According to The Kobeissi Letter, both Democrats and Republicans are reporting sharply higher inflation expectations for the next 12 months, with Democrats anticipating +9.6% inflation and Republicans +1.2% (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 16, 2025). This shift in sentiment is critical for traders, as increased inflation forecasts can drive investors toward inflation-hedged assets such as Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Historically, heightened inflation expectations have corresponded with increased crypto market volatility and trading volumes, as market participants seek alternative stores of value (source: Arcane Research, 2023). Traders should monitor inflation sentiment closely, as these dynamics could signal renewed bullish momentum in the crypto sector.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 1.6 points in April 2025 to 95.8, marking its lowest level since October 2024. Six out of ten index components declined, with expectations for future business conditions showing the sharpest drop. This growing pessimism among US small businesses signals potential economic headwinds, increasing investor caution in risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Historically, lower business confidence can lead to reduced liquidity and higher volatility in the crypto market as traders seek safer assets. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (Twitter, May 15, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index in the US fell by 1.6 points to 95.8 in April 2025, marking its lowest level since October 2024 (source: Twitter, @KobeissiLetter, May 15, 2025). Six out of ten index components declined, with business condition expectations showing the steepest drop. For traders, this signals growing economic uncertainty among small businesses, which historically correlates with increased volatility in both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. Market participants should monitor risk sentiment closely, as pessimism in the small business sector can spill over into crypto asset pricing, particularly affecting Bitcoin and altcoin volatility.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, April 2025 PPI inflation decreased to 2.4%, undercutting expectations of 2.5%, while core PPI fell to 3.1%, matching forecasts. However, March PPI figures were revised upward from 3.3% to 4.0%, and core PPI from 3.1% to 3.4%. These mixed inflation signals may increase short-term market volatility and uncertainty, directly influencing crypto traders' risk sentiment as monetary policy outlooks remain unclear. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (May 15, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US equity funds have received approximately $1.5 billion in net inflows over the past month, marking the strongest foreign investment since February 2025. This reversal follows a significant net outflow of $5 billion at the beginning of April, which was the largest withdrawal in at least five years (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 14, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, increased foreign capital in US stocks may signal renewed risk appetite and attract liquidity back into traditional markets, potentially reducing near-term volatility in digital assets as investors diversify. Monitoring these cross-market flows is crucial for crypto traders seeking to anticipate shifts in capital allocation and market sentiment.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the number of employees at nonbank real-estate lenders has dropped by 38% from its 2021 peak, reaching approximately 180,000—near the lowest level this century. In 2024, nonbank lenders dominated the mortgage origination space, with the top three mortgage lenders by originations all being nonbanks (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 14, 2025). This significant contraction signals tightening credit and liquidity conditions in traditional real estate markets, which can drive increased institutional and retail interest in crypto-based lending platforms and DeFi protocols as alternative financing solutions. Crypto traders should monitor shifts in traditional lending employment and origination trends, as these can indicate broader credit cycles and potential capital flows into digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Global PMI New Export Orders index fell by 2.6 points in April, reaching 47.5, its lowest level since late 2022. This represents the sharpest drop since August 2023 and indicates a continuous decline in goods exports since the second half of last year, except for March. For crypto traders, this significant downturn in global trade may heighten uncertainty and volatility across digital asset markets, as reduced global demand can dampen risk appetite and liquidity flows (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 13, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, 23% of S&P 500 companies referenced 'recession' during their Q1 2025 earnings calls, the highest level since 2022 and exceeding all years from 2008 to 2020 except one (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 13, 2025). This significant uptick in recession concerns among US corporate executives signals heightened economic uncertainty, which historically drives increased volatility and risk-off sentiment in both traditional equities and cryptocurrency markets. Traders should monitor for potential capital flows out of risk assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as macroeconomic caution rises.

According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), the weekly market analysis and 'Chart of the Week' published for May 12, 2025, highlight critical macroeconomic trends and price movements across major assets. The report examines equities volatility and interest rate shifts, directly influencing Bitcoin and altcoin sentiment as traders adjust crypto portfolios in response to stock market signals. The Kobeissi Letter notes recent S&P 500 fluctuations and bond yields as factors impacting crypto asset flows, underlining the need for active risk management and close monitoring of cross-market correlations. Source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, May 11, 2025.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, upcoming key retail earnings data are set to impact trading strategies as earnings season continues. The Kobeissi Letter reports that their trading calls have produced over +370% returns since 2020, highlighting a strong track record. This week, their published trades reflect positioning ahead of major retail earnings, which could influence both traditional equities and crypto market sentiment as consumer spending trends are revealed (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 11, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US households have depleted $3 trillion in savings since August 2021, fully exhausting the $2.1 trillion in excess savings accumulated during the pandemic by Q2 2024 (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 10, 2025). This rapid drawdown in household liquidity suggests diminished consumer financial resilience, which could reduce retail investment flows into both traditional and crypto markets. Crypto traders should watch for potential shifts in market sentiment as reduced household savings may impact demand for risk assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US households have depleted $3 trillion in savings since August 2021, wiping out the $2.1 trillion in excess savings accumulated from March 2020 to August 2021. This depletion, confirmed as of Q2 2024, signals reduced consumer liquidity and waning disposable income, which typically dampens risk-on asset trading. For crypto traders, this trend may result in lower retail participation and increased volatility in cryptocurrencies as traditional investment flows contract. Source: The Kobeissi Letter (May 10, 2025).

According to The Kobeissi Letter, China's central bank increased its gold reserves by approximately 70,000 troy ounces in April 2025, pushing total holdings to a record 73.8 million ounces. This marks the sixth consecutive month of gold accumulation, with total increases reaching nearly 1 million ounces in half a year (The Kobeissi Letter, May 9, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, this sustained gold accumulation signals persistent demand for alternative stores of value amid global economic uncertainty, potentially increasing investment flows into digital assets like Bitcoin as investors seek diversified hedges.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, 0DTE (zero-day-to-expiry) options accounted for 67% of total options trading volume on Tuesday, marking an all-time high. Over the past three years, the volume share of these high-risk instruments has more than doubled, indicating a significant surge in risk appetite among traders (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 8, 2025). This rapid shift toward ultra-short-term derivatives trading often signals a growing preference for high volatility plays, which can spill over into major crypto assets as traders seek similar rapid-return opportunities. The increased use of 0DTE options is likely to amplify short-term volatility in both traditional equity and cryptocurrency markets, as heightened risk-taking tends to correlate with larger price swings in digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US companies announced $233.8 billion in stock buybacks in April 2025, marking the second-highest monthly total since records began in 1984. This sharp increase, compared to just $39.1 billion in March, signals renewed corporate confidence and liquidity in the equity markets (Source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 8, 2025). For crypto traders, this surge in buybacks often reflects improving risk appetite and can lead to increased capital flows into risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as investors seek higher returns. Monitoring stock buyback trends is crucial for anticipating shifts in liquidity that could impact both traditional and digital asset markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, institutional investors are continuing to decrease their stock market exposure, as evidenced by funding spreads dropping 8 basis points last week to the lowest level since August 2024 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 6, 2025). Funding spreads gauge institutional appetite for long positions in stocks via futures, options, and swaps. This decline signals weakening institutional confidence in equities, which often drives capital into alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies. Traders should monitor this shift as reduced equity demand could boost crypto market inflows, potentially increasing volatility and trading opportunities in digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US Treasury yield curve has steepened to approximately 50 basis points, marking its highest level since February 2022 after 793 consecutive days of inversion—the longest streak in history (source: The Kobeissi Letter, May 6, 2025). The spread between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has remained positive for the past 8 months. This steepening signals a shift in market sentiment about economic growth and inflation, which is closely monitored by crypto traders as it often impacts risk appetite and liquidity across global markets. Historically, a normalized yield curve can lead to increased volatility and capital flows into cryptocurrencies as investors rebalance portfolios in response to changing macroeconomic conditions.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a short position in the S&P 500 was initiated as the index approached 5700 prior to the weekend, resulting in a gain of nearly 100 points as of today (source: @KobeissiLetter, May 6, 2025). This sharp movement in traditional equity markets signals heightened volatility, which often prompts increased crypto trading activity as investors seek alternative assets. Traders should monitor correlations between the S&P 500 downturn and potential inflows into high-liquidity cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, as risk-off sentiment in equities can drive capital rotation into digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter), their premium members received an alert to short the S&P 500 as it approached the 5700 level before the weekend. As of May 6, 2025, these short positions are now nearly +100 points profitable (source: @KobeissiLetter, Twitter). This significant drop in the S&P 500 suggests increased risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, which historically leads to heightened volatility and potential capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market. Traders should closely monitor Bitcoin and major altcoins for possible bullish momentum as equity weakness may drive institutional and retail interest toward digital assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, a premium buy alert for gold was issued on Friday at the $3255 level, and those long positions have already turned profitable with a $130 price increase today (Source: The Kobeissi Letter Twitter, May 6, 2025). This trading signal indicates strong bullish momentum in the gold market, providing actionable insights for traders focusing on breakout strategies and momentum trading in precious metals.