Bitcoin September Curse? Predicting BTC Price Using Comprehensive Historical Data

September's Historical Downtrend

Over the nine-year period from 2014 to 2022, Bitcoin's September performance has largely been bearish. The closing price in September was often lower than the opening price, indicating a general downtrend for the month.

Bitcoin Price Year-by-Year Analysis

2014: Opened at $479 and closed at $391, a decline of 18.37%.

2015: Opened at $230 and closed at $236, a slight increase of 2.6%. This year is an exception to the general downtrend.

2016: Opened at $570 and closed at $608, an increase of 6.67%. Another exception to the downtrend.

2017: Opened at $4,734 and closed at $4,326, a decline of 8.62%. This year saw a significant intra-month drop of nearly 40%.

2018: Opened at $7,015 and closed at $6,597, a decline of 5.96%.

2019: Opened at $9,593 and closed at $8,298, a decline of 13.49%.

2020: Opened at $11,658 and closed at $10,778, a decline of 7.55%.

2021: Opened at $47,118 and closed at $43,834, a decline of 6.97%.

2022: Opened at $20,049 and closed at $19,429, a decline of 3.09%.

Average September Decline

Excluding the two years (2015 and 2016) where Bitcoin saw an increase in September, the average decline for the remaining years is approximately 9.03%. 

Soruce: TradingView

Year-by-Year Amplitude Analysis:

For Bitcoin, the month of September has historically been characterized by significant price fluctuations. A detailed examination of the past nine years reveals the amplitude of these price movements, providing a clearer picture of the cryptocurrency's September behavior. Below uses formula: (High - Low) / Low.

2014: Bitcoin experienced an amplitude of 36.16%, swinging between a low of $365 and a high of $497.

2015: The amplitude was more subdued this year, recorded at 10.31%, with the price oscillating between $223 and $246.

2016: Bitcoin's amplitude stood at 10.95%, as the price moved between $566 and $628.

2017: This year saw a dramatic amplitude of 67.43%, with Bitcoin's price ranging from $2,973 to a high of $4,979.

2018: The amplitude was 21.62%, as Bitcoin's price varied between $6,094 and $7,411.

2019: Bitcoin experienced a significant amplitude of 41.97%, with the price fluctuating between $7,714 and $10,949.

2020: The amplitude for this year was 22.60%, as Bitcoin's price moved within the range of $9,825 and $12,065.

2021: Bitcoin's amplitude was recorded at 33.81%, with prices swinging between $39,573 and $52,956.

2022: The amplitude stood at 25.47%, as Bitcoin's price varied between $18,157 and $22,781.'

​Below uses formula: (High - Low) / ( (High + Low)/2 ).

2014: The amplitude was 28.91%, with Bitcoin prices ranging between a low of $365 and a high of $497.

2015: Bitcoin's amplitude stood at 10.14%, oscillating between $223 and $246.

2016: The amplitude for the year was 10.77%, as Bitcoin's prices moved from a low of $566 to a high of $628.

2017: Bitcoin experienced an amplitude of 50.15%, with prices fluctuating between $2,973 and $4,979.

2018: The amplitude for the year was 20.18%, as Bitcoin's prices varied between $6,094 and $7,411.

2019: Bitcoin saw an amplitude of 33.33%, with prices ranging from $7,714 to $10,949.

2020: The amplitude for the year stood at 20.41%, as Bitcoin's prices oscillated between $9,825 and $12,065.

2021: Bitcoin's amplitude was 28.28%, with prices moving between $39,573 and $52,956.

2022: The amplitude for the year was 22.22%, as Bitcoin's prices varied between $18,157 and $22,781.

Average September Amplitude

The average amplitude for Bitcoin in September over the years 2014 to 2022 using the traditional formula is approximately 29.92%. Using the alternative formula, the average amplitude is approximately 24.91%

Current Bitcoin Data

Bitcoin kicked off September 2023 with an opening price of $25,927. Despite reaching a monthly high of $26,429, the cryptocurrency experienced a dip, recording a low of $25,333. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $25,850.

As September progresses, Bitcoin, market analysts have projected potential low points for Bitcoin by the close of September.

Predicting the Future Based on Historical Trends

Historical Declines: Delving into past performances, Bitcoin's most pronounced September decline was -3.09% in 2022. If 2023 mirrors this trend, Bitcoin could potentially settle around the $25,107 mark by month-end.

The average decline over the years hovers at approximately -9.22%. If this average is indicative of this year's performance, Bitcoin might conclude September near $23,530.

Amplitude Analysis: Utilizing the alternative amplitude formula, Bitcoin's amplitude for September 2018 was discerned to be approximately 19.51%. The most restrained September amplitude was recorded in 2015 at 10.31%. If this month's price movements align with this subdued amplitude, predominantly in the downward trajectory, Bitcoin's valuation could diminish to $23,240 by the end of September.

Factoring in the average amplitude over the years, which stands at approximately 27.21%, a worst-case scenario could see Bitcoin descending to a concerning $18,860 by month's close.

However, Bitcoin's price has the potential to defy historical trends and close September above $25,927, akin to the positive performances observed in 2015 and 2016.

While these projections provide a lens into historical trends, the inherently volatile nature of cryptocurrencies suggests that actual outcomes may vary. Investors and traders are advised to exercise prudence and remain abreast of market developments.

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