According to @QCompounding, analysis from 10x Research, led by Markus Thielen, indicates that Coinbase (COIN) shares are rapidly approaching an overvaluation threshold, creating a potential trading opportunity. The research highlights a fundamental disconnect, as COIN's 84% surge in the last two months has significantly outpaced Bitcoin's (BTC) 14% rise and underlying crypto trading volumes. Thielen suggests a pair trade of shorting COIN while going long BTC to capitalize on this dislocation, noting the stock's valuation appears extended and vulnerable to mean reversion. Separately, the report notes that MicroStrategy's (MSTR) perpetual preferred shares are rallying, potentially due to traders front-running the company's anticipated inclusion in the S&P 500 index. This speculation is fueled by Bitcoin's record monthly close, which, according to analyst Jeff Walton, boosts MSTR's earnings to a level that qualifies it for the U.S. equity benchmark.

According to @QCompounding, traditional asset managers are increasingly adopting blockchain technology to modernize their operations, moving away from outdated, spreadsheet-based systems. This shift is highlighted by major players like BlackRock, whose tokenized institutional money market fund has grown to over $2.5 billion in assets under management (AUM) since its launch, demonstrating a significant move towards on-chain efficiency. The analysis points to tokenization not just as an operational upgrade for fund administration but as a foundation for new, more accessible products like tokenized private credit funds, offering fractional ownership and greater liquidity. For investors, the case for digital assets is built on a superior risk-reward ratio, with the performance of Bitcoin (BTC) being more than three-to-one against the S&P 500 per unit of risk, according to the source. A key strategy for generating alpha in volatile markets involves a two-pronged approach: first, a disciplined accumulation strategy using dollar-cost averaging for a portfolio of top assets, and second, trading with the trend by analyzing adoption curves and technological progress. This analysis is presented as the market sees a slight downturn, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading near $108,091, Ethereum (ETH) around $2,531, and Solana (SOL) at approximately $148.14, all showing 24-hour declines.

According to Aaron Brogan, the recent wave of crypto initial public offerings (IPOs) signals a significant shift in market dynamics, highlighted by Circle's (USDC) blockbuster debut which raised $1.05 billion and saw its market capitalization soar to $43.9 billion. Brogan suggests three key theories for this success: a public market premium where investors pay more for crypto exposure through stocks, as seen with MicroStrategy; anticipated regulatory clarity from the proposed GENIUS Act for stablecoins; and a favorable macro environment with high Treasury yields boosting issuer revenue. This IPO boom occurs as the industry grapples with valuation, with analyst @QCompounding noting that current models are flawed, similar to the early dot-com era. @QCompounding proposes a new framework based on 'velocity and flow'—measuring economic activity like stablecoin turnover and DeFi transaction loops—to better assess a blockchain's intrinsic value. Underscoring this market evolution, Jean-Marie Mognetti of CoinShares reveals survey data showing nearly 90% of crypto holders plan to increase their allocations, demanding advisors with deep expertise in risk and regulation. Further positive sentiment comes from the U.S. Federal Reserve removing 'reputational risk' from bank examinations, potentially easing barriers for traditional finance to engage with crypto.

According to @QCompounding, the cryptocurrency sector is increasingly merging with public equity markets, highlighted by several major IPOs. Aaron Brogan of Brogan Law notes that Circle's (USDC) public offering was particularly successful, raising $1.05 billion and seeing its market cap surge to $43.9 billion, indicating strong investor demand for crypto-related stocks. Brogan suggests three theories for this success: a public market premium for crypto assets similar to MicroStrategy (MSTR), potential regulatory clarity for stablecoins from the proposed GENIUS Act, and the lucrative impact of high Treasury yields on stablecoin issuers' revenue. Meanwhile, a survey from CoinShares, shared by CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti, reveals that nearly 90% of crypto holders plan to increase their allocations and are seeking advisors who understand risk management, regulation, and secure investment vehicles like ETFs. For traders looking for alpha, the analysis recommends strategies such as dollar-cost averaging into a portfolio of assets, developing a clear trading plan for specific price levels, and investing along with major trends identified through adoption curves and technological progress. The current market shows Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $108,307 and Ethereum (ETH) at approximately $2,538.

According to @QCompounding, the recent wave of successful crypto initial public offerings (IPOs) signals increasing integration between digital assets and traditional public markets. Analyst Aaron Brogan highlights the remarkable IPOs of eToro, Galaxy Digital, and particularly Circle Internet Group Inc. (USDC), which raised $1.05 billion and saw its market cap surge to $43.9 billion, indicating massive investor demand. Brogan theorizes Circle's success is driven by factors like the premium investors pay for crypto-exposed stocks, potential regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, and a favorable macro environment with high Treasury yields boosting issuer revenue. Supporting this bullish sentiment, CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti reveals survey data showing nearly 90% of crypto holders plan to increase their allocations and are actively seeking advisors skilled in risk management for digital assets. For traders looking for alpha, one expert suggests a strategy combining dollar-cost averaging, having a pre-set trading plan for major price moves, and investing with the trend by analyzing adoption curves and technology progression. Current market data shows Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $108,154 and Ethereum (ETH) at approximately $2,538.

According to @QCompounding, traditional asset managers are increasingly adopting blockchain technology to modernize their outdated, manual-based operations and create innovative investment products. The analysis highlights that major financial institutions like BlackRock, Apollo, and Franklin Templeton are already pioneering this shift with tokenized funds, which have attracted billions in assets by offering fractional ownership, enhanced liquidity, and automated strategies. For traders, this signifies a major wave of institutional capital and product development, particularly in Real World Assets (RWA). Despite this growth, the author notes that accurately valuing blockchain networks remains a challenge, similar to the early internet era. A new proposed valuation framework focuses on 'velocity and flow'—measuring dynamic on-chain economic activity such as stablecoin turnover and DeFi trading volumes—to provide a more native and resilient measure of a network's true utility and value, moving beyond static metrics.

According to @QCompounding, Anthony Pompliano's ProCap BTC has made a significant institutional move by purchasing 3,724 Bitcoin (BTC) at an average price of $103,785 per coin, following a $775 million capital raise. This purchase is the start of a treasury program that could expand to $1 billion in BTC, signaling strong corporate conviction in Bitcoin as the new 'hurdle rate' for capital. In contrast, the author warns that the broader Web3 ecosystem is being strangled by 'Ponzi VCs' who prioritize quick token exits over sustainable product development. This venture capital model, which relies on a constant inflow of new buyers to reward insiders, is leading to a 'graveyard of zombie protocols' and draining talent from the space, creating significant risks for investors in many altcoin and Web3 projects.

According to @QCompounding, the crypto market is seeing increased integration with public equities, highlighted by several major IPOs. The source notes that Circle Internet Group Inc. (USDC issuer) raised $1.05 billion, with its market cap surging to $43.9 billion post-IPO. Aaron Brogan, founder of Brogan Law, suggests this success may be due to factors like the premium investors pay for crypto exposure via public stocks (similar to MicroStrategy), potential regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act for stablecoins, and lucrative Treasury yields for issuers. In contrast to this integration, Anthony Scaramucci of SkyBridge Capital predicts the trend of companies holding Bitcoin (BTC) in their treasuries, pioneered by MicroStrategy (MSTR), will fade. Scaramucci argues investors may question paying a premium for a company to hold an asset they could buy directly. Additionally, Jean-Marie Mognetti, CEO of CoinShares, reports that nearly 90% of crypto investors plan to increase their allocations and are seeking advisors who can provide guidance on risk management and secure vehicles like ETFs.

According to @QCompounding, the recent wave of crypto IPOs, particularly Circle's (USDC), signals a major shift in how digital assets are valued in public markets. Aaron Brogan, founder of Brogan Law, provides three key theories for Circle's massive post-IPO valuation surge to $43.9 billion. First, public market comparisons, such as MicroStrategy, suggest investors are willing to pay a significant premium for crypto exposure through traditional stocks. Second, the impending GENIUS Act is expected to provide regulatory clarity for stablecoins, potentially boosting issuer profitability by prohibiting yield pass-throughs to holders. Third, rising Treasury yields create a lucrative macro environment for stablecoin issuers like Circle, whose revenue is largely derived from the interest on their reserves. However, the analysis also cautions that Circle's valuation, now over half of Coinbase's, could be considered 'froth,' given Coinbase's contractual right to half of Circle's reserve revenue. Current market data shows Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $108,154.01 and Ethereum (ETH) at $2,537.24.

According to @QCompounding, analysis from 10x Research indicates that Coinbase (COIN) shares are rapidly approaching an overvaluation threshold, creating a potential trading opportunity. 10x Research notes a significant disconnect between COIN's 84% price surge over two months and its underlying fundamentals, as Bitcoin (BTC) only rose 14% and crypto trading volumes remain modest. Their linear regression model suggests COIN's valuation is extended and vulnerable to mean reversion. Consequently, 10x Research recommends a pair trade: going long on Bitcoin while shorting Coinbase stock. Separately, the report highlights that MicroStrategy's (MSTR) perpetual preferred shares are rallying, potentially in anticipation of the company's inclusion in the S&P 500 index. This speculation is fueled by Bitcoin's high price boosting MSTR's quarterly earnings, which could satisfy the final criteria for index inclusion. The preferred shares have delivered significant returns, such as STRK's 42% gain since February, outperforming both Bitcoin and the S&P 500, while also offering attractive yields starting from 6.6%.

According to @QCompounding, traditional asset managers are leveraging blockchain technology to modernize their outdated, inefficient operations and launch innovative investment products. The analysis highlights that blockchain offers a modern financial operating system, replacing manual processes like spreadsheets and email-based capital calls with a single, transparent source of truth via permissioned ledgers and smart contracts. This shift significantly reduces operational risk and costs. Furthermore, major financial institutions are already capitalizing on this trend. For example, BlackRock's tokenized institutional money market fund (BUIDL) has surpassed $2.5 billion in assets under management, while Apollo's tokenized private credit fund has moved over $100 million on-chain. Franklin Templeton's Benji platform also allows investors to transfer shares of its tokenized money market fund using stablecoins. This growing institutional adoption of tokenization for real-world assets (RWA) signals a strong long-term catalyst for the underlying blockchain ecosystems and related digital assets.

According to @QCompounding, the cryptocurrency industry is at risk of losing its foundational cypherpunk values by becoming too closely aligned with the political and corporate powers it was designed to challenge. The author points to major industry players like Coinbase and Ripple engaging in political sponsorships and lobbying, arguing this co-opts the movement's mission for financial freedom and decentralization. This trend, exemplified by Coinbase's sponsorship of political events, is framed not as mainstream validation but as a betrayal of the core ethos that underpins crypto's value proposition. This ideological shift occurs as the market shows mixed signals, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading at approximately $108,322 after a 0.63% dip and Ethereum (ETH) at $2,561, while Solana (SOL) sees a slight gain to $152.38. @QCompounding also envisions a future 'Automated Abundance Economy' driven by AI, where technologies like blockchain could be crucial for distributing wealth through systems like Universal Basic Income (UBI), highlighting a potential future use case that contrasts sharply with the industry's current political trajectory.

According to @QCompounding, the crypto industry faces an identity crisis as its foundational cypherpunk values are diluted by mainstream adoption and political alignment. The author points to actions like Coinbase's political sponsorships as a betrayal of crypto's mission to be a counterweight to centralized power, contrasting this with genuine innovation from firms like AI developer Anthropic, which reached a $61.5 billion valuation, and MANSA, which used stablecoins for $92 million in payments. This ideological struggle is reflected in current market data, where Bitcoin (BTC) trades at $108,322.63 after a 0.63% decline, and Ethereum (ETH) is stable at $2,561.06. Other assets show mixed results, with XRP gaining 1.16% to $2.3120 and Solana (SOL) up 0.66% to $152.46, highlighting market uncertainty as the sector grapples with its future direction.

According to @QCompounding, while Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a period of low volatility despite reaching new all-time highs, this presents a unique trading setup. Citing analysis from NYDIG Research, the report notes that both realized and implied volatility have trended lower, driven by increased demand from treasury companies and sophisticated strategies like options overwriting. This environment makes options trading relatively inexpensive, offering a cost-effective way for traders to position for directional moves. NYDIG highlights potential upcoming catalysts such as the SEC's decision on the GDLC conversion (July 2) and the Crypto Working Group’s findings (July 22). Additionally, the analysis delves into the recent crypto IPO market, with Aaron Brogan of Brogan Law suggesting Circle's (USDC) successful IPO may be due to factors like the high premium for crypto exposure on public markets and potential regulatory clarity from the GENIUS Act. Further insights from CoinShares CEO Jean-Marie Mognetti reveal that nearly 90% of crypto holders plan to increase their allocations and are seeking expert guidance on risk management and secure investment vehicles over simple token picking.

According to @QCompounding, the crypto industry is facing an identity crisis, straying from its cypherpunk roots as major players like Coinbase and Ripple engage more with traditional political and corporate structures. This shift is highlighted by Coinbase's political sponsorships, which critics argue betrays the mission of creating a counterweight to centralized power. This ideological drift coincides with a stark warning from Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin, who stated the industry is at an "inflection point." Buterin stressed that for Ethereum (ETH) to survive and not become a passing fad, decentralization must evolve from a "catchphrase" into a concrete user guarantee. He proposed a "walk-away test" for projects, questioning if users would retain their assets if the founding company disappeared. Buterin cautioned that many Layer-2 and DeFi projects currently rely on insecure backdoors, posing significant risks. He warned that if Ethereum fails to address these core protocol issues and strengthen its decentralization, it could lose its competitive edge. As of the report, ETHUSDT was trading around $2,560.96, while BTCUSDT was at approximately $108,322.63.

According to @QCompounding, the crypto industry is experiencing a dangerous dilution of its core cypherpunk values as it gains mainstream legitimacy and political influence. The analysis criticizes major players like Coinbase for aligning with political power structures, arguing this betrays crypto's original purpose as a counterweight to the state. Furthermore, the author warns traders about the prevalence of 'Ponzi VC' funding models in Web3, where term sheets are structured for rapid insider exits rather than sustainable product development, citing a $198 million SEC fraud case as a stark example of investor risk. This model, which prioritizes hype over utility, is creating a 'graveyard of zombie protocols' and eroding long-term trust. Amid this internal conflict, market data shows mixed performance, with Bitcoin (BTC) down 0.63% to $108,322.63, while altcoins like Solana (SOL) and Chainlink (LINK) posted modest gains, reflecting underlying market uncertainty.

According to @QCompounding, Wall Street's increasing influence has transformed Bitcoin (BTC) into a macro-driven risk asset, shedding its identity as an uncorrelated, anti-establishment store of value. Citing a report from NYDIG Research, the analysis highlights that Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities is near the historical high at 0.48, causing BTC to move in tandem with traditional markets in response to geopolitical and macroeconomic news. Simultaneously, Bitcoin's volatility has trended lower, a development NYDIG attributes to increased institutional demand and sophisticated trading strategies. For traders, this low volatility environment makes options trading—both call options for upside exposure and put options for downside protection—relatively inexpensive, presenting a cost-effective opportunity to position for directional moves ahead of anticipated market catalysts.

According to Markus Thielen of 10x Research, Coinbase (COIN) shares are rapidly approaching an overvaluation threshold, creating a prime opportunity for a pairs trade. Thielen recommends shorting COIN while simultaneously going long on Bitcoin (BTC) to capitalize on a potential tactical reversal. The analysis highlights a significant fundamental disconnect, noting that COIN's stock has surged 84% over the past two months, while Bitcoin has only risen 14%. According to 10x Research's linear regression model, 75% of COIN's price is typically explained by Bitcoin's price and trading volumes, but the recent rally appears disconnected from these underlying fundamentals, with crypto trading volumes hovering around $108 billion. Thielen states this rare deviation suggests Coinbase’s valuation is extended and vulnerable to mean reversion, making the short COIN, long BTC position an attractive strategy.

According to @QCompounding, Bitcoin (BTC) has fundamentally shifted from an uncorrelated, anti-establishment asset to a macro-driven risk asset heavily influenced by Wall Street. A NYDIG Research report confirms this, noting Bitcoin's correlation with U.S. equities is at 0.48, near the higher end of its historical range, while its correlation to gold is near zero, challenging the 'digital gold' narrative. Recent market activity saw BTC rise to approximately $108,600, spurred by positive institutional news such as JPMorgan filing for a digital asset services trademark and Purpose planning a spot XRP ETF in Canada, which also caused XRP to rally. However, Nansen research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard cautions that it is not yet 'alt season,' as Bitcoin continues to lead the market. From a technical perspective, Bitfinex analysts identify the $102,000-$103,000 zone as a critical support level for BTC, suggesting a potential market bottom if it holds. Traders are now closely watching the upcoming FOMC meeting, as Fed Chair Powell's remarks are expected to drive significant market volatility.

According to @QCompounding, analysis from 10x Research suggests a tactical pair trade of shorting Coinbase (COIN) stock while simultaneously holding a long position in Bitcoin (BTC). The research firm, led by Markus Thielen, notes that COIN shares are rapidly approaching an overvaluation threshold, having rallied 84% in the last two months while Bitcoin only gained 14%, creating a significant fundamental disconnect. 10x Research's linear regression model indicates that COIN's stock is overextended relative to Bitcoin's price and crypto trading volumes, making it vulnerable to mean reversion. Thielen suggests that positive catalysts like Circle's potential IPO and recent investor enthusiasm appear to be fully priced in. Separately, the report highlights that MicroStrategy's (MSTR) perpetual preferred shares are rallying, potentially front-running the company's anticipated inclusion in the S&P 500 index following Bitcoin's record-high monthly close which boosted MSTR's earnings profile.