According to Edward Dowd, the manufacturing PMI has returned to contraction territory at 49 after a short-term increase attributed to a 'Trump confidence bump'. Historically a reliable indicator for GDP and employment, this correlation has faltered in 2023 and 2024.

According to Edward Dowd, the short-term bump in Manufacturing PMI, which was likely influenced by a Trump-induced confidence boost, has ended, dropping back to 49. Historically, Manufacturing PMI has been a reliable leading indicator of GDP and employment trends. However, this correlation has failed to hold since 2023, affecting economic forecasts and trading strategies. Source: Edward Dowd's Twitter.