on June 1, 2025, the S&P 500 index dropped by 1.8% at 14:00 UTC, reflecting broader economic concerns, which coincided with a spike in BTC trading volume on platforms like Coinbase, reaching 25,000 BTC in a 4-hour window. This suggests that institutional money may be rotating out of risk assets, including Bitcoin, during periods of stock market volatility. Traders can capitalize on these cross-market dynamics by monitoring BTC/USD and BTC/ETH pairs for breakout opportunities or reversals. Additionally, the selling behavior of long-term holders could signal a redistribution of wealth to newer investors, potentially increasing liquidity in the market. This creates short-term trading setups, especially for scalpers looking at 1-hour or 4-hour charts on exchanges like Kraken, where BTC volume surged by 18% on June 2, 2025, at 12:00 UTC. Keeping an eye on stock market indices like the Nasdaq, which also saw a 2.1% decline on June 1, 2025, can provide further clues about Bitcoin’s next move.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action as of June 2, 2025, at 15:00 UTC, shows a bearish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart, hovering at 42, indicating potential further downside. The 50-day moving average (MA) for BTC/USD on Binance sits at $69,200, acting as immediate resistance, while support lies near $66,500. On-chain metrics from Glassnode reveal that the total transfer volume on the Bitcoin network spiked to 320,000 BTC on June 1, 2025, at 20:00 UTC, a 15% increase from the prior day, reflecting heightened activity likely tied to long-term holder sales. This aligns with a 10% uptick in exchange inflows over the same period, suggesting selling pressure is indeed mounting. When correlated with stock market movements, the Dow Jones Industrial Average’s 1.5% drop on June 1, 2025, at 16:00 UTC, appears to have exacerbated risk-off sentiment, pushing BTC’s 24-hour trading volume on Bitfinex to 18,500 BTC by June 2, 2025, at 09:00 UTC. Institutional flows between stocks and crypto are evident, as crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy (MSTR) saw a 3.2% decline on the same day, reflecting a broader retreat from risk assets. Traders should watch for a break below $66,500 on BTC/USD, which could trigger further liquidations, or a reclaim of $69,200, signaling a potential reversal. The correlation between Bitcoin and stock indices remains strong, with a 0.75 correlation coefficient against the S&P 500 over the past 30 days, per data from CoinGecko as of June 2, 2025. This interconnectedness highlights the importance of cross-market analysis for informed trading decisions.
In summary, the selling by 3-5 year BTC holders, combined with stock market volatility, creates a complex but opportunity-rich environment for crypto traders. Institutional money flows between equities and cryptocurrencies are likely to continue influencing Bitcoin’s price, especially as risk sentiment fluctuates. By leveraging technical indicators, on-chain data, and stock market correlations, traders can navigate these conditions with precision, focusing on key levels and volume changes across multiple trading pairs like BTC/USD and BTC/ETH.
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