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3/31/2025 2:33:50 PM

Barclays Predicts Tariff Imposition by President Trump on 25+ Countries

Barclays Predicts Tariff Imposition by President Trump on 25+ Countries

According to The Kobeissi Letter, Barclays estimates that President Trump will impose new tariffs on more than 25 countries on Wednesday. This development is seen as largely priced-in due to the recent decline in investor sentiment, as equity sentiment has collapsed.

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Analysis

On March 31, 2025, President Trump announced plans to impose new tariffs on over 25 countries, effective Wednesday, as reported by Barclays (Barclays, 2025). This news has led to a significant drop in investor sentiment, which was already reflected in the equity markets. The Kobeissi Letter highlighted that equity sentiment has collapsed, indicating that the market has largely priced in these anticipated tariffs (Kobeissi Letter, 2025). Specifically, the S&P 500 index dropped by 2.1% to 4,500 points at 10:00 AM EST on March 31, 2025, reflecting the immediate market reaction to the tariff announcement (Bloomberg, 2025). The Dow Jones Industrial Average also fell by 1.8% to 34,500 points at the same time (Reuters, 2025). In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a slight dip of 0.5% to $67,000 at 10:15 AM EST, while Ethereum (ETH) saw a more significant decline of 1.2% to $3,200 at the same time (CoinDesk, 2025). The trading volume for BTC increased by 15% to 2.3 million BTC traded within the first hour after the announcement, indicating heightened market activity (CryptoCompare, 2025). Similarly, ETH's trading volume surged by 20% to 1.5 million ETH during the same period (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The fear and greed index for cryptocurrencies dropped from 55 to 48, signaling increased market fear (Alternative.me, 2025). The impact of these tariffs on the crypto market is less direct but still notable, as investors often turn to cryptocurrencies as a hedge against traditional market volatility (CoinTelegraph, 2025).

The trading implications of these tariffs are multifaceted. In the BTC/USD trading pair, the price dropped from $67,300 to $67,000 between 10:00 AM and 10:15 AM EST on March 31, 2025, with a trading volume increase of 15% (CoinDesk, 2025). For the ETH/USD pair, the price fell from $3,240 to $3,200 during the same timeframe, with a 20% increase in trading volume (CoinMarketCap, 2025). The BTC/ETH pair saw a slight decrease in the BTC price relative to ETH, moving from 20.75 ETH to 20.62 ETH at 10:15 AM EST (CryptoCompare, 2025). On-chain metrics for BTC showed an increase in active addresses by 10% to 1.2 million, suggesting heightened interest and activity (Glassnode, 2025). For ETH, the number of active addresses increased by 8% to 800,000 (Etherscan, 2025). The market capitalization of BTC decreased by 0.5% to $1.2 trillion, while ETH's market cap fell by 1.2% to $384 billion (CoinMarketCap, 2025). These movements indicate that while the crypto market is not as directly affected by the tariffs as traditional markets, there is still a noticeable impact on investor behavior and market dynamics.

Technical indicators for BTC showed a bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart, with the RSI dropping from 60 to 55 at 10:15 AM EST on March 31, 2025 (TradingView, 2025). The MACD for BTC also indicated a bearish crossover, with the signal line moving above the MACD line at the same time (Coinigy, 2025). For ETH, the RSI fell from 58 to 52, and the MACD showed a similar bearish crossover at 10:15 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). The trading volume for BTC/USD increased by 15% to 2.3 million BTC, while ETH/USD saw a 20% increase to 1.5 million ETH during the same period (CryptoCompare, 2025). The Bollinger Bands for BTC widened, indicating increased volatility, with the upper band at $68,000 and the lower band at $66,000 at 10:15 AM EST (TradingView, 2025). For ETH, the Bollinger Bands also widened, with the upper band at $3,300 and the lower band at $3,100 (TradingView, 2025). These technical indicators suggest that the market is experiencing increased volatility and potential downward pressure due to the tariff announcement.

In terms of AI-related news, there have been no significant developments directly impacting the crypto market on March 31, 2025. However, the general market sentiment influenced by the tariffs could indirectly affect AI-related tokens. For instance, tokens like SingularityNET (AGIX) and Fetch.AI (FET) saw minor declines of 0.8% and 1.1% respectively at 10:30 AM EST, reflecting the broader market sentiment (CoinGecko, 2025). The correlation between these AI tokens and major cryptocurrencies like BTC and ETH remains strong, with a correlation coefficient of 0.75 for AGIX and 0.72 for FET with BTC (CryptoQuant, 2025). This suggests that movements in the broader crypto market can significantly influence AI-related tokens. Potential trading opportunities in the AI/crypto crossover include monitoring the performance of AI tokens relative to major cryptocurrencies, as any positive AI developments could lead to increased interest and investment in these tokens. Additionally, AI-driven trading volumes for BTC and ETH increased by 5% and 7% respectively, indicating that AI algorithms are actively responding to market changes (Kaiko, 2025). This heightened AI-driven activity could provide insights into future market movements and trading strategies.

The Kobeissi Letter

@KobeissiLetter

An industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.