According to André Dragosch, PhD, prediction market odds on Polymarket for the removal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have surged to their highest level year-to-date. This development signals growing political uncertainty surrounding the Fed's leadership, which could have significant implications for traders. A potential change at the helm of the U.S. central bank could lead to shifts in monetary policy and interest rate outlooks, directly impacting the valuation of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader digital asset market.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a potential acquisition of Bitcoin miner Core Scientific (CORZ) by AI cloud firm CoreWeave could drive the stock price to over $30 per share, a significant increase from its current levels. This analysis is supported by a research note from Cantor Fitzgerald, which values the company based on two key factors. First, a 12-year, $3.5 billion infrastructure lease that Core Scientific signed with CoreWeave is valued at $24 per share. Second, the replacement value of CORZ’s 570MW of power infrastructure adds another $11.70 per share. The report highlights a strategic pivot seen across the crypto mining industry, as noted by Rittenhouse Research, where infrastructure once used for volatile Bitcoin (BTC) mining is being repurposed for more stable, long-term cash flows from AI computing. While this pivot has been successful for some, others like Bit Digital (BTBT) and Canaan (CAN) have struggled, indicating that Core Scientific's model of leveraging its existing footprint for the AI boom could become a new blueprint for the sector.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50% as expected, but signaled a more hawkish stance for the future. The Fed's updated projections indicate fewer rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, coupled with forecasts for weaker GDP growth at 1.4% and higher PCE inflation at 3.0% for the current year. Following this announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) showed little immediate change, trading around $104,200. Subsequently, a surprisingly strong June jobs report, which showed 147,000 new payrolls against a 110,000 forecast and a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, further dampened expectations for imminent rate cuts. This robust economic data caused a modest dip in Bitcoin's price to just under $109,000. In response to the strong employment figures, traders on the CME FedWatch tool increased the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July to 95%, while the likelihood of a rate cut by September decreased.

According to Coinbase Research and Gregory Mall of Lionsoul Global, a constructive outlook for crypto markets is expected in the second half of the year, driven by a combination of macroeconomic improvements, regulatory progress, and strong institutional demand. Coinbase Research highlights that an improving U.S. growth forecast, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker at 3.8% QoQ, and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts are boosting investor sentiment. Concurrently, regulatory developments like the GENIUS Act and CLARITY Act are providing much-needed clarity. Institutional adoption is accelerating, with Canadian pension funds like Trans-Canada Capital investing $55 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs and total ETF demand outstripping newly minted supply by three times last year, according to Kevin Tam. Gregory Mall notes that while Bitcoin (BTC) has hit new highs, its dominance has climbed above 54%, a historical precursor to altcoin outperformance which typically lags BTC's peak by two to six months. Signs of a potential rotation into altcoins are emerging, supported by Ethereum's (ETH) recent rally, a resurgence in DeFi with Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $117 billion, and continued innovation in Layer 1 ecosystems like Solana (SOL). However, traders should remain cautious as the OECD highlights a fragile global economic landscape, reinforcing crypto's status as a risk-on asset class.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a record-breaking on-chain event involved eight 'Satoshi era' wallets transferring a total of 80,000 BTC, valued at over $8 billion. The source article states that these wallets, some of which had been dormant for over 14 years, moved the funds to new addresses. On-chain analysis firm Arkham suggests a single entity likely controls all eight wallets. For traders, this is a critical development as the movement of such old coins is often a precursor to selling. While the BTC has not yet been moved to an exchange, the market is closely monitoring these wallets for any signs of liquidation, which could introduce significant selling pressure and impact Bitcoin's price.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, two Bitcoin (BTC) wallets that had been dormant for 14 years have moved 20,000 BTC, valued at over $2 billion. Blockchain data from Lookonchain confirms these coins, originally acquired for about $0.78 each, were transferred to new, non-exchange addresses. With BTC's price currently over $109,000, the massive unrealized profit has led to market speculation about a potential sell-off and subsequent downside price volatility. However, since the funds were not sent to a known exchange wallet, the immediate intention is not confirmed profit-taking, and traders are advised to monitor these addresses for further activity that could signal a market move.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the Bitcoin (BTC) market is in a standoff between patient long-term holders and leveraged short-term traders. On-chain data from Glassnode indicates that "HODLing appears to be the dominant market mechanic," with long-term holder supply reaching 14.7 million BTC and the Liveliness metric declining, showing older coins remain dormant. Concurrently, QCP notes persistent institutional demand, evidenced by $2.2 billion in net inflows to spot BTC ETFs last week, but also highlights rising leveraged long positions. This dynamic was underscored as BTC surpassed $110,000, driven by over $407 million in daily ETF inflows according to SoSoValue data, which also lifted memecoins like BONK by over 20%, signaling increased risk appetite. Corporate interest remains strong, with design firm Figma disclosing a $70 million position in a Bitcoin ETF and DeFi Development Corp. planning a $100 million raise to potentially accumulate more Solana (SOL). Looking ahead, FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich suggests the all-time high near $112,000 could be tested, but cautions that the upcoming U.S. employment report could act as either a catalyst or a major obstacle.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Elon Musk plans for his new 'America Party' to embrace Bitcoin (BTC), stating on X that "fiat is hopeless." This potential political support for BTC from a major tech figure contrasts with the current sentiment among financial professionals. Gerry O’Shea, head of global market insights at Hashdex, stated in an interview that the "overwhelming majority of financial advisors" are not yet recommending crypto allocations to clients, primarily due to concerns about volatility. However, O'Shea predicts this hesitation will not last, expecting more advisors to appreciate crypto's long-term benefits by the end of the year. He also identified Bitcoin and stablecoins, which utilize platforms like Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL), as the two main themes for 2025. Current market data shows Bitcoin (BTC) trading at $109,410.13, up 1.20% in 24 hours, while Solana (SOL) is at $152.02, showing a 3.155% gain.

According to analyst André Dragosch, traders should be cautious about relying on the inverse correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) price and USDT Dominance for market predictions. Dragosch presents an analysis suggesting this popular trading indicator might be a fallacy, similar to the often-cited but potentially spurious correlation between BTC and the US M2 Money Supply (source: @Andre_Dragosch). While charts show that a rising USDT Dominance has often preceded BTC price drops, Dragosch implies that drawing direct causal links is an oversimplification. He suggests that, like the M2 correlation, the relationship with USDT Dominance may be influenced by broader factors such as overall market liquidity and risk appetite, rather than being a straightforward predictive tool (source: @Andre_Dragosch). This serves as a warning to traders to avoid basing strategies solely on this single metric.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June has impacted cryptocurrency markets and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The report revealed nonfarm payrolls grew by 147,000, surpassing forecasts of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, below the expected 4.3%, as stated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In the minutes following the release, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) dipped from a one-month high of over $110,000 to just under $109,000. This market reaction is tied to shifting expectations for a Fed rate cut; traders' odds for the Fed to hold rates steady in July soared from 75% to 95% post-report, according to CME FedWatch data. While strong employment suggests a patient Fed, a counter-signal appeared in average hourly earnings, which rose only 0.2%, below the 0.3% forecast. Separately, the author outlines a vision for an 'Automated Abundance Economy,' where advanced AI and robotics could make most human labor unnecessary, with the resulting wealth distributed through a universal basic income (UBI), which he describes as a dividend from automation.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, multiple analyses suggest a strong bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency market. Investment bank Standard Chartered has reiterated its $200,000 year-end price forecast for Bitcoin (BTC), predicting the historical post-halving cycle is "dead" due to strong structural support from institutional investors, according to the bank's head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick. Key drivers identified include robust inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and renewed corporate treasury demand, which collectively absorbed 245,000 BTC in the second quarter. Concurrently, analysis from Gregory Mall of Lionsoul Global suggests a potential rotation into altcoins is on the horizon. Bitcoin dominance has climbed above 54%, a level that historically precedes altcoin outperformance. Ethereum's (ETH) recent rally is cited as an early sign of this shift. Further supporting the institutional narrative, Kevin Tam notes that Canadian pension funds and banks are increasing their BTC ETF holdings, while the UK's FCA has approved retail access to crypto ETNs, signaling a favorable regulatory shift.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, Bitcoin (BTC) has transitioned from an uncorrelated asset to a macro-driven risk asset, heavily influenced by Wall Street. A report from NYDIG confirms this, noting BTC's correlation with U.S. equities is near the historical high at 0.48, while its correlation to gold is near zero, challenging the 'digital gold' narrative. This shift is attributed to institutional adoption, where firms treat BTC like any other risk asset. Meanwhile, analysis from Gregory Mall of Lionsoul Global suggests a potential rotation into altcoins may be imminent. Historically, altcoin rallies have lagged Bitcoin's all-time highs by two to six months, and with BTC dominance currently over 54%, signs of this rotation are emerging, such as Ethereum's (ETH) recent outperformance. This trend is fueled by strong institutional inflows, with spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulating over $16 billion year-to-date, according to Mall. Further analysis by Kevin Tam highlights that ETF demand for BTC last year was three times higher than the newly minted supply, indicating a significant supply-demand imbalance that could impact future price dynamics for BTC and the broader altcoin market, including Solana (SOL) and others.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June has impacted cryptocurrency markets, particularly Bitcoin (BTC). The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported nonfarm payrolls grew by 147,000, surpassing the 110,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This robust data reduced the likelihood of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut, with CME FedWatch odds for holding rates steady in July jumping to 95% post-report. Consequently, Bitcoin's price dipped from a monthly high of over $110,000 to just under $109,000. The provided market data confirms BTC trading around $108,058. In a broader context, the author also presents a long-term vision of an 'Automated Abundance Economy' where AI and automation could generate immense wealth, potentially distributed via Universal Basic Income (UBI), fundamentally altering the nature of work and the economy. This futurist perspective suggests a world where digital assets and decentralized systems could play a crucial role in a new economic paradigm driven by technology rather than traditional labor.

According to Gregory Mall, Bitcoin's (BTC) recent rally to a new all-time high was driven by three key factors: central bank optimism with expected rate cuts, significant institutional inflows into spot BTC ETFs exceeding $16 billion year-to-date, and easing global political risks. Mall's analysis highlights that BTC dominance has climbed above 54%, a level that historically precedes major altcoin outperformance. Historical cycles from 2017 and 2021 show altcoin rallies typically lag BTC's all-time highs by two to six months. Ethereum's (ETH) recent 81% rally from its April lows is cited as a potential early indicator of this capital rotation. Further signs of a potential 'altseason' include institutional investors exploring broader crypto exposure beyond Bitcoin, innovation in Layer 1 ecosystems like Solana (SOL) and Avalanche (AVAX), and a resurgence in DeFi, with Total Value Locked (TVL) surpassing $117 billion, according to DeFiLlama. However, Mall also notes a caution from a recent OECD report on the fragile global economy, which could pose risks to speculative assets like crypto.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the stronger-than-expected U.S. June jobs report has significantly altered market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, impacting Bitcoin's (BTC) price trajectory. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that nonfarm payrolls increased by 147,000, surpassing the forecast of 110,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. In response to this robust economic data, Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest dip to just under $109,000 after recently topping $110,000 for the first time in a month. The strong labor market data reinforces the Federal Reserve's patient stance on monetary policy, with traders on CME FedWatch increasing the odds of rates holding steady in July from 75% to 95% immediately following the report. Consequently, the probability of a September rate cut declined from 95% to 78%. Analysts at HTX Research had previously noted that a strong jobs report could trigger a technical correction for BTC if it breaks below the $104,000 support level.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, two Bitcoin wallets that had been dormant for 14 years have moved 20,000 BTC, valued at over $2 billion. These coins were acquired in 2011 when BTC was priced around $0.78, representing a potential 140,000-fold return and creating a strong incentive to sell. For traders, the critical detail is that these funds were transferred to new, non-exchange addresses, not to exchanges for immediate liquidation. While the market is buzzing with this news and BTC is trading around $107,691 after a 2% drop, this on-chain movement does not currently signal an imminent sell-off, but rather an action that warrants close monitoring for future volatility.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, recent softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data is acting as a significant bullish catalyst for Bitcoin (BTC). Matt Mena, a crypto research strategist at 21Shares, stated that this development puts a $200,000 price for BTC by year-end 'firmly in play.' Mena further explained that a breakout above the $105,000-$110,000 range could trigger a rapid move to $120,000. This sentiment is echoed by a Coinbase Research report, which projects a constructive outlook for crypto in the second half of the year, citing an improving macroeconomic backdrop, growing corporate adoption facilitated by new accounting rules, and increasing regulatory clarity. The report highlights the progress of stablecoin legislation and the review of over 80 crypto ETF applications by the SEC as key structural tailwinds that could fuel the next leg of the rally.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, a recent strong auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury notes has temporarily undermined the narrative that investors are abandoning U.S. government debt for alternative assets like Bitcoin (BTC) and gold. The auction for $39 billion in notes saw demand outstrip supply by more than 2.5 times, as cited by Exante Data, with a historically low primary dealer takedown of just 9%, indicating robust investor demand. This strong uptake occurred despite the worsening U.S. fiscal situation, with national debt now exceeding $36 trillion. While the successful auction challenges the immediate capital flight theory, some analysts maintain that the growing debt, which costs $1 trillion annually to service, reinforces the long-term case for Bitcoin as a hedge against a potential fiscal crisis. Traders are now watching the upcoming 30-year bond sale for further signals on investor confidence.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the weakening U.S. dollar, which has fallen to a three-year low against major currencies, is creating a significant opportunity for euro-pegged stablecoins. The analysis suggests that unpredictable U.S. policy has pushed global central bankers to diversify reserves into the euro, gold, and renminbi, a trend expected to spill over into DeFi (source: Reuters, via author). This shift is amplified by the European Union's pro-crypto stance, solidified by the MiCA framework, which provides regulatory clarity and allows issuers to get licensed. This gives MiCA-compliant stablecoins like EURC a competitive advantage over non-compliant ones such as Tether (USDT), which currently dominates nearly 70% of the market (source: @Andre_Dragosch). As major exchanges like Coinbase and OKX secure EU approval and the euro strengthens, the author predicts a substantial increase in the market share of EUR-pegged stablecoins by 2028, potentially threatening the long-held dominance of their USD counterparts.

According to Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise, the U.S. dollar index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since March 2022 has 'very bullish implications for global money supply growth and bitcoin.' The bull case for Bitcoin (BTC) is further supported by several key factors from traditional and crypto markets. Tech giant Nvidia (NVDA), which has a strong 90-day correlation of 0.80 with BTC, hit a new record high, signaling continued risk-on appetite, as noted in the source. Concurrently, bond markets are showing signs of an impending recession with a steepening yield curve, a historical precursor to economic downturns that can favor assets like Bitcoin, an observation highlighted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter. Institutional interest continues to grow, with JPMorgan filing a trademark for digital asset services and asset manager Purpose planning to launch a spot XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF) in Canada. Despite a rally in altcoins like XRP and LINK, Nansen research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard suggests a full-blown alt season is not yet here, as BTC remains the primary market driver. Bitfinex analysts noted that recent aggressive selling and a 'Fear' sentiment reading resemble past capitulation setups that often mark local bottoms, suggesting a potential for recovery if BTC can hold the $102,000-$103,000 support zone.