According to The Kobeissi Letter, the 1-year US recession probability, as priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread, has surged to 60%, marking the highest level since 2022. Over the past several weeks, this probability has tripled, indicating increasing investor concern about a potential economic downturn. Historically, such high recession probabilities have preceded significant market corrections, which is highly relevant for traders managing equity and crypto portfolios. Source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, April 26, 2025.