According to The Kobeissi Letter, the persistence of current tariffs could lead to a 150 basis point reduction in US GDP growth. The Trump Administration aims to generate $600 billion annually from these tariffs, though it is projected that only 50% of this target might be achieved.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to reach a record 156% by 2055, based on the latest forecast from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). This represents an increase from the 154% estimated in January 2025 projections. The CBO's forecast assumes nominal US GDP will grow to $88.4 trillion. These projections are critical for traders as they may influence long-term interest rates and economic stability, affecting investment strategies in US government bonds and currency markets.

According to Edward Dowd, the GDP growth of the US over the last two years has been notably strong compared to other developed economies, driven by fiscal dominance and record deficits. Dowd suggests that if foreign buyers stop purchasing or begin selling US assets, it could create headwinds for US equities. This highlights the importance of monitoring foreign investment behavior for potential impacts on the US stock market.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumer spending on healthcare and government expenditures accounted for over 50% of GDP growth in Q3 2024, with healthcare services alone contributing 25% and government spending 28%. This significant increase signals a potential shift in economic focus which traders should consider when analyzing market movements and economic policies.

According to @KobeissiLetter, US consumer spending on healthcare services and government expenditures together accounted for more than 50% of the GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024. Specifically, consumer spending on healthcare alone contributed 25% to the GDP growth, while government spending added 28%. This significant allocation towards healthcare and government services highlights key sectors influencing economic expansion, which traders should consider when evaluating market movements.