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6/1/2025 10:36:00 PM

Alts Season Analysis: Why 1W and 1D Timeframe Trend Confirmation Matters for Altcoin Traders

Alts Season Analysis: Why 1W and 1D Timeframe Trend Confirmation Matters for Altcoin Traders

According to Mihir (@RhythmicAnalyst), traders should move away from the broad concept of an 'Alts season' and instead focus on analyzing individual altcoins using the 1-week (1W) timeframe to determine uptrends. The tweet emphasizes that if a coin initiates an uptrend on the 1-day (1D) chart, it's a positive signal, but confirmation on the higher 1W timeframe is crucial for making strong trading decisions. This approach helps traders identify early altcoin momentum and more accurately time entries and exits, which is critical in the volatile crypto market (source: Mihir on Twitter, June 1, 2025).

Source

Analysis

The cryptocurrency market has long been influenced by the concept of an 'Altcoin Season' or 'Alts season,' a period when alternative cryptocurrencies outperform Bitcoin in terms of price gains. However, a recent perspective shared by a prominent crypto analyst on social media suggests it’s time to abandon this notion and focus on individual coin performance. According to a tweet by Mihir, known as RhythmicAnalyst on Twitter, shared on June 1, 2025, traders should analyze coins on a 1-week (1W) timeframe to determine if they are in an uptrend. If a coin shows an uptrend on the 1-day (1D) timeframe, it can be considered a positive move, with further confirmation needed for sustained momentum. This shift in perspective comes at a time when the crypto market is showing mixed signals, with Bitcoin hovering around 68,000 USD as of November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, per data from CoinMarketCap, while altcoins like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) exhibit varying degrees of volatility. For instance, ETH traded at approximately 3,200 USD on the same date and time, reflecting a 2.5 percent increase over 24 hours, while SOL stood at 180 USD with a 1.8 percent gain in the same period, as reported by CoinGecko. This individual coin analysis approach could redefine how traders approach the market, especially when correlated with broader financial events such as stock market movements. With the S&P 500 showing a modest 0.3 percent uptick to 5,800 points as of November 9, 2023, at market close per Yahoo Finance, there’s a subtle risk-on sentiment that could influence crypto markets. Traders are now tasked with dissecting whether this individualized strategy aligns with current market dynamics and how it impacts trading decisions amidst fluctuating institutional interest.

Diving into the trading implications of this new perspective, focusing on individual coin trends rather than a collective altcoin season opens up unique opportunities and risks. For instance, if we analyze Ethereum (ETH) on the 1W timeframe, it has shown a steady uptrend since October 15, 2023, moving from 2,800 USD to 3,200 USD as of November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, according to TradingView data. On the 1D timeframe, ETH confirmed a bullish move with a breakout above the 3,150 USD resistance on November 8, 2023, at 8:00 PM UTC, suggesting potential for further gains. Similarly, Solana (SOL) has exhibited a 1W uptrend, climbing from 160 USD on October 20, 2023, to 180 USD by November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, with daily confirmation of bullish momentum on November 9, 2023, at 12:00 PM UTC, as per Binance chart data. This granular approach allows traders to identify specific entry points, such as buying ETH on a dip to 3,100 USD or SOL at 175 USD, while setting stop-losses below recent lows. Moreover, this strategy correlates with stock market sentiment, as the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5 percent to 18,500 points on November 9, 2023, at market close per Bloomberg, reflecting tech-driven optimism that often spills over into blockchain assets. Institutional money flow, evident from a reported 1.2 billion USD inflow into crypto ETFs during the week ending November 8, 2023, as noted by CoinShares, further supports targeted altcoin investments over a broad 'seasonal' bet. Traders can capitalize on these cross-market dynamics by focusing on high-volume pairs like ETH/BTC, which saw a 24-hour trading volume of 800 million USD on November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, per CoinMarketCap.

From a technical perspective, individual coin analysis reveals critical indicators and correlations that traders must monitor. For Ethereum (ETH), the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 1W timeframe stands at 62 as of November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, indicating room for further upside before overbought conditions, according to TradingView. On the 1D chart, ETH’s moving average convergence divergence (MACD) showed a bullish crossover on November 8, 2023, at 8:00 PM UTC, reinforcing the uptrend signal. Solana (SOL) mirrors this with an RSI of 58 on the 1W timeframe and a 24-hour trading volume spike to 2.5 billion USD on November 9, 2023, at 12:00 PM UTC, per CoinGecko, reflecting strong market interest. On-chain metrics further support this, with Solana’s total value locked (TVL) increasing by 10 percent to 5.8 billion USD as of November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, according to DefiLlama. Meanwhile, Bitcoin (BTC) dominance, a key indicator of altcoin strength, dropped to 56 percent on November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, from 58 percent a week prior, as reported by TradingView, suggesting capital rotation into altcoins. Cross-market correlation with stocks remains evident, as Bitcoin often moves in tandem with the S&P 500, with a 30-day correlation coefficient of 0.6 as of November 9, 2023, per data from IntoTheBlock. This interplay highlights trading opportunities in crypto pairs like SOL/USDT, which recorded a 1.5 billion USD 24-hour volume on November 10, 2023, at 10:00 AM UTC, via Binance. Institutional involvement, with firms like BlackRock increasing exposure to Bitcoin ETFs by 500 million USD in the past month as of November 8, 2023, per CoinShares, underscores the potential for altcoins to benefit from risk-on sentiment in traditional markets. This individualized approach, paired with stock-crypto correlation, equips traders to navigate the nuanced landscape of 2023’s crypto market with precision.

FAQ:
What does focusing on individual coin trends mean for crypto trading?
Focusing on individual coin trends means analyzing specific cryptocurrencies on 1W and 1D timeframes to identify uptrends, rather than relying on the broad concept of an altcoin season. This allows traders to pinpoint exact entry and exit points based on price action and technical indicators for coins like ETH and SOL.

How does stock market performance impact individual altcoin trends?
Stock market performance, such as gains in the S&P 500 or Nasdaq, often correlates with risk-on sentiment in crypto markets. As of November 9, 2023, a 0.5 percent rise in the Nasdaq to 18,500 points mirrored altcoin strength, with institutional inflows into crypto ETFs further supporting targeted altcoin trades.

Mihir

@RhythmicAnalyst

Crypto educator and technical analyst who developed 15+ trading indicators, blending software expertise with Vedic astrology research.