According to BitMEX Research, in disputes over Bitcoin's consensus rules, the most intolerant participants are likely to prevail, while in relay policy conflicts, the most tolerant approach tends to win (source: BitMEX Research, Twitter, May 12, 2025). For traders, this insight indicates that hardline stances on core protocol changes could drive significant volatility and potential chain splits, impacting Bitcoin price movements and liquidity. Conversely, flexible relay policies may enhance network robustness, fostering stability in transaction processing and potentially reducing short-term trading risks. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for market participants assessing risks around contentious upgrades and forks.

According to @adam3us, any willingness to make contentious changes to non-consensus rules in the Bitcoin network without humility could lead to similar attempts on core consensus rules, increasing the risk of a chain split. For traders, this scenario may result in the creation of two separate coins and severe price volatility, as the value of the new forked coin could drop to zero. Monitoring developer discussions and governance proposals is critical for risk management and anticipating sudden market disruptions (source: @adam3us on Twitter).