Bitcoin Surges to $110,988 as July Volatility Looms - Here is Why

Bitcoin Reaches $110,988 as Market Dynamics Shift

Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable resilience, currently trading at $110,988.93, representing a solid 1.75% gain over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin is up nearly 3% over the past 24 hours, currently trading just above $111,100, briefly touching $12,000 to hit a fresh all-time high.[4] The cryptocurrency is maintaining its position near record highs as institutional adoption continues to accelerate.

Recent Market Developments

The crypto market has been energized by several key developments this week. They've also found favor with traditional finance; spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund net inflows in 2025 have totaled $14.4 billion through July 3[1], indicating sustained institutional interest.

Policy Catalysts Driving Momentum

July is shaping up to be a potentially volatile month for bitcoin, driven by Trump administration's policies[7]. Three critical dates are shaping market sentiment:

1. July 9 Tariff Deadline: Another key date looming is the July 9 tariff deadline, which could see more aggressive trade posturing from Trump[7]
2. July 22 Crypto Executive Order: July 22 is the final deadline for action on long-awaited crypto executive order, with potential updates on the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve[7]
3. Budget Bill Impact: The bill, which could widen the U.S. deficit by $3.3 trillion, is seen by some as bullish for scarce assets like BTC[7]

Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Foundation

The establishment of the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve continues to provide long-term bullish sentiment. With a fixed supply of 21 million coins, there is a strategic advantage to being among the first nations to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The United States currently holds a significant amount of bitcoin but has not maximized its strategic position as a unique store of value in the global financial system[6].

Technical Analysis: Strong Bullish Setup

Price Action and Key Levels

• Current Price: $110,988.93
• 24h Range: $108,503.00 - $111,999.79
• 24h Volume: $2.08 billion
• Trend: Strong Bullish

Moving Average Analysis

The moving average structure confirms the bullish momentum: - Price above all major MAs: BTC trades above SMA7 ($109,256), SMA20 ($107,377), and SMA_50 ($106,768) - Golden Cross intact: The 50-day MA remains well above the 200-day MA ($96,673), confirming the long-term uptrend

Momentum Indicators

• RSI (14): 61.41 - Healthy bullish momentum without overbought conditions
• MACD: Bullish with histogram at 323.91, indicating strengthening momentum
• Stochastic: %K at 85.35 suggests strong buying pressure

Bollinger Bands Assessment

• Current Position: %B at 0.87 indicates BTC is trading in the upper portion of the band
• Price: $110,988 vs Upper Band at $112,303 - room for further upside
• Volatility: ATR at $2,378 suggests moderate volatility

Market Structure Analysis

A steady stream of sales by long-time whales — miners, offshore funds and anonymous wallets — is being met almost one-for-one by demand from institutional players like ETFs, corporates and asset managers. The result: Bitcoin is struggling to break out of its record high around $110,000, volatility is evaporating, and its place in the investment landscape is being reshaped[5].

This redistribution from early holders to institutional players represents a maturation of the Bitcoin market, potentially providing a more stable foundation for future growth.

Trading Recommendations

Bullish Scenario (Primary)

Entry Range: $109,000 - $110,500 Target 1: $112,000 (Previous ATH) Target 2: $115,000 (Extension level) Stop Loss: $107,800

Rationale: - Strong technical setup with RSI room to run - Institutional buying pressure continues - Policy catalysts provide fundamental support

Risk Management

• Position size: 2-3% of portfolio maximum
• Monitor July 9 and July 22 for volatility spikes
• This suggests that the price is entering the exhaustion zone, hinting at a potential correction in the shorter term[8]

Alternative Scenario

If BTC breaks below $108,500, expect pullback to $106,000-$107,000 support zone before resuming the uptrend.

Outlook and Price Targets

Bitcoin price prediction for July 2025 is expected upside target of 2%-5% with a target of $110,500 by mid-July[7]. However, given the current price already exceeds this target, momentum could carry BTC toward $115,000-$120,000 in the near term.

Long-term projections remain bullish, with By the end of 2025, we expect Bitcoin to have posted another record value of around $150,000, with a potential low of $60,000 acting as key support[1].

Key Risks to Monitor

1. Seasonal Weakness: July historically being one of the quietest months, accounting for only 6.1% of the annual volume[8]
2. Overbought Conditions: Bitcoin's relative strength index, or RSI, displays near overbought conditions in four out of six timeframes[8]
3. Policy Uncertainty: Tariff decisions and crypto executive order outcomes

Conclusion

Bitcoin's current position at $110,988 represents a healthy consolidation near all-time highs, supported by strong institutional demand and favorable policy developments. The technical setup remains bullish, though traders should prepare for increased volatility around key policy dates. The long-term outlook remains exceptionally positive, with Bitcoin's role as a strategic reserve asset becoming increasingly recognized globally.

This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consider your risk tolerance before making investment decisions.