According to @CryptoQuant, current BTC return expectations are comparatively low, with the BTC basis rate standing at only 5.7% per annum, ranking at the 37th percentile. This low basis rate suggests limited arbitrage opportunities between BTC spot and futures, which undermines the potential profitability of Jim Chanos’ short MicroStrategy (MSTR) and long BTC trade. As a result, traders should closely monitor BTC basis rates and MSTR price movements for better timing and risk management. Source: @CryptoQuant.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, traders can use the MSTR (MicroStrategy) NAV premium as a reliable proxy for Bitcoin (BTC) return expectations. A higher MSTR NAV premium signals increased BTC return expectations among market participants, while a lower premium or discount points to subdued sentiment. Notably, there is a strong correlation of approximately 0.62 between the MSTR NAV premium and the BTC basis rate, which further supports its value as a leading indicator for crypto traders looking to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements. (Source: @Andre_Dragosch on Twitter, June 17, 2025)